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Journaling habit

  #11 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6


Ady1979 View Post
Day 3 - No breakout yet ...
Attachment 307451



Day 6- breakout downside , Entry trigger not hit. Setup failed.

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Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
What broker to use for trading palladium futures
Commodities
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
 
  #12 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6

Trade 2
Weekly Setup - 10-30 Ema on crossover
MACD divergence


Daily Setup - 5-20 Ema , 5 Ema above 20
Price touch to 20 Ema
Resuming upside
Expectation
Price resumes upside
CMP INR 137
Max downside risk 130.5
Per pos Risk - 7.5, lots - 50
Total risk - ~ 350. ( risk/trade ,well within limits as % total capital)
Entry IN - 50 @ 137
SL trailing - 130.5

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  #13 (permalink)
 ZviTradingCoach   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 48 since Dec 2020
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You asked for feedback on your system.
I'ts not easy to give deep feedback without a little more work, but a few things jump to mind just off the bat:
1. I completely agree with a previous comment - a mechanical system so simple, can't be so easy.... This system is likely to have times where it performs very well and other times when it performs very poorly. Even if it works on average (and it's an "if"), I imagine it should have periods of serious drawdowns. You should research and backtest these times to know when this system is expected to work.
2. Keep an eye on your numbers - risk/reward and hit ratio: you are betting on the market reversing the trend completely while still in a downtrend, and buying relatively high on the reversal. Just a pop without a complete reversal - you take no profit. Doesn't reverse and resumes downtrend (which may well happen exactly at your buypoint) - you lose.
My gut instinct is that this is a problematic situation when measured quantitatively - may be better off either fading the initial move (buying tighter and exiting more quickly) or waiting for the market to establish ground (i.e. more established proof of reveral) before expecting a major uptrend. Maybe doing both. But again, only gut instinct - this must be verified.
3. Your idea of "scaling out" seems a little unorthodox. You're splitting exits between two different trailing stops (i.e. both exits have the same general idea, and differ only by a bit). I'd try taking half on strength, and the other half on a trailing stop - or any other strategy that uses two fundementally different exit strategies, which each have an advantage in a basically different set of scenarios (in my example - one works well if the market trends, the other if it doesn't).
I wish you success in your trading!

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  #14 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6


ZviTradingCoach View Post
You asked for feedback on your system.

I'ts not easy to give deep feedback without a little more work, but a few things jump to mind just off the bat.

2. Keep an eye on your numbers - risk/reward and hit ratio: you are betting on the market reversing the trend completely while still in a downtrend, and buying relatively high on the reversal. Just a pop without a complete reversal - you take no profit. Doesn't reverse and resumes downtrend (which may well happen exactly at your buypoint) - you lose.

My gut instinct is that this is a problematic situation when measured quantitatively - may be better off either fading the initial move (buying tighter and exiting more quickly) or waiting for the market to establish ground (i.e. more established proof of reveral) before expecting a major uptrend. Maybe doing both. But again, only gut instinct - this must be verified.

!


Was reviewing observations, is it not that system bets at continuation of weekly UPtrend at daily TF swing instead of betting on reversing the trend completely?

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  #15 (permalink)
 ZviTradingCoach   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 48 since Dec 2020
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Ady1979 View Post
Was reviewing observations, is it not that system bets at continuation of weekly UPtrend at daily TF swing instead of betting on reversing the trend completely?

Yes, you are betting on the MAJOR trend continuation. However at your entry point and candidate selection, the INTERMEDIATE (what you call mid-trend) is still very much an intact downtrend. It is also visible on every one of the charts you attached. And intermediate trends don't often reverse "on a dime" without a little repeated testing and accumulation (they can, of course, but they don't often).

Keep in mind that moving averages are just useful indicators (I use them too), but are not the actual thing - which is the prices themselves. The fact that the short-term EMAs have crossed over or a close above the 5EMA does not in itself mean the intermediate trend has reversed.

Again, as it's your system, not one I have researched in depth, it is very possible I am mistaken. But you should check out your entry situations according the system, under different market conditions, and see what the intermediate trend looks like when it triggers an entry on multiple situations, and how it develops.

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  #16 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6


Ady1979 View Post
Trade 2
Weekly Setup - 10-30 Ema on crossover
MACD divergence
Attachment 307681

Daily Setup - 5-20 Ema , 5 Ema above 20
Price touch to 20 Ema
Resuming upside
Expectation
Price resumes upside
CMP INR 137
Max downside risk 130.5
Per pos Risk - 7.5, lots - 50
Total risk - ~ 350. ( risk/trade ,well within limits as % total capital)
Entry IN - 50 @ 137
SL trailing - 130.5
Attachment 307682



First day , New Year ,
Price continues to consolidate around 5 and 20 Ema flat

Maintaining position mark to market - 1.3 /lot.

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  #17 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6


Ady1979 View Post
First day , New Year ,
Price continues to consolidate around 5 and 20 Ema flat

Maintaining position mark to market - 1.3 /lot.
Attachment 307805



8th Jan , some breakout movement finally ..



Current mark to market +2.9/lot

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  #18 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6

New week , more movement ..


Mark to market +3.7/lot

SL Trail- 130 ->134,
Max risk - 150.

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  #19 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6

Follows negative market sentiment ..
SL slides to 135.
Max risk - 2/lot
Current mark to market +1.8/lot

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  #20 (permalink)
Ady1979
Delhi, India
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2020
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 6



Ady1979 View Post
Follows negative market sentiment ..
SL slides to 135.
Max risk - 2/lot
Current mark to market +1.8/lot
Attachment 308206


Swing down resumes after brief push up .
SL hit
Loss - inr 2/lot
Total - inr 100 { 2% of Cap at risk }



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