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Won two, lost one. The one I lost was a foolish mistake. Bought too close to VWAP for continuation even though a bounce was likely. Ended the day positive which was nice.
Still not confident in my entries/strategy. If I replayed the day would I take the same entries? Maybe not. And that is a problem. Off to market replay to build (what I hope to be) more confidence in my strategy. There are good things there, but need to filter out the bad and really have faith in the good. No real difference in ticks on my loser when I trail stop vs no trail yet. Sample size still small. Will continue to track.
Overall, a good day of trading. Any day I win is a good day. Any day I lose can be a good day if I learn something.
That's it for today!
10.21 MYM Trades 1-3
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
One trade taken today. My first real VWAP bounce trade taken (not in Market Replay). There was a lot of other support under the VWAP too. Had a hand-drawn line, reg open, and OR-L so felt better about it. Also had two volume spike bars leading up which led me to believe that price would reverse. On to the next day.
So next week is the week. Going to get my feet wet again. Going to give myself $10 loss limit per week. If I get a ton of slippage and only get one trade, so be it. Will switch to Sim if I hit my weekly loss limit. The goal is to make sure I don't develop bad habits in Sim by taking trades with little to no remorse.
What have I learned today? Well two wise men I know say that breakout trades are the sure way to failure. I think there is a lot of truth in that. I think the key is to wait for it to break out first then get in on 2nd leg. Anywho, took a breakout as my first trade even though we were clearly in a trading range. Would I have even considered that trade with real money? I'd hope not! 2nd trade was unsuccessful but really just lack of experience with that style of trading (I think). The exact same trade worked for 3rd and 4th trade of day so maybe luck or maybe need to do a better job of filtering out the bad trades.
All -in-all a good week. Sim account still hanging in there right around $2k. Started actually paying attention to volume and believe that adds some value. This weekend will probably go through the tedious task of just looking at the previous week charts and documenting the % of winners/losers for my desired entries based on my PT SL criteria.
Will also do some Market Replay as always. Wishing everyone an excellent weekend!
Took two trades today. 1st I was very pleased with. 2nd was right as I was logging in for work so wasn't 100% focused but that's no excuse. 1st one fit my setup criteria. 2nd one was pretty close. Only thing on 2nd one was that I sold right into Support. I also did not wait for increased volume. Sure enough the next bar after I enter was higher volume which means price is going the other direction (most of the time).
Lessons of the day:
1. Never trade market orders (works for many but does not fit my style). Limit Orders only
2. If I draw a S/R line, do not disregard it. Trust that I drew that line for a reason. The line should add value. If I'm just going to ignore it, I shouldn't even draw the line in the first place. I know some traders on FIO use different colors for lines that they view as "speed bumps" vs strong S/R but not sure if that will work for me. Maybe something to consider in future.
3. S/R lines are of greater importance than price action. Example #2 perfectly explains this. Got my perfect setup pretty much, however did not wait for price to clear my S/R line.
No real money today. Will probably wait until mid week for that. Also, I'm at 8 PT SL and 8 PT Target now, no trail.
Now time to watch the rest of this crazy day unfold.
Overall satisfied with trades today for most part. I have three charts I watch other than main chart. 5 min MYM, 1 hour MYM, and I just added a little ES one. I only have the ETH VWAP and Volume on that ES one.
It's common knowledge the stock indexes are intertwined and ES rules them all. Pretty much if ES is near a VWAP I'm watching and if ES has a Volume Spike I'm watching. My Dow chart is still my main focus. Anywho, trades attached with my elementary thought process.
Since I only trade first 30 minutes of day I've started just taking screenshots of each morning and reviewing what the best trades of that morning were, seeing what they have in common with previous days. I just have one big excel tab I can scroll through. It's similar to the journal but doesn't show trades I took, but rather trades that would have won and maybe I should have waited for. I think this adds more value to my market replay sessions so I'm not just mindlessly taking trades.
Two for two today. Have really been monitoring ES Volume and think it added value to my trades today. I've included my smaller side chart for reference (normally a bit smaller on my screen). Also I have this chart on right side of my screen so I can easily see MYM price and ES price at same time with out moving my head. Had it on left before and would lose track of MYM price.
Right around when I took my trades huge increase in volume on ES so once those bars close, it seems to propel the Dow (at least by a few ticks). Otherwise, made sure not to trade directly into one of my S/R lines so that's an improvement. There were a few trades that tempted me earlier but held off because of that.
What I'm really looking for now:
1. Volume Spike on ES and DOW around the same time.
2. No S/R in the way (No VWAP in the way on ES as well)
3. 2nd leg of breakout or potentially a bounce of S/R but not very good at those bounces at the moment.
Still unsure about my stop loss settings and probably will be for a while but I think more practice will help me out with that.
Tomorrow, if the conditions are right. I will take my first live trade in about a month or so. Just going to do my 8 SL 8 PT. If I lose $5 oh well. That's like an order at Dunkin Donuts. I'd rather win though.
Took two trades today on my live account. Won one and lost one. Result - Lost $1.14. I can live with that. I will still be trading Sim more than live because don't think I'm anywhere near ready but it was good to get back in there. Will try to do at least one live day a week.
Made one of the same mistakes I've made over and over again. Bought into a Resistance line on my first trade. One of these days I will learn to stop that.
The market was moving a little too fast for me this morning so while I was completely focused on the action, I didn't trade until it started cooling down. Was worried I'd easily get stopped out. Will definitely replay today a few times on market replay.
Have my little ES chart here so you can see what I was basing my entries on. That's almost the same size I have on my screen. A wee bit smaller.
Won two lost one today. Positive result. Overall a good week. Feel like I learned a thing or two this week. Maybe not, but I'm going to hold onto that feeling for a bit.
Trade notes attached. Took first trade as price looked like state of Kentucky. Kentucky in South indicating price going down. Just kidding. My attempt at a joke. Not very good!
Same criteria as always. Volume spikes, support resistance, etc. My 3rd trade was kind of questionable. My hand drawn S/R lines aren't 100% accurate. They are more areas so can be off by a few ticks. I took the trade anyway but might have reconsidered that one in future.
Will keep it short as it's Friday and lunch break is now over. Have a great weekend!
Don't know if I'll ever do 5 attachments again due to time but will today. Took 5 trades. Won 3 Scratched 1 and Lost 1. Good day. The one I lost was a mistake for sure. Did not wait for bar to close on ES. If ES moves by a tick it will move YM 2ish ticks normally so have to give a little buffer room and I did not give enough on my limit order.
Finally have my Stop Strategy figured out (in Sim at least). Sticking with it for the immediate future so it's one less thing I have to worry about it. Was testing it all weekend and came to my decision. If it's not as successful live then I may tweak a little but not much.
I have an initial stop of 10 ticks with a profit target of 8 ticks. Step 1 - Trailing 12 triggered at +4 Step 2 - Trailing 6 triggered at +6. When I tested this weekend, when I was aiming for 6 I would almost always get 8, but it was harder to get 10. I knew 8 was my goal but wanted to cover myself because there were a few times when I'd hit 6 and that would be it. Didn't want to take a full loss on those. Also needed more wiggle room than 8 on my initial stop loss so increased that by 2.
Had a pretty solid weekend in market replay and good day today so hopefully the streak continues.
Traded live account today. One trade which was a winner. I tried two but my first limit order didn't get filled unfortunately but that would've been a good one as well. I won't be able to trade tomorrow due to an early meeting but will be watching when I can. Going to trade live again on Thursday if my market replay practice sessions go well.
