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Incentive Buyers took the lead at the opening and pushed prices up from 139.09 to 139.46 in the first hour, creating a buying tail from 139.09 to 139.30. From 139.46 reactive Sellers appeared and prices retreated to 139.30. Buyers then came back and pushed prices upward to HoD (139.62) which was reached during the night session.
Result is a big green loop belt candle with more volume than the two previous days.
At 139.41, POC is much higher than the days before.
On the 4H graph with ICHIMOKU, it is to be notived that Shikou Span is just below the candle line and prices are entering into the cloud. If market fails to continue the upward move, I will expect a downard day tomorrow.
HoD (139.62) is a first resistance, then MM 20D (139.93) with R3 (139.97) not far. Above there is Kijun Sen (140.25) and finally SSB (140.46)
On the support side, I do see the upper end of the buying tail (139.32) as a first support, then LoD (139.09). below there is 139.84, a former LoD and finally the double bottom at 139.68.
Market opened rougly where it closed yesterday and tested whether lower prices would attract sellers. Reactive Buyers entered into the market at 139.50, which was LoD, and pushed the market up to a first high at 139.72. Market then traded sideways and after the US data release at 2.30 pm, 139.85 was paid. It was to become the HoD. During the night session, such price was paid again and market ended a shade lower.
At 139.78, POC is much higher than the day before. Buyers are still in control of the market.
As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is a green candle with two small spikes. Trend is still upward but losing momentum. MA 20D did a good job as resistance.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that Shikou Span is above the candle line and prices are above the cloud.
Market is technically bull on this TU.
HoD (139.85) is a first resistance then Kijun Sen at 140.14 and above SSB at 140.47
Do not forget also R3 at 139.98 and the annual PP at 140.20.
On the support side, there is SSB 4H at 139.64, then below LoD at 139.50, 139.43, 139.35, 139.09, 138.93 and finally the double bottom at 138.68.
Many data released tomorrow and last but not least, the FOMC minutes at 8 pm.
At the opening, incentive Sellers took the lead, pushed prices down and made a low at 139.58. After making a double bottom, reactive Buyers entered into the market and pushed prices upward. HoD (139.92) was made about one hour before the release of ADP figure. After the figure was released, reactive Sellers entered into the market and pushed prices down until the end of the session. LoD (139.43) was made during the night session which ended a shade higher than LoD.
At 139.67, POC is lower than yesterday and there is no HVN.
On the 1 day graph, candle of the day is almost a bearish engulfing of the previous one and volume is bigger than the one of last days. MA 20D did again a good job as resistance.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that Kijun Sen stopped the fall. MA 44 (not visible on this graph) is at 139.40 and will be in support as well.
139.40/43 is a first support, below there is 139.35, 139.09, 138.83 and finally the double bottom at 138.68.
On the resistance side, above 139.92 (HoD) there is Kijun Sen (1 day) at 140.05 then SSB at 140.54.
Plenty of volatility expected tomorrow with ECB and Mario's speach.
I will give a downard biais to my trading as long as prices are below MA 20D.
Market opened rougly where it closed yesterday and traded sideways untill eleven when incentive Sellers pushed the marked down to what would become LoD (139.25) where reactive buyers sent market back to opening level.
Upon BCE press conference, incentive buyers pushed market up to what would become HoD (139.83) where reactive sellers entered into the market and sent prices down. Market ended a shade higher than the opening level.
At 139.54 POC is lower than the two previous days. Volume is concentrated in the 139.42-60 area, with a buying and a selling tail on each side.
Result is almost a doji with long legs, which very well could be a structure of continuation of the downard trend that could have begun yesterday.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see the two long spikes. Kijun Sen did a good job as support.
On the 4H graph, it is obvious that MA 44 was also on support. Bollinger bands are getting closer : a big move may be on preparation.
On this 30' graph, I drafted a symetric enlargement with 6 rotation points and what could very well be a partial rotation (today's HoD).
As long as prices do remain below such level, I am expecting the market to go back to the supporting oblique and to break it with a target in the 139.05/15 range. Such target is obtained by two different methods, one is already presented above, the other being calclulated from Wednesday candle and today's as a continuation structure.
Above HoD (139.83) resistances are 139.92, 140.04/14/22, 140.47 and 140.54.
On the support side, below LoD (139.25) we do have 139.09, 138.93 and the double bottom at 138.68.
Tomorrow, the US employment data shall bring some volatility and give the trend.
Market opened rouglhy where it closed Thursday and incentive Buyers took the lead and sent the market upward to Thursday's HoD (139.83), waiting for the US employment figures. Upon their release, market rocketed to 140..25 and ended at 140.37, making a 7th rotation point on the symetric boardening structure visible in TH 30' and exiting the structure by above.
At 139.74, POC is higher than the day before but lower than Tuesday. There are two HVN, one around POC and the other, bigger and wider, in the 140.04 - 140.28 area with a valley in between and almost no volume traded in the 139.83 - 93 area.
Result is a big green loop belt candle. Kijun Sen is on support now together with MA 20D but prices are still below SSB and Shikou Span is still below the candle line.
Upper BB and MA 50D (140.73) are likely to be reached within the week to come.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that the 139.80-93 area is a support and that market is in a bullish mode in this TU.
Candle of the week is a big green loop belt. Weekly SSB (140.64) is above prices but the cloud is very thin, offering almost no resistance to an eventual upward move in January. Shikou Span is likely to stay below the candle line next week. Upper BB is at 142.30 and is the target of the upward move which begun with the double bottom at 138.66
Weekly PP is at 139.95. Prices are closing above which gives R1 (140.66) as a logical target for early next week and 139.95 as a support level. Keep in mind that yearly PP is at 140.22 and that we could very well range around such level before the market takes eventually a direction for the first quarter of 2014.
As already written above 139.93 is a support ( upper range of the almost non traded volume yesterday + TU 4H Tenkan Sen level + weekly PP. Below there is Friday LoD (139.58). R1 (140.63) is a resistance and a target at the same time. Above there is 140.73 (MA 50D) and then 141.40, a former HoW.
As long as prices are above weekly PP and below R1, I will have a bullish biais in my trading.
Market opened rouglhy where it closed and explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers. LoD (140.19) was reached at 9am and from then, market was pushed by incentive Buyers all day long to end at 140.89, a shade below HoD (140.91).
At 140.59, POC is considerably higher than yesterday and value is concentrated below 140.68, which gives the day a "d" shape.
Result is another green loop belt candle, a bit shorter than the previous one and also with less volume.
Upper BB is reached and prices ended above the cloud.
On the 4H graph with ICHIMOKU, we can see that Tenkan sen is at 140.56 and could be a first support in the case of a 23.6 retracement of the rise since 139.25 while Kijun Sen at 140.09 is 50% retracement of such rise.
HoD could be a first resistance, while R2 at 141.08 is a resistance and a target at the same time.
On the support side, 140.56/65 is a first support and below LoD at 140.19.
After the last two trading days upward move, I would expect some retracement but candles and graph only show the way up.
Market opened with a small downard gap and almost immediately incentive Sellers pushed the market down to 140.62. Market then was traded within a 140.62 - 140.82 range. During the night session, lack of buyers made market to close at 140.50.
At 141.71, POC is a shade higher than yesterday and there is almost no volume traded below 140.62.
Result is a red candle inside the previous one, forming an harami. Upward move is stopped but there is not yet an indication that a reverse trend begun.
Shikou Span did not try to go above the candle line. MA 50D ends above prices. SSB is below prices.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, I traced the retracement levels. Market retraced 23.6% of the rise since 139.42.
Tenkan Sen is above prices but Shikou Span is far above the candle line and Kijun Sen is on support.
The upward trend is not on jeopardy on this TU.
On the 4H graph, MA 23 and 44 are rising and in support. 140.54 is a former pivot point (alternatively resistance and support).
LoD (140.50) is a first support, below there is 140.19, 139.91 and MA 44 at 139.79.
On the reistance side we have HoD (140.83) and above 140.92 then R2 at 141.08.
Market opened roughy where it closed then Buyers shily pushed the market up. HoD (140.80), a shade below yersterday's HoD, was reached prior to the release of US data. After such relase, reactive Sellers dropped the marked down to its LoD (140.38) where reactive Buyers sent the market back to opening levels.
At 140.58, POC is a shade lower than yesterday and at the same level than Monday. There are no HVN's.
Result is almost a doji which forms an harami with the previous candle, itself an harami of the previous one.
Shikou Span is knoking on the candle line but is still below. MA 50D is above closing price.
4H graphs do not bring something new from yesterday.
On 1H graph, we can see that prices are in a low slope decreasing channel that could very well be a flag.
Going above todays HoD but more important Monday's HoD would mean that the upward trend will resume.
Alternatively, going below today's LoD would mean going below SSB and looking for next support, 140.20, which is also 50% retracement of the rise from 149.42 to 140.89.
Above HoD (140.80) next resistance is Monday's HoD (140.91) then R2 at 140.07 and 141.13/28.
On the support side, below LoD (140.38) there is Kijun Sen (140.20) 139.92 139.74 and 139.24
Plenty of US statistics tomorrow, to resume the upward trend or to retrace more.
Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and almost immediately incentive Buyers tested Wednesday HoD where they met some reactive Sellers who sent the market back to a shade above the opening level.
As such level was holding, incentive Buyers came back but did not met any resistance this time and market rocketed to new highs on a one way market to the sky. Trading session ended a shade below HoD (141.23).
It is worth noting that most of such upward move happened before the US data were released.
At 141.17, POC is considerably higher than yesterday and there are two HVN, one centered on 140.72 and the other one, bigger, in the 140.95-141.15 area with a valley in between.
Result is a big green loop belt candle with a good volume. Top of the candle is in contact with upper BB.
MA 50 is now below prices and Shikou Span is on the verge of getting above the candle line. Tomorrow it is very likely that the market will be bullish on this TU.
On this 4H ICHIMOKU graph, Tenkan sen is at 140.85 while Kijun Sen is at 140.70, giving two possible levels of support in the case of a retracement tomorrow.
On the 4H graph, I traced a rising channel which support is MA 23. As long as prices do remain in such channel, the upward trand is not in jeopardy.
141.23 (HoD) is a first resistance then 141.53, a former HoW and further above 141.77, another former HoW.
On the support side, the 140.83-95 area is a first one (Tenkan Sen + higher HVN lower range + former resistance and HoD) then Kijun Sen (140.70) and finally MA 23 at 140.64, which is also rising channel support oblique.
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Tomorrow, I woud not be surprised to see some retracement : 23.6 = 141.09, 38.2 = 140.98, 140.91 = 50.
But market could also continue to rise and explore whether higher prices will still attract Buyers.
Market opened roughly where it closed Thursday and briefly explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers, making its LoD (141.16). From there incentive Buyers took the lead and the market, with some setbacks, rose to its HoD (141.55) which was reached during the night session.
At 141.31, POC is higher than Thursday and there is an HVN a shade below POC.
Result is a big green candle in loop belt, the second one, however a bit shorter than the first one and with an associated volume lower. Shikou Span achieved to go over the candle line : the market is bullish on this TU.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are giving two potential support levels in the case a retracement happens tomorrow.
On the 4H graph, I traced a rising channel which support oblique merges with MA 23.
On the 1 week chart, we can see that we have now two candles in loop belt, that Shikou Span is just below the candle line, knocking at the door and that prices are now above the ICHIMOKU cloud. Target is upper bollinger band (142.47) which is less than 100 ticks from Friday's closing.
On this chart, with a bit of imagination, I can see a reverse Head & Shoulders, with the first shoulder at 137.82 (June 2013), the head at 136.31 (September 2013) and the second shoulder at the turn of the year, with the double bottom at 138.68. Volumes are in line with such view (bigger on the first shoulder than on the head, and bigger on the head than on the second shoulder). Neck line is in the 142.20 level (mid yearly PP) while tarket is an hefty 148.....but yearly R1 (144.13) would be already a nice northen ride.
Obviously, if the neck line resists, the drop will be dramatic but we are not yet there.
Weekly PP is at 141.03. Prices ended higher. R1 is at 141.91 while R2 is at 142.35.
Last week, the market went over yearly PP (140.23), next target is mid PP (142.20)
Above HoD (141.55) which is also HoW, R1 (141.91) is at the same time next resistance and first target. However, in November 2013, four weekly candles had their top in a 141.76-96 range and I am expecting that such area will not be went through in one go. Above there is 142.21, 4Q 2013 top and R2 at 142.35
On the support side, Friday's LoD (141.16) is a first support then weekly PP at 141.03 and below MA 23 4H, at 140.88, the support oblique of the rising channel visible in TU 4H. Such level is also SSB and shall be a strong support would the market drop there.
As long as prices are above Fridayy's LoD, I shall give a bullish biais to my ID trading, unless if opening level does not hold.
