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DAX starts (cash 9:00h) -67 points lower (gap) to low of yesterday. After cash hours it was even -158 points. Which will be the leading indicator for a Wednesday.
Speech of FED Powell 15:00 this afternoon about the economy in USA. Will shake markets for sure.
Indexes Asia this morning from -0,5% to -1,5%, Singapore -5,8%!
The red carpet: Heavy weight in the DAX "VW" announced after having restarted production in Germany (Wolfsburg) to cut down the production again because of low demand of new cars (aka zero interest).
Thyssen Krupp announced a loss of 900 M € in first quarter and second will be not better. Some cruising ship companies and TUI say the red numbers will stay longer... Large sellers announce to close many shops in cities. Transporters (cargo and persons) talk of low demand which might hold longer (people take the car or bicycle for work instead of public transport or taxi).
List doesn't end here:
No work - no money to buy especially food or pay the rent for house and car etc. which leads to a 2 group system of those that still have money and the growing mass of people without. This is the really threat to every economy. As it is today a worldwide phenomenon it will be a part of change in the systems. For the trader who will see melting stock prices of before stable companies.
DAX short 9:30 to 15:30 PROLONGED to 17:00
entry @ 10615
exit @ 10596
result +19 points ***
GFIs1
*** edit 17:29 - just to fall to 10528 in last 30m... haha...!
Well that's the traders hard bread to eat
Finally: traders now have learned to where the journey goes: over the red carpet!
DAX came with speed down on Powell's FED speech from yesterday. From last of April to today (half a month) the DAX lost from a intermediate high now -7.7%. Which shows the better picture than the hype for long with free money in last months.
Of course the bottom is far away: many out of business companies are at start in all countries because the liquidity trap came into play. It is not the result of Corona but it shows now the "real world" with all the risks that were taken without thinking - means burning tax payers money.
We will see a very dry summer in weather and stocks and the harvest in 3rd quarter will be a horror.
Better to be a day trader on indexes than an investor in stocks today.
DAX short 9:30 to 16:00
entry @ 10470
exit @ 10507 (SL)
result -37 points
GFIs1
Germany: press conference about economic data 10:00
BIP first quarter 2020 compared to last quarter 2019:
• Germany: -2,2%
• France: -5,8%
• Italy: -4,7%
Important: in Germany the lockdown started Mid March. The neighbour countries had the start of the crisis earlier. For April some peak (worst) numbers are sure.
For the first semester a very strong down is to note. The second semester will not reverse the current situation.
Consumer numbers in all 3 countries on a historical low. The quickly rising unemployment will not support a rise in consumption.
DAX started with a up gap of around 1% into the new week.
Price still in the middle of daily Kumo - means erratic movements in next days.
Powell (US FED) foresees a 30% decrease in US BIP and means the negative season might stay into the next year.
DAX short 10:30 to 13:00
entry @ 10765
exit @ 10765
result 0 points
GFIs1
...still interesting to see amid so many black outlooks of the industry that stocks still are rising. Example Ryanair annouces loss of 200M in 1st quarter - stock price up 4,7%...
The good news are the thinner restrictions for June/July/August to see possible flights for summer holidays in Europe.
NOTE to whom it may concern: not every Monday during a crisis brings a winner
DAX had a rally on Monday to 11091 high (cash hours) and closed above 11k.
With this the price came again out north of daily Kumo:
Will be interesting to see where the journey goes today as having maybe two subsequent occurencies of not leaving Kumo in total is a bad sign. Especially on a Kumo with a flat upper line. Can be interpreted like a double top.
In fact in the daily exists still a non closed gap at 115xx. This is indeed not to far away.
Unfortunately my rules for Monday did not contain a rule for this strong move up and just a zero result was made. If price will be above daily Kumo the volatility will be lower and more in one direction. Nevertheless the next few weeks are important. Low volume in July and August are not indicative.
DAX short 9:30 to 16:00
entry @ 11121
exit @ 11013
result +108 points
GFIs1
edit 9:32 - gap in daily not closed
gap to yesterday closed with start of this trade
edit 10:30 first dive into daily Kumo
edit 11:30 11k seems to be history for the moment - price slips lower
NOTE:
Thursday (ascension) partly closed in Germany. XETRA open but very low volume foreseen.
***
