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Done trading for the day. I started out reading the market well, and then I honed in too much on what happened in the last 15-20 minutes that I forgot to see the big picture. I should add some sort of reminder so that I don't forget to look at the big picture
Oh man as soon as I saw my fill on this I was just like noooo!!! lol that's too high. I got stopped out so fast I had no time to take a screenshot
I could've increased my stop but honestly I felt that it was way too risky and I had no idea we were going to have such a bull open
I didn't get a picture but I got filled @ 4745, about 4 pts higher than I wanted to!!! My stop was 4740.75 and got hit within 19 seconds
Trade grade - Ok
It may or may not have been part of the plan
Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51/49 gamble
Decent (but not good) target and/or stop - This is what made this an 'ok' trade, just a very bad entry and not a good stop lol
Second RTH trade
I don't get upset by the first trade being stopped out so fast and I know that I still have a very good setup so I go ahead and take in a second trade on the same setup, but wait for a much better fill
Trade grade - Excellent
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
Everything a good trade has but also adapted to the market either by modifying entry for better potential, or exited early/late depending on the market conditions - I exited later for a better profit so this fits into the 'excellent' criteria
Third RTH trade
I was waiting for the market to come up slightly above the PDH as it was moving so fast, but that didn't happen.
I waited a bit to see, maybe it will come up, let's give the market a bit of time, but nothing.
So I bit the bullet and took a not ideal fill in order to get into the trade.
Stop filled
Target was a bit too high I guess, about 3.5 pts too high. If I had a better fill this might've had its target filled. Oh well
The good thing is that I lowered my stop and although I only made like 3pts profit, it's better than losing 5 pts of my own capital lol
Trade grade - Ok
It may or may not have been part of the plan
Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51/49 gamble
Decent (but not good) target and/or stop - This is what made it an 'OK' trade for me above from anything else, my entry and my target were not the greatest, and cost me some winnings
Fourth RTH trade
So I'm with my threshold of being able to take a 4th trade, not sure if I will take one or not. But my thinking is that if I'm going to take a 4th trade, it's got to be a really good setup
The setup is hit and the entry I wanted at ~4781 for my 3rd trade is touched, I'm able
Lowered stop filled, at least I didn't lose my money
Trade grade - Good
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
Fifth RTH trade
My stop before hand got stopped out so fast and the market moved up that I felt the indication a bull trend day was too strong to pass up.
I should not have taken this trade, win or lose.
Thankfully, I lost the trade. This will help reinforce the fact that I should not break my rules
Trade grade - Really Bad
Not in plan
Knew I shouldn’t have entered - Oh boy did I
Made execution mistakes - Didn't really made execution mistakes, so it could be a 'bad' trade, but I'll leave it as really bad since I broke one of my rules to get into it
Psychology goals for the day
0 FOMO trades- Failed, on my last trade ahhhh why!!!
0 Emotional trades- Passed
Maximum 4 RTH trades. However, you can only take a 4th trade if losing it would still net you 0.75% for the day- Failed, I took a 5th trade -why!!!! lol
Do not get greedy, watch the market and set targets based on that - Do not set targets based on 'hope'- Passed
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed, you could argue about the 5th trade but that would be me lying to myself. I consciously made the decision to enter into a 5th trade
Overall, another positive day. We are 7/8 for positive days since last Monday, so I'm pretty happy about that. Today I also felt very calm throughout my trading, but I did get a bit anxious when the market almost hit my targets and then strongly moved the other way
But on the downside I did break my rule of not taking a 5th trade which was also a FOMO trade, so that one trade alone messed up my report card. It's nothing major that is going to ruin my mood, but yeah, let's try to avoid those in the future ok SoftSoap?
See you tomorrow!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
10,000 VIEWS!!!
Wow guys, when I started this I wasn't expecting to get much (if any) views, so I'm glad that you keep coming back! I hope you've been able to learn from my mistakes
Data Thursday is here! I don't know if anybody calls it that, but it seems like Thursday mornings we almost always see some big ticket data items. So I'm going to start calling it that
Slowest ON session we have had in the last 2 weeks
Biggest NQ components are ~ balance with MSFT being up 1%
CSCO is down almost 5% and REGN is down almost 4%
CPI info came in ~ expected
Housing starts are up a lot more than expected
Jobless claims in came in better than expected
News are good and market didn't really react much at the time, and market just kept on dropping
I guess Yellen was somewhat Hawkish during her speech today, which should be expected as the markt expectation of a rate hike in December is almost certain
The market should start to focus on shifting towards preparing for the move in December
I have a personal bias but I think sharing it on my journal would do me more harm than good, as it might psychologically force me to try and take my trades in a way that aligns with that. I've done it in the past and it has hurt me, so I'll pass on it lol. Not that I'm some sort of pundit who knows what they are talking about anyway
News
Nothing noteworthy after the opening bell, everything newsworthy (ECB minutes and US data, and wtf a Yellen speech? I swear that wasn't on Econoday before)
Market opens up bearish until it finds strong support, it then bounces around between that and 4800
Market opens up bullish until it finds strong resistance, it then bounces between that and 4775
Market opens up bearish until it finds strong support, it trends bull following that
Market opens up bullish until it finds strong resistance, it then trends bear for the rest of the day
Trend bull day - Are we back into the times of good news = good news? Okay let's buy
Trend bear day - This data is great, but it points further to why we will have a rate hike in December, NQ is too close to all-time highs for a rate hike and a new president, let's sell
Setups I'll take today
~4850
LF Short
Exhaustion, End of day, reversal, are good setups here
~4825
LF Short
Exhaustion, End of day, reversal, are good setups here
Stop behind 4830 is ideal
Safe target is 4803, stretch target is 4692, super stretch target is 4781 - Secure 10/15 pts of profit if going for the 2/3 target respectively
~4800
LF Short
LF reversal signs
Stop behind 4806 is ideal, although it might be difficult to get
Target 4777 is safe, 4762 is stretch but secure 10pts of profit if you are going for the stretch target
Be patient with this setup, and it's okay if you miss it
~4800
LF Long
You are looking for a break out
Stop behind 4795 is ideal
Safe target is 4814, stretch target is 4819, and 3rd target is 4824, but secure 12 pts of profit to go for 3rd target and watch the 4815 area closely for 2nd target
~4775
LF Long
You are looking for some strong reversal signs here
Market sentiment should feel relatively bullish
Stop behind 4773 is a must, behind 4770 is ideal
Safe target is 4793, stretch target is 4798, super stretch target, and only take if a break-out is likely (strong force) is 4813. But you need to watch 4800, 4805 and 4810 areas very closely
~4775
LF Short
LF break down setup
Stop behind 4781 is ideal
Watch 14 day RTH VPOC of 4760 for a chance of reversal - also to gauge the strength of the move
Safe target is 4761, stretch target is 4756, super stretch target is 4751, 4th target is 4742 (secure 10, 12, and 15 pt for the 2/3/4 targets)
~4750
LF Long
You are looking for strong reversal signs
You want to see force coming in to buy heavily
Be prepared to pass up as 4740 is a stronger zone
Target 4768 is safe, 4774 is stretch
~4740
LF Long
You are looking for a reversal setup here
Stop behind 4735 is ideal
~4740
LF Short
Look for continued bear move
Stop behind 4745 is ideal
Safe target is 4726, Stretch target is 4721, 3rd target and only take if bear trend day is 4713
3 RTH trades maximum - only take a 3rd if you would still be up 0.75% after a loss - This is one trade lower as you took 2 small losers in the pre-session
Do not get greedy with targets
Deliberate thinking for all trades!
Let's do this!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Sometimes the market beats you up slowly and you ache for days
Today the market beat me and it was quick and almost painless
I am done trading 2 minutes into the open
2 minutes and 39 seconds to be exact
Honestly what a waste of time to do all my prep, just to be done in 3 minutes lol
Today is a great example of how the little psychological things can have a big impact on your trading. Since today I got screwed up by my emotions (and my trade screenshots are pretty useless), I will focus on how I felt today.
I came in, saw the good news and said hmmm I think today these good news will be bad news, the market is down so let's short.
So I shorted but there was a pullback that immediately took out my stop, probably one of the ways that I hate to lose lol, within seconds.
My mind kept thinking about how I wish I didn't take the first trade, but the bear inside me still said "it's okay, the day isn't over yet, short, short, short"
So I waited for the pullback to be over, and I shorted. I got a very good entry point and the market started to go my way immediately. The market moved down 8 pts and I felt good. Yeah I messed up with the first trade but I'll make it up and more with this one, no problem.
Everything was good for like 25 minutes, and then all of a sudden, in 1 minute the market reverses 6 points and puts me at almost break even.One thing I'm starting to note is that one of the biggest things that tilts me emotionally is when the market goes my way for a decent amount of time and THEN reverses on me very fast
My heart races, I start to get nervous, all I start thinking about is 'omg, why didn't I exit earlier, why didn't I enter earlier, why was my target so high, why didn't I lower my stop'
All the things that I didn't do start racing through my mind
I know this is wrong, so in my psychology prep I always tell myself the following in the morning:
This is a bit specific to wishing I was in a trade, but it also applies to wishing I managed a trade differently. I will change it to also take into account managing a trade differently.
For some reason though I still get very nervous when this happens to me. As I start to think about it, I think it may be because I hatch my chickens before they hatch too soon. The market goes my way 10 pts and I'm already feeling like I won the 18 pt trade, so when it goes against me it completely shocks my mind and for some reason puts me into 'fear mode'.
Today I recognized I was in fear mode, and I walked away to try and calm myself down, which was good.
HOWEVER, I totally misjudged how much time I had before the market opened. So here I am, trying to calm myself down and then I look at the time on my stove and it is 9:30!!!
So in a second my body goes into fight or flight mode and I am PANICKING about my trade that could still be open and about missing the market open.
So once I get to my desk, my stop has been hit, the market open is very volatile and I am in panic. It doesn't take a genius to know what happens next
The right thing to do here would be to say okay, my stop is hit I am not in a trade, and I am too nervous to trade right now, let's walk away and come back in 30 minutes. The day just started.
However, I was in such a panic that I immediately hit sell because I felt bearish today, and then that gets stopped out in seconds, and I hit it AGAIN.
Of course that gets stopped out in seconds as well
So I look over to my morning prep and I glance at my rules. Did I say 3 ONLY if I would take 0.75% or can I take another trade? Looking back I was like an addict who just wanted to be in a trade
Thankfully JUST A TAD of reason is left in my head and tells me NO- you have already messed up today, you will at least follow this rule today.
So I minimize my charts and walk away for trading for the day. It doesn't feel good to be done so soon, but I am also not in the right state of mind to continue trading. Some days you are better off being as far away from hitting the sell button as possible.
0 Emotional trades- Failed 3/4 my trades were emotional
3 RTH trades maximum - only take a 3rd if you would still be up 0.75% after a loss - This is one trade lower as you took 2 small losers in the pre-session- Passed, I am walking away and I did not take a 3rd RTH trade
Do not get greedy with targets- Passed, no time to get greedy with trades lol
Deliberate thinking for all trades!- Failed, took some intuitive trades today
Here's a new psychology goal for me just for the rest of the day - Do NOT look at the markets whatsoever as it will tempt you to potentially take another trade
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Weak open, uncertain where the market will go, then move down to ON low, bounce back from that until we get to the 4840-4850 area, trend bear for rest of day after that
Weak open, uncertain where the market will go, then move up to the 4840-4850 area and trend bear after that. We see a pullback / potential stop around the ON low, but possibly continue to ~4800
Strong bull open to 4840, then even stronger bear move down, we could potentially break the 4800 and head to 4780
Strong bull open, we struggle around a bit between 4840-4850 but we don't see any OTF stepping in to counter the trend. We break out of this area and we aim towards the monthly high of ~4880
Bear trend day - We start strong bear, we break ON low easily and then continue to 4800. We pullback a bit from there but then continue the bear trend
Setups I'll take today
~4900
LF Short
Exhaustion, reversal, those setups are good
Can enter preemptively, specially late in the day
~4880
LF Short
You want to see strong exhaustion signs or at least decent reversal signs
Stop behind the 83 area is a must
Safe target is 4861, stretch target is 4856, 3rd target is to hold until the end of the day
~4840-4850
LF Long
You are taking a break-out setup here
Entry point and stop will be extremely difficult to get there
Do NOT enter a pre b-out setup, it's just too hard to gauge as the resistance zone is very large
Target ~4867 safe, ~4874 stretch
You must be moving yours top consistently as the market can reverse at anytime, specially if we are into the afternoon session
~4840-4850
LF Short
You are primarily looking for strong reversal signs
You can also look for OTF exhaustion signs
If OTF players step in, then it is ideal
Entry and stop will be very difficult here as the area is 13 pts so it's way too big to capture all with your risk parameters
Try your best to get as good of an entry as possible
If you just aren't comfortable picking a top for this setup then just let the price drop and take it as it's trending down. Won't be ideal entry but if the trend down is strong enough it should be good enough
IF no OTF players then aim for 4821 target, if we see some OTF activity then aim for at least ON, and as low as 4806
There's some strong potential here, but don't let greed get to you
Seems like your second scenario has been spot on. If I would have read your thread earlier I would have had a bunch of conflicting theories. I try not too log in pre market , even though sometimes I still do. Hope it went well for you today.
"It's not about being right or wrong, it's about how much money you make when you're right, and how much you don't lose when you're wrong"
Yeah it has been spot on so far, we will see what happens next although I'm done for the day. Too much chop and although it looks like we will move bull and end between 4820 and 4830, that's not strong enough for me to want to commit to. Specially since the market is currently in the middle of the last 2 hr chop (4810), and I could see us getting close to the 4800 area again. Also, there's the chance that this chop is just the market taking a breather before continuing the bear trend. Sometimes you just gotta know when to take the money and run
Some people like to read other's journals to see what they have missed, I personally choose not to read anybody's plans before the EU close as I don't want them to influence my thinking. I don't care if I'm right or wrong, as I can figure out what I did right / wrong later and change it. But if I get influenced by other trader's journals then I don't know what was mine and what was theirs, so it makes improving a bit difficult. This is just my opinion though.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
When the session opened up the profile was looking bearish and boy did I want to enter into a trade ~ 4833. The market kept selling off any time that we got close to that area, so I wanted to get in but this was not a good area to enter.
I told myself, the market will either shatter it and trend down, or it will pass it and hit the 4840 and you'll regret taking it.
My FOMO said take it, the logical side in me said 'there will be more opportunities today, it's ok if you miss out on one of them, this looks like a gamble'.
I'm glad logic prevailed because I would've been stopped out in minutes
First trade taken and second trade taken (scale in)
Just going to add them in together as it's really one trade. However right now I'm counting my scale-ins as a separate trade, because they are all discretionary and truly do require me to think about them separately.
So here I'm thinking that we might hit the 4800 mark, and I see the market slowing down a bit, and say ok I'm going to go in on the next pullback.
I thought the pullback was over so I get in, but nope. The pullback was just beginning
Honestly I felt that we should continue this, to at least the 4806 area. But I am not strong enough psychologically right now to hold out for that. Here's why:
If the market turned around and stop out my stops, yes I would make money, but all I would think about is how greedy I got and that would tilt me. If the market doesn't get close to my stop but it goes against me, I would get even MORE nervous than previously, and I MIGHT exit out with panic. The only way I would feel comfortable is if the pullback was less than 5 minutes, but that doesn't seem likely.
The market did continue, but my lowered stop wouldn't have handled the pullback. It wouldn't have been that much of a difference, but I do feel that I made the right call psychologically.
Initial Entry - Trade grade - Excellent
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
Everything a good trade has but also adapted to the market either by modifying entry for better potential, or exited early/late depending on the market conditions
This trade started being graded 'Ok' because of my entry point, but as I moved my target down it became good, and finished in excellent because I nearly doubled my target while still managing it properly.
Scale in - Trade grade - Ok
It may or may not have been part of the plan
Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51/49 gamble
Decent (but not good) target and/or stop
Psychology goals for the day
0 FOMO trades- Passed
0 Emotional trades- Passed
4 RTH trades maximum - Only take a 4th trade if you would still be up 0.75% after a loss- Passed
Do not 'look' for a 3rd and 4th setup, let the trade come to you. Set alarms and go set up your christmas tree or something- Passed
Do not get greedy with targets. Okay this one is tough to gauge. I got greedy with my 2nd trade, that one I won't deny. However I don't think I got greedy with my targets, they were modified based on the current price action and market sentiment, so I don't know. I'll leave it as failed though because I think I meant to write do not get greedy period .- Failed
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
Overall it was a great way to end the week. I'm pretty sure this is the 2nd best week of my trading career (ROI-wise only) but I won't be able to confirm until my numbers come in tomorrow morning.
Cheers!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Overview of the week
I had a rough start to the week. I took 18 trades on Monday, and some of them were FOMO and emotional trades, and most of them were intuitive.
I was focusing too much on trying to adapt to the crazy volatility thinking that all week was going to be like Monday / Friday. I didn't feel that I adapted fast enough after my Monday performance and started to panic a bit.
I panicked enough that I started a thread on the psychology management forums.
I posted a similar question in my journal, but I wanted to get the input from a wider audience.
A bit of background
I'm a rookie trader, and I started fully live trading ~August (I took some trades starting May, but wasn't consistently trading …
You should check it out if you have time. The more experienced guys on there pretty much just told me to calm down as this isn't that frequent
After that I was able to bring myself back down to Earth a bit, and my trading got better from there. Which was good because I don't know that I would've done well this week if I kept trading as I did on Monday.
Overall this is my 2nd best ever week ROI wise so I can't complain with how it ended.
Goals set for this week
I didn't set weekly goals this time around, so I need to make sure I set those right this week.
But I had FOMO and emotional trades, and I did not engage deliberate thinking in all trades.
Higher volatility means I win less but make more on my winners (until I learn to adapt properly). Payoff Ratio 3.4 is really good, as this also takes into account any trades I just barely broke even on. My best trade this week was 8:1 Reward to risk, which I'll take any day of the week.
Some people are probably not comfortable with losing 60%+ of their trades, but honestly that doesn't bother me at all. But if the win ratio starts dropping below 25% that's when things start to south.
35 is more trades than I would like for a week, and I took 18 on Monday. For the other days I took ~ 4 trades per day, which is a reasonable number.
Out of those trades:
Excellent trades: 2
Good trades: 3
Ok trades: 24
Bad trades: 2
Really bad trades: 3
A lot of 'Ok' trades this week . This is more a reflection of me not categorizing them properly more than my trading, so I wouldn't read that much into this week's trades. Data capture takes a lot of work, and sometimes I get lazy
See you next week!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Lowest volume week that does not include a holiday in a long time
If we want to say election night was an outlier, then the mid-term range is between 4625 and 4920
4840-4850 looks strong, how we break it could show the sentiment for the week, and that could happen on Monday so keep an eye out for that
Market didn't really tell us much as to what the long-term trend looks like. It could still swing either strongly bull or bear either way, so do not set yourself on a certain bias. Trade what you see
Market hasn't been wanting to stay above the 4880 area or below the 4680 area for long, so keep that in mind
Honestly right now with very little news and US Thanksgiving on Thursday, go in expecting low range days. However, be prepared for a change in pace should fundamentals change
This to me feels like we are in the eye of the hurricane. We got big moves the week before election and extreme volatility the week of election. Last week was calm, this week is likely to be calm as well, and then we are getting close to the FOMC decision, OPEC meeting, and so on.
Thursday - Japan CPI @ 630 EST. But the markets are closed? or are they just closed during the RTH session? We'll see I guess
Thursday is a holiday - Markets are closed
Friday is Black Friday, and I'm told markets will be slow. I'll most likely be Christmas shopping so I don't think I'll trade it. Although I might be tempted to take a trade before I leave
No corporate earnings
Goals for the week
Update your expectations around risk management rules, grading trades, and managing trades
It's a 3 day week for you, find at least ONE day this week where you don't do ANYTHING trading-related. No looking at charts, no looking at stats, no looking at news, no reading trade-related FIO stuff, just relax.
Buy Jigsaw and start the learning process
Look into RBC US account for any recurring payments you may have, such as kinetick / IQFeed data
4 RTH trades maximum per day (Can only take a 4th if you would still be up 0.75% despite a loss) - Do not look for trades, let them come to you
I think I'm going to start separating the things I want to accomplish this week that are non-routine, and my daily psychology goals. We'll see how it works.
Cheers.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
