Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
French Cac has also had a breakout, but there is a high chance that it would develop into a false break out as it has traded into a strong resistance zone and it has only probed a few points above the prior high. If that break out were to be real, then the next target is 4963 area which is the next resistance zone in line.
From a short term perspective, I would still hold a bullish bias to it so long as the clear break out level at 4880 being held as support. The level and zone are noticeably clearer in Cac than those in DAX. Therefore, there is very little excuse for overlooking good zones to initiate your trade from. All you have to do is to buy the retest of the break out zone at the first test in the anticipation of the bulls trying to hold the bullish break. If that level were to give away, then the last break would turn into a false break out and the bias would be shifted to the down side.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
THe dutch index shares a similar structure to that of Cac.
I am going to buy the first retest of the break out line. Due to the shallow break out distance, the fib of the break out leg is not on my concern.
In the meantime, I would be mindful of the possibility of a false break out. Once the price trade back into the 511 range, then a top is in which is going to signal an end of the month long bullish drive of the EUropean stocks.
DAX has traded into the Q4 2018 VPOC and Vwap at 11320, which coincides with monthly R1.
A reaction is found. It should be the perfect location for the bears to initiate their shorts.
If that level is taken out with conviction then the bearish scenario would be delay for at least 1 month.
Yesterday was a bearish neutral day that DAX has build value lower than the day before with no overlapping value and range expansion happens to both sides of the initial balance.
This profile means both bears and bulls were present. It is the perfect reflection of the current state of the market which is sideways chop. Both bears and bulls have arguments for their side, but none of them have the conviction, at this moment, to take the market decisively to either direction.
Today all eyes would be on Apple's earning after the US close. I don't really expect either bulls or bears to make strong break out before that piece news if out. Hence I would fade the market from good quality zone from both direction.
On the down side, the 11150 is the break out zone that still has not been tested. I would expect the buyers to show up at the first test. To the upside 11250 and 11280 are good resistance zones that I could lean my shorts on.
From the higher time frame perspective, it is possible that DAX is making a bullish cup and handle formation.
Watch the break of that handle formation for a long.
Yesterday's drop has turned into dip buying opportunity for the funds as the ES is still trading in the last week's value area.
The risk appetite has been elevated running into the last week of Jan as there is no more (actually not yet) surprise to the downside anymore.
Given the many heavy weight news/earnings this week, my base case is still for ES to have the flat consolidation before the big short squeeze later this week after the new round of US china trade talks.
Yesterday the break of the bull flag formation in DAX was not very convincing as it lags significantly before its European peers like Cac and AEX.
Now it is back testing the upper edge of the flag formation and also retraced 78.6 fib of yesterday's advance.
It seems to me on the verge of a false break out, which could turn into one of the strongest bearish pattern.
Given this precarious situation, I am going to be ultra careful with my longs in DAX.
The Dutch index of AEX was full on bullish yesterday. It has formed a rising wedge in the H4 time frame.
In the Elliott wave terms, the rising wedge is called ending diagonal as it usually occurs in the last wave or the first wave.
It is very likely that it is in the wave 5 of the bullish run. I am looking to add to my short at the over throw of this ending diagonal formation.
