2023 Rabbit

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blue chips rotate / changing of the guard

for example, stuff like meta and tsla is trying to re-invent to stay current

not sure about the timeframe, but the rapidity of disruption may decrease these periods

that said, general funds / indexes take the view of buying in bulk items in similar sectors

mid-cycle, moderate is okay but eventually rotation / adaptation

not really value picking but observing a general trend and the general anticipation is floating sentiment

so small cap health would be one measure or canary in the coalmine

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also yield inversion needs context

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also open interest in spx mar 4 / 3.95 / 3.9

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bounced hard off support and now testing next area, decent levels

inflation on average ~1%, currently around 4%, down from >5% rate

(chart reads from right to left, semi-annual adjusted based on series I)

policy may be leaning instead toward deflationary tendencies / overshoot

if agenda linked to inflation, otherwise there is a different goal altogether

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in the context of positioning, this would be the secondary, bit safer and may be used to add to a position

the earlier attempts would meet some drawdown with the advantage of better positioning, but still ideal for a longer term view

there is also a later development which would cement the move and shutter the gates for a swing / hold type strategy

overall, the level established is hovering based on pending data

again, there are signs that wage based inflationary measures have subsided slightly

the hawkish comments are based on the view that these lagging indicators may not yet be out of the woods

that lag is where the optimism and expectations reside and any risk on events would turn on such data points

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zooming out, this area of confluence is solid, and well balanced independent of the viewpoint

will be after the fact, but likely kneejerk reactions / late tests of the previous positioning strength

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some open interest above in some of the indexes, though revisiting POC is possible prior

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perhaps with incomplete dev revisit of week/month open area on event release

longer frame does not alter much until possibly after, likely to test resolve of those early

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the expected pull back arrived, tipping the balance, in non-directional anticipation of more data

actually a good area

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decent spot for action, small kink in an otherwise taught rope, let's see if it frays

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nearing a level of support that is solid, but not impenetrable

re-tests will tell more, vix and dollar still trending as well

moving away from financial sector exposure may be enough

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a bit of glut/excess though temporary makes this a good area

yields for shorter term lower as they are bought up

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excess ongoing, have some accumulation EOD

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on the few prop firms available out there, seek low leverage, reasonable rule sets

oneup and topstep fall into these categories and offer decent support

1up does not charge fees and is built into the commission round trip

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the best deal was with TOPSTEP when they had the swing account

there is a diamond hands account via elite and swing via leeloo

no trail, fixed draw, etc. low leverage..

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those crazy super high contract accounts are made for blow outs

UNLESS you PHYSICALLY set a contract limit yourself

that said, most won't. and there is said hamster wheel..

they are fun, but can be had with simple trial accounts through tradeovate, etc.

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overall, better than losing stacks shorting multiple crude contracts mid-summer when WTI was about to break 110.. just a really specific example

spent much less than that and have learned enormous amounts, dealing with the psychology of losses and blow ups as well..

there is luck involved, but may you be VERY unlucky so that you learn the most..

sometimes when you win big, you think the strategy was great, but actually just plain luck

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if you are like me, like raw hp.. it is very hard to not floor it when there is so much power on tap

but you lose traction, then get it back to send you into a wall/ditch

much better to have a controlled environment, go fast and keep things steady AND still have a ride home

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vix attempting to subside, resolving regional bank sentiment

support was tested as entry and also contract rollover ongoing

wavering until further conviction as well as other data like cpi

the coiling does favor the area prior to svb event if all is repaired

would be reversion with asterisk on rate pause, etc.

all the shifting and reallocation will probably not be immediate

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still residual fear left to drain on top of the decay from rate issues and inflation

though somewhat supportive and not complete panic, a sort of tense balance

scalp or blip trading to capture small impulses to avoid leverage hold risk

longer term swings can normalize but should still wait for resolution / conviction

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return to area prior to svb dip event, post-cpi context and vix has subsided

prep toward next rate fomc event as balanced shifted early with cpi

opportunity missed for 0dte crowd intraday than overnighters / holders

so re-bal vpoc or vwap or what have you, to provide more positioning

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area of breakthrough was previous resistance and possibly current support

energy still lags, cross-currents in play, re-visiting areas outside normal hours

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sort of a rewind, support became resistance

vix / energy refreshing for rewind on sentiment

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resistance broke after the pullback, there was initial rejection, but then resistance became support

all pretty quickly toward the close, initially, there was no ideal positioning during the open post cpi

the pullback / vix retest seems to be rejected intraday, dips under vwap, under vpoc may work

possible continuation however.. tbd

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high volume on the last hour push (buyside imbalance toward close and large block trades in billions) may generate fomo

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weds, we are in area prior to last hour ramp and possibly re-testing lows, considered resolution of initiating impulse

vix has reset and energy is pushing lower, action may be filling areas as well

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gentle movement for the pullback enough to pause but maybe not run dtes

bringing up the low end for a higher low possibly but inflection is temp resistance

slightly trending rangish with less volume, also waiting for vix

the pre-cpi lows may need to be revisited, and see if policy reverse course with -m2 supply

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like yesterday the levels were a suggestion but could still be breached

again today, there was action that breached an area to touch vpoc

those above levels seem to be a temp cap while vix continues further

one alarming thing is that energy keeps dropping, to paint pictures pre-fomc

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energy could be considered a proxy for inflation but also industry health

double-edge swords here, to try and tweak inflation toward good and not bad

maybe the svb and cs issues are to stem bubbles and maintain fiat stability

for the ongoing vol, corresponding index moves are not following yet

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once vpoc was revisited to challenge resistance, the previous levels held

vix subsided, the prep was just waiting, and level broke through and became support

afternoon rallies seem to be more vix based, another hint was the hovering near level prior

this type of action is like a bootstrap or pull-up, the higher highs also ratchet in higher lows

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those overnight areas seem to be acting like kickers, previously sold now bought

also, oneup funded has a 90-day probationary where the trader must be net profitable

and the trade volume must match the previous evaluation average at minimum

oneup did remove the daily drawdown but the larger trailing draw remains

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cups within cups within cups seems to be happening regardless of events

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considered the initiating leg, vix closed higher but may be a retest

one thing learned is to take the normal open and close

things keep pushing and breaking levels after visit vwap

one thing is that HH/HL keeps notching favorable for next leg

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though m2 is negative, is the financial system more resilient?

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continuation of pull up attempt, energy slips further

though negative from close these last couple days, the close was ramped

a pullback would be welcome but there are still targets above

vix is still resolving and maybe things are deflating toward next fomc

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some bond info and data points but otherwise toward that event in view of nfp

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vix is now resolved but price is above vwap, target still not hit however

possibly wait for pullback but swing positions are still ok

the pullup has ratcheted higher securing the week's open

also looking for eventual longer term dip area to move as HL

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since '22 consider the events leading toward yield increase the formation of a rounded bowl

also, when you go do other stuff and then see the measured move heh

why you gotta close early wen moon :: stare ::

for swings, no patience needed to set and forget until regret

target hit a few days prior to fomc and prior to fri exp

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at close rotate to lagging sectors to decrease the vol during minor reversions

however, most, even large caps have pumped, small caps even more

so less vol with YT during the small pullback phase if hodling vs. say NQ

in a trend, the minors should happen quickly with smaller magnitude if possible

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ok if you control rates, then timing a favorable bond dip should be useful for a recharge

liquidity injects from those bonds bought to help reverse m2

so raise rates to curb some pockets of unwanted / unhelpful inflation

they can still stay at higher levels while m2 heals

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a semi-floor established for the interim

now term structure steepens, prevent longer term rates from dropping

less bubbly implications for housing

banks now have resources to give out high yield long term

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at the same time, they can help buy shorter term debt

help out companies and increase high quality liquidity

which is better than a direct stimulus measure

so buy Xs sell XXs, etc.

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here's to hoping these modern metrics and responsiveness prevent a repeat of history

whether or not these economic indicators lag

the overall extrema and developments makes the strategy okay

well defined risk, not so exposed to tail events

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so there you have it, the best traders in the room are also the watchmen

moral hazard aside, the punishment is far worse for wrongdoing

which would be to literally shut down operations altogether

thus economic theory attempts to do the least harm and most good

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hitting countercurrent areas, trends and counters so choppy but re-tests must happen

vix range has been wide, energy low, vwaps might change but vpoc still needs to shift

bit of repair areas, but levitation can still happen, and a smaller range can contain further

such levitation would need enough magnitude to notch and pull up for a better HL

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also waiting for regional banks to properly recover via KRE

forgot to mention also that a bank run also increases m0/1

regionals lose deposits, replaced by injection, and those goto larger banks or stay in the system

+m0/1 increase, maybe an increase >m1 shifting regional-> larger funds

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interesting that tech is under, normally leading now lagging, commodities as well

rotation into large caps with less exposure to regional bank issues possibly

late stage movement in the initiating phase mostly vwap hovering

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should pickup the west coast crowd for another leg and with both a runner

move still does not hit overall target, possibly continuation toward fomc

event will have to be digested before generating greater conviction

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currently trying to test resistance, the result is possible formation of new vpoc

another way of observing resistance become support and more grinding

cup formations within cups interspersed with HL/HH type

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compression still ongoing, volume tapering which may change reaction post news

again, tech lagging mostly from microsoft, which is offset in dow with health/financials

looks more technical to recharge and non-issue, though their ai is definitely emo

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another target hit, spx quarterly open interest stacked, resting maybe retesting

holding area but event is likely reducing exposure, so just small scalps

tight range near vwap, gap to fill under, take some ticks and then take pause

2023 Rabbit

Discussion in Trading Journals

2023 Rabbit