NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





bwolf's ES Daily Trading Journal


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one bwolf with 190 posts (469 thanks)
    2. looks_two ziggy123 with 4 posts (3 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 blackgrey45 with 2 posts (2 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one snax with 4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two bwolf with 2.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 ES Jedi with 2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 ziggy123 with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 28,259 views
    2. thumb_up 489 thanks given
    3. group 19 followers
    1. forum 204 posts
    2. attach_file 754 attachments




 
Search this Thread

bwolf's ES Daily Trading Journal

  #1 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

I'm working on an automated Bloodhound / Blackbird intraday ES swing strategy which I put together. It's evolving. My daily reporting is on a per combine account basis so as to maintain a consistent perspective on performance. However, I copy trades to multiple accounts.

I also allow 2 statistically driven discretionary setups, 1x daily each maximum when market particulars are aligned for one or the other, or both. One is BtoA (B period to A ledge given BtoA stats) and the other is the Mark Fisher ACD setup with some modifications. Eventually, I want to automate the latter. Occasional alternate discretionary setups are: A to ON, AB to IB, and Gap fill on the open. These are instead of, not in addition to either of the staple setups.

Trading plan and goals: https://shorturl.at/hkEMN

Total P&L (P): +9
Trades: 1
Round Turns:1
Errors: 0
Cost of Errors (P): 0
Risk Plan Adherence: Yes
Opportunities Available: Medium
Event Day: Yes
Preparation: 10
Market Alignment: 9
Execution: 9






Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Trade idea based off three indicators.
Traders Hideout
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
33 thanks
Tao te Trade: way of the WLD
24 thanks
My NQ Trading Journal
14 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
11 thanks
HumbleTraders next chapter
11 thanks
  #2 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

I'm working on an automated Bloodhound / Blackbird intraday ES swing strategy which I put together. It's evolving. My daily reporting is on a per combine account basis so as to maintain a consistent perspective on performance. However, I copy trades to multiple accounts.

I also allow 2 statistically driven discretionary setups, 1x daily each maximum when market particulars are aligned for one or the other, or both. One is BtoA (B period to A ledge given BtoA stats) and the other is the Mark Fisher ACD setup with some modifications. Eventually, I want to automate the latter. Occasional alternate discretionary setups are: A to ON, AB to IB, and Gap fill on the open. These are instead of, not in addition to either of the staple setups.

Trading plan and goals: https://www.shorturl.at/hkEMN

Total P&L (P): +6
Trades: 2
Round Turns:3
Errors: 0
Cost of Errors (P): 0
Risk Plan Adherence: 1/2 - 1/2
Opportunities Available: Medium
Event Day: Yes
Preparation: 8
Market Alignment: 7
Execution: 8







Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564


I'm working on an automated Bloodhound / Blackbird intraday ES swing strategy which I put together. It's evolving. My daily reporting is on a per combine account basis so as to maintain a consistent perspective on performance. However, I copy trades to multiple accounts.

I also allow 2 statistically driven discretionary setups, 1x daily each maximum when market particulars are aligned for one or the other, or both. One is BtoA (B period to A ledge given BtoA stats) and the other is the Mark Fisher ACD setup with some modifications. Eventually, I want to automate the latter. Occasional alternate discretionary setups are: A to ON, AB to IB, and Gap fill on the open. These are instead of, not in addition to either of the staple setups.

Trading plan and goals: https://www.shorturl.at/hkEMN

Today was atypical. I didn't follow my routine or plan and this is what happens. I got the idea to look for a gap fill at the open (1/2 gap actually, with 78% probability of occurrence based on the last 129 sessions) and that got me starting off on the wrong foot. I took a bunch of relatively small losers up and down with 1 lot trades & one 5 lot MES where I scaled in with another 5. All over the place. Eventually just went for a swing to what I perceived to be the lower bound target for the day (posted on Twitter before the open): 3905 and front ran that by 2 pts with a 3907 target, and everyone else front ran it by 3pts at 3908 (as of now, it has not closed yet, 35 min to go). So I rode it back up a bit, then shorted one more lot for 3 total, got rid of my 3907 limit orders, scaled out, and got back to break even on the day. Then up at 3937, I took another short with 1 lot for 7pts.

Total P&L (P): +7
Trades: 9
Round Turns: 20 (10 of which were MES - I count profit in ES points tho)
Errors: 7
Cost of Errors (P): -32
Risk Plan Adherence: No
Opportunities Available: Medium
Event Day: No
Preparation: 5
Market Alignment: 4
Execution: 7
Bloodhound: No signals today



Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

I'm working on an automated Bloodhound / Blackbird intraday ES swing strategy which I put together. It's evolving. My daily reporting is on a per combine account basis so as to maintain a consistent perspective on performance. However, I copy trades to multiple accounts.

I also allow 2 statistically driven discretionary setups, 1x daily each maximum when market particulars are aligned for one or the other, or both. One is BtoA (B period to A ledge given BtoA stats) and the other is the Mark Fisher ACD setup with some modifications. Eventually, I want to automate the latter. Occasional alternate discretionary setups are: A to ON, AB to IB, and Gap fill on the open. These are instead of, not in addition to either of the staple setups.

Trading plan and goals: https://www.shorturl.at/hkEMN

Today I stuck to the plan and levels and biases I posted on Twitter last night and this morning. Per my earlier posts, I was expecting 2-sided trading today and thinking it may get more desperate as the session unfolds (quad witching, etc.), so cutting it all off early. I normally just let BH run all day and stop discretionary by now but not today. Part of my plan includes not trading consolidation after a 2+ sigma trend day, and it looks like this is what it may turn out to be. And if not that's fine.

Total P&L (P): +14
Trades: 4
Round Turns: 12 (10 of which were MES - I count profit in ES points tho)
Errors: 0
Cost of Errors (P): 0
Risk Plan Adherence: Yes
Opportunities Available: Medium
Event Day: No
Preparation: 10
Market Alignment: 10
Execution: 10
Bloodhound: 1 Signal that turned out not to be (it flashed, I took it, but BH revised it as non-signal)










Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

I'm working on an automated Bloodhound / Blackbird intraday ES swing strategy which I put together. It's evolving. My daily reporting is on a per combine account basis so as to maintain a consistent perspective on performance. However, I copy trades to multiple accounts.

I also allow 2 statistically driven discretionary setups, 1x daily each maximum when market particulars are aligned for one or the other, or both. One is BtoA (B period to A ledge given BtoA stats) and the other is the Mark Fisher ACD setup with some modifications. Eventually, I want to automate the latter. Occasional alternate discretionary setups are: A to ON, AB to IB, and Gap fill on the open. These are instead of, not in addition to either of the staple setups.

Trading plan and goals: https://www.shorturl.at/hkEMN

Weekend Review.

Last week looked decent. Below are the week's results and this week it was mostly discretionary trading. The good thing is my profit factor for the week was identical to my sought after long term profit factor. But I have to keep telling myself not to fasten on consecutive positive P&L days, but rather on overall progress. My main strategy, the Bloodhound strategy that undergirds my trading plan, backtests at around 58% win rate even though it has a 2+ profit factor pretty consistently (I have backtested 365 days 3 months running and it seems to be holding up well and in forward testing too. This fluctuates as I seek to improve on the strategy design over time). It averages around 1 trade per day, so that means that I can get losing days 42% of the time and it can still generate $36K per account per year with a ($2,715) max drawdown (average). So by no means do I have to have constantly consecutive positive P&L days as I have had on this daily calendar so far (nor is it even possible). This is critical to remember. There is always a cost to doing business. I have to pay the rent for randomness. Last Thursday is an example of a day where I got a bit headstrong in this respect. My P&L variance was too high.

The idea of adding discretionary trading to my plan is really just to smooth out the automated trading drawdowns, as my discretionary trading actually has a much higher win rate on the whole. But it is also subject to much wider variance in direct proportion to the amount of trading I do, which is the killer. Hence only allowing 1 to 2 total daily with very strict parameters (re-entries on trades excepted and allowed, as in my ACD trades). The challenge is to find the right balance of discretionary input sufficient to balance the bias-variance tradeoff shortcomings but limited in scope so as not to overtake and undermine the automated system's core structure of trade selection, risk, and money management. Two articles I am looking at this morning are:

1. https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2021/03/intuitive-understanding-of-bias-and-variance-trade-off-⚖️/
2. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/581875/will-humans-matter-in-the-wars-of-2030/

Quoting the relevant passage from the second one:

"Humans or Computers? Both.

"Gary Kasparov and the world of chess provide a valuable insight into the human-computer relationship. After decades of humans easily beating computers, Kasparov barely beat IBMs Deep Blue machine in 1996, and a year later, the IBM computer won. The enormous computational power of computers could outmatch the best humans. This is not, however, the end of the story. Fascinated by the power of computers, but still recognizing the strengths of the human brain, Kasparov began to organize what he called Advanced Chess, games where human-computer teams competed against one another. Even as chess computers advanced, humans with relatively simple chess programs dominated chess-specific supercomputers. Perhaps even more interestingly, the winners are not necessarily grandmasters with high-end computers. In early tournaments, the organizers were surprised to find that chess novices who were expert at manipulating the computers beat the grandmasters with their computers.4 Thus, while the type of skills required changed, the human brain still gave a major advantage.

"New approaches to computer algorithms and interface design will continue to enhance the joint performance of humans and computers, so for autonomous computers to reach primacy, their development will have to outpace not only humans, but also the advancing performance of human-computer teams. Taken together, these examples strongly suggest that areas such as operational planning, intelligence analysis, and command will almost certainly stay within the human realm."




Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #6 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Should we expect a Santa Claus Rally?

A look at S&P-500's historical seasonality over the last 72 years, then 25 years, 10, and 5 years.





Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 trendisyourfriend 
Quebec Canada
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 4,527 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 4,175
Thanks Received: 6,020


bwolf View Post
Should we expect a Santa Claus Rally?

A look at S&P-500's historical seasonality over the last 72 years, then 25 years, 10, and 5 years.
...

1) Is it something you have built or does it come from a web site? i like the presentation.
2) I also like your retrospective calendar. What tool did you use to create it ?

Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564


trendisyourfriend View Post
1) Is it something you have built or does it come from a web site? i like the presentation.
2) I also like your retrospective calendar. What tool did you use to create it ?

This is the seasonality tracker: https://app.seasonax.com/

Calendar I found it for $25 for 3yrs on Etsy after typing "trading calendar" in Google search (2003 is the last one, but maybe there is a way to edit it as it's a Google Sheets doc). I changed the settings a bit for it to calculate points vs $P&L. All of the edit functions are open which is good.

(that Argentina penalty just now really hurt) -- oh boy, and another..

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 trendisyourfriend 
Quebec Canada
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 4,527 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 4,175
Thanks Received: 6,020


bwolf View Post
This is the seasonality tracker: https://app.seasonax.com/

Calendar I found it for $25 for 3yrs on Etsy after typing "trading calendar" in Google search (2003 is the last one, but maybe there is a way to edit it as it's a Google Sheets doc). I changed the settings a bit for it to calculate points vs $P&L. All of the edit functions are open which is good.

(that Argentina penalty just now really hurt) -- oh boy, and another..

Listening France Info for the final. really exciting. Thanks for the info.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #10 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564


I'm working on an automated Bloodhound / Blackbird intraday ES swing strategy which I put together. It's evolving. My daily reporting is on a per combine account basis so as to maintain a consistent perspective on performance. However, I copy trades to multiple accounts.

I also allow 2 statistically driven discretionary setups, 1x daily each maximum when market particulars are aligned for one or the other, or both. One is BtoA (B period to A ledge given BtoA stats) and the other is the Mark Fisher ACD setup with some modifications. Eventually, I want to automate the latter. Occasional alternate discretionary setups are: A to ON, AB to IB, and Gap fill on the open. These are instead of, not in addition to either of the staple setups.

Trading plan and goals: https://www.shorturl.at/hkEMN


Total P&L (P): -1.2
Trades: 18
Round Turns: 65 (a lot of 5 lot MES entries)
Errors: Really hard to put a number to this today
Cost of Errors (P): I ended up with smaller loss than had I stopped at my first or second loss, so hard to say.
Risk Plan Adherence: No - I went over my DLL and traded in Rithmic to circumvent my NT8 risk mitigation lockout / time outs
Opportunities Available: Very tough tape. VIX not giving good readings on PA. Not many.
Event Day: No
Preparation: 8
Market Alignment: 6
Execution: 7
Bloodhound: 1 Signal I took manually (-5.25 pts vs backtest on actual BH trade -6.5pts)













Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on March 25, 2024


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts