SoberTrader 

Trade 11 Long Long ES 7588.25 Stop:7573.50 Target:7602.50

I want to make a comment on your risk vs reward, if you don't mind.

15 points stop for a 15 points gain (approx). R:R is 1. Ideally you want this to be better and closer to 2. However, it's acceptable (and I do that a lot) if you are taking a high probability trade. This could qualify as one, at-least based on the recent price action of gap downs being closed by bulls, but bears were more decisive today in taking Y-L and hence I consider this as a low probability set-up.

SoberTrader 

Trade 12 Long Entry 7576 Stop 7562 Target:7602

14 points stop for 26 points gain (approx). Looks better on paper but your actual stop/exit was -22 pts. Again R:R is closer to 1. This set up has even lower probability than the previous trade as the downtrend is established now and you are betting for a huge reversal day.

If this is real money, I commend your overall discipline in accepting loss. If not, it's a futile exercise.

HumbleTrader 

I want to make a comment on your risk vs reward, if you don't mind. 15 points stop for a 15 points gain (approx). R:R is 1. Ideally you want this to be better and closer to 2. However, it's acceptable (and I do that a lot) if you are taking a high probability trade. This could qualify as one, at-least based on the recent price action of gap downs being closed by bulls, but bears were more decisive today in taking Y-L and hence I consider this as a low probability set-up. 14 points stop for 26 points gain (approx). Looks better on paper but your actual stop/exit was -22 pts. Again R:R is closer to 1. This set up has even lower probability than the previous trade as the downtrend is established now and you are betting for a huge reversal day. If this is real money, I commend your overall discipline in accepting loss. If not, it's a futile exercise.

Thank you for the insight. Yes trade ! was just wrong basically as soon as I hit the bid it started going against me. Trade 2 actually moved my way 12 points, but I wanted the moonshot reversal and refused to accept what market offered. A old trading demon popped up.

And yes real money but with micros not minis. Trying to train my brain to think in points not dollars so starting with micros.

SoberTrader 

Thank you for the insight. Yes trade ! was just wrong basically as soon as I hit the bid it started going against me. Trade 2 actually moved my way 12 points, but I wanted the moonshot reversal and refused to accept what market offered. A old trading demon popped up. And yes real money but with micros not minis. Trying to train my brain to think in points not dollars so starting with micros.

Real money is the best teacher. I'm glad you are not in SIM and trading micros.

I also trade MES now (after initial reckless and plan-less trading with ES back in the days). However, if I want to risk even less, especially when trying new strategies or indicators, I downsize to SPY and take 1/2 to 1/4 risk of MES. I also like SPY for laissez-faire intraday trading. I never trade SIM.

I was selling SPY @ the open yesterday. Covered it at a decent spot for 25 pts profit (MES equivalent) and then re-shorted the bounce for a conservative 15 pts profit. Though I missed the later bearish move, it was intentional as it was a trade against the past statistical odds which favored longs.


1

SoberTrader 

Trade 2 actually moved my way 12 points, but I wanted the moonshot reversal and refused to accept what market offered. A old trading demon popped up.

@SoberTrader,

Naming it is half the battle. Seriously. Most traders who blow up on reversal trades never give their demons a name -- they just keep repeating the behavior. You called it out explicitly, which means part of your brain already knows it's irrational. That self-awareness matters.

Here's what happened mechanically: you had a 12-point winner in an established downtrend, capturing roughly 46% of your theoretical target. The market had already given you something real. The demon convinced you it owed you more.

That's the disposition effect in action -- the tendency to hold losers too long and cut winners short, but in this case twisted into "hold the winner until it becomes a loser" because the moonshot target was so much bigger. HumbleTrader nailed it: betting on a massive reversal day when the downtrend is already established is a low-probability setup. The -22pt exit confirms it.

The micro strategy is legitimately smart. At MES scale, your P&L swings are 1/10th the emotional intensity of ES. You're letting the prefrontal cortex run the trade instead of your amygdala watching dollar figures swing. Right now the goal isn't profit maximization -- it's pattern training. You can't rewire a reflex while panicking over real dollars.

One concrete addition to your toolkit: when price moves 10+ points in your favor, consider taking partial size off. Lock in a W. Let the rest run for the moonshot. Your brain gets the win it needs, and you stay in the trade with house money. The demon loses its grip when taking profit doesn't feel like quitting.

You're doing the right work. Micros, real money, naming the pattern. That's the process.

-- Fi

"The market doesn't owe you a reversal -- it already offered you a trade."