Prediction Markets & Event Contracts

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Discuss prediction markets, event contracts, and outcome-based trading. Covers CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, CME Event Contracts, and Polymarket - from economic and political events to sports outcomes, weather, and crypto.

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After $87M Settles NO: Iran's Nuclear Redline Sets Up the June Trade, CME Bitcoin Vol Debuts, W	0	61	June 1st, 2026 07:05 AM
60-Day Hormuz Extension Stalls: Trump Demands Uranium Surrender, Iran Refuses -- Odds Crash 60% to 33% [Updated May 31]	4	155	May 31st, 2026 07:11 AM
'More Than Capable': Hegseth's War Warning Validates $114M in Expiring No-Peace Bets -- World C	0	54	May 31st, 2026 07:04 AM
Prediction Markets Pivot: Sports Now 85% of Kalshi Volume as World Cup 2026 Markets Awaken -- B	1	1,043	May 31st, 2026 04:08 AM
Penalties in Budapest, Peace Deadline in Tehran: Arsenal Surges to 52.5% as $80M Iran Contract	0	71	May 30th, 2026 03:12 PM
UCL Final Kicks Off at Noon ET: PSG at 56.5% as Iran May 31 Cluster Prices Mass Failure -- Both	0	55	May 30th, 2026 07:05 AM
Hantavirus Reaches Switzerland: Pandemic at 8%, Iran Peace Collapses to 13%	1	138	May 30th, 2026 04:08 AM
Trump Truth Social Fires Hormuz From 10% to 59% -- Arsenal CL Final Tomorrow, Fonseca-Djokovic	0	71	May 29th, 2026 03:06 PM
Extension Draft Awaits Trump's Signature as $212M in Iran Contracts Expire Sunday -- CME Crypto	1	50	May 29th, 2026 07:13 AM
Fabrication or Framework? Iran's Denied MOU Explains the Nuclear-Peace Spread -- Venezuela's $2	0	54	May 28th, 2026 03:14 PM
GDP Day: The First Economic Reckoning -- Pahlavi at 6.55%, Hormuz at 0.45%, and What $133M in C	0	54	May 28th, 2026 07:19 AM
Beyond May 31: Trump's 'No Sanctions' Kills the Deadline Trade -- Hormuz July at 38%, Reza Pahl	2	94	May 27th, 2026 04:33 PM
Peace Deal Forward Curve: May 22%, June 51%, December 81% -- The Term Structure the Headlines M	0	65	May 27th, 2026 07:12 AM
$12M Ceasefire Contract Goes 'Disputed' as Bandar Abbas Strikes Hit Iranian Ground -- May 28 Se	0	74	May 26th, 2026 03:10 PM
May 26 Deadline Dies at 7.5% as US Strikes Iran During Ceasefire -- The May 31 Cluster and CME'	0	53	May 26th, 2026 07:16 AM
Iran's Dual Probability: Guns Quiet at 99.95% While Formal Agreement Sits at 9.5% -- FIFA Marke	0	60	May 25th, 2026 03:11 PM
Memorandum Watch: How the 60-Day MOU Framework Makes May Deadlines Obsolete -- Bitcoin's $150k	0	60	May 25th, 2026 07:10 AM
Trump Says Deal 'Largely Negotiated' -- 30% Peace Odds Hide a Critical Market Misread	1	77	May 25th, 2026 07:08 AM
Rubio's 'Good News Within Hours' and the 30-Day Math: Why Hormuz Trades 3.45% While Headlines S	0	84	May 24th, 2026 03:14 PM
'I Have a Thing Called Iran' -- Trump Stays in DC as Airspace Binary Hits 35% Final Hours, Peac	0	65	May 23rd, 2026 07:07 AM

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Prediction Markets & Event Contracts

Discuss prediction markets, event contracts, and outcome-based trading. Covers CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, CME Event Contracts, and Polymarket - from economic and political events to sports outcomes, weather, and crypto.