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What is haphazard is the exit. I have 4 defined set ups I can use...only one is a break out and I used that today early on. The others revolve around pull backs of some kind. Lately, CL has liked the deep pull backs so been looking for those. Outcome bias is slowly drifting away from my thinking and instead is being replaced with the need to totally lock into the idea that price must show itself behaving in a manner consistent with what I expect to see around certain levels. Don't trade until that happens.
The haphazard exits is born of a lack of confidence in my ability to see where I should get out. Or a defined mathematical method of exiting a trade based on time, distance or measured moves. I think if I had a defined exit strategy, this holding thing would diminish in importance....
Currently I am working on an exit strategy...well two to be fair...one a straight scalping exit and the other a more dynamic one based on levels and possible fib numbers... I have used both and both have merit. Just need to decide.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Today I thought about trapped traders....and I confess I tried to trap some of them and ended up trapped myself. The short at the top of the range I figured people would be going short right there and keep the stops tight. I wanted a pause at that level, a flash of price above the level and a continuation halfway down the previous leg before continuing on to the HOD.....but that didn't happen. Instead it paused and went down with no cash dash above the level....when it did get there, it turned into a trend continuation break out level and I recognized it as such and was able to reverse. This same thing happened earlier before the break up this morning....
I also thought about pattern projection...how many bars would it take to get to the levels? What levels would need to be honored for that to pattern to hold, what would I do if/when...etc....does this mean I am thinking more like a trader? Not sure but in two solid years of trading, those thoughts have never entered my mind...so something has shifted.....so far it feels hopeful.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
hello Panda, regarding your large Stoploss size on 5 minute CL chart, have you noticed that the majority of the good trades has a MAE of around 10 ticks? that is, if your timing was right, the trade usually takes off with a maximum 10 or 11 ticks retracement after entry.
I have to leave the office in about three minutes.....so no narrative today...Suffice to say I saw resistance on the 30M chart and shorted the breakdown...should have taken it right at resistance but oh well....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Nice job spotting that short early, and being very fast on the trigger. It didnt give you much time, so you had to have the mind set that you were prepared for it. No guarantees of course, but you had to be prepared to take the loss, if it reversed.
