Prediction Markets & Event Contracts

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Discuss prediction markets, event contracts, and outcome-based trading. Covers CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, CME Event Contracts, and Polymarket - from economic and political events to sports outcomes, weather, and crypto.

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Trump Truth Social Fires Hormuz From 10% to 59% -- Arsenal CL Final Tomorrow, Fonseca-Djokovic	0	228	May 29th, 2026 03:06 PM
Extension Draft Awaits Trump's Signature as $212M in Iran Contracts Expire Sunday -- CME Crypto	1	155	May 29th, 2026 07:13 AM
Fabrication or Framework? Iran's Denied MOU Explains the Nuclear-Peace Spread -- Venezuela's $2	0	182	May 28th, 2026 03:14 PM
GDP Day: The First Economic Reckoning -- Pahlavi at 6.55%, Hormuz at 0.45%, and What $133M in C	0	167	May 28th, 2026 07:19 AM
Beyond May 31: Trump's 'No Sanctions' Kills the Deadline Trade -- Hormuz July at 38%, Reza Pahl	2	309	May 27th, 2026 04:33 PM
Peace Deal Forward Curve: May 22%, June 51%, December 81% -- The Term Structure the Headlines M	0	164	May 27th, 2026 07:12 AM
$12M Ceasefire Contract Goes 'Disputed' as Bandar Abbas Strikes Hit Iranian Ground -- May 28 Se	0	191	May 26th, 2026 03:10 PM
May 26 Deadline Dies at 7.5% as US Strikes Iran During Ceasefire -- The May 31 Cluster and CME'	0	162	May 26th, 2026 07:16 AM
Iran's Dual Probability: Guns Quiet at 99.95% While Formal Agreement Sits at 9.5% -- FIFA Marke	0	155	May 25th, 2026 03:11 PM
Memorandum Watch: How the 60-Day MOU Framework Makes May Deadlines Obsolete -- Bitcoin's $150k	0	151	May 25th, 2026 07:10 AM
Trump Says Deal 'Largely Negotiated' -- 30% Peace Odds Hide a Critical Market Misread	1	185	May 25th, 2026 07:08 AM
Rubio's 'Good News Within Hours' and the 30-Day Math: Why Hormuz Trades 3.45% While Headlines S	0	179	May 24th, 2026 03:14 PM
'I Have a Thing Called Iran' -- Trump Stays in DC as Airspace Binary Hits 35% Final Hours, Peac	0	185	May 23rd, 2026 07:07 AM
Al Arabiya: US-Iran Draft Deal 'Within Hours' Contains Hormuz Guarantee -- So Why Is Peace Stil	0	206	May 22nd, 2026 03:05 PM
Pakistan Mediator in Tehran as Hormuz Normalization Collapses to 5% -- The Uranium/Toll Deadloc	0	177	May 22nd, 2026 07:06 AM
Khamenei Vetoes Uranium Transfer as Peace Odds Surge to 19% -- The $33M Analytical Gap Traders	0	193	May 21st, 2026 03:07 PM
Wood Mackenzie Drops $200 Oil Forecast -- Airspace Expires NO, Iran Binary Reprices Sharply Wit	0	190	May 21st, 2026 07:18 AM
Iran Airspace Final 24 Hours at 4.5% -- World Cup Dark Horse Markets Hit $14M Daily Volume	6	441	May 20th, 2026 04:28 PM
Kalshi's $700M Saturday and the Coming Perps Revolution -- What Perpetual Futures Mean for Pred	1	314	May 19th, 2026 04:09 AM
Trump Warns Iran "Clock Is Ticking" -- Peace Odds Fall to 8.5% With 13 Days to May 31	2	277	May 19th, 2026 12:24 AM

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Prediction Markets & Event Contracts

Discuss prediction markets, event contracts, and outcome-based trading. Covers CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, CME Event Contracts, and Polymarket - from economic and political events to sports outcomes, weather, and crypto.