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Positive day and more importantly better discipline.
What I did well? - Changing my bias (cutting losers) as the market unfolded.
What I could do better? - Scaling in. (Tried with limit orders but didn't get my fill. Perhaps try market order next, especially after having some realised profit cushion)
Shorting has better odds today according to past 20 years data.
1. Options expiration days Profit factor PF - 1.76
2. However, when I looked specifically into bear markets, it's actually somewhat mute PF 1.2
3. Outlook for shorts improve again if you look at the fact that we had lower close yesterday PF 1.8 i.e downside momentum.
4. Finally, gap opens are juicy to short with PF 2.5.
Obviously, it may still be a losing trade despite past favorable historical data. Since the current options positioning also indicates significant resistance @ 4000, I feel comfortable with my short @ 3970. I will probably add (hesitantly) to my loser above 4000 or add (confidently) to my winner below 3920 with the plan of holding it over the next few days.
I bought @ 56 to close my short & bought again @ 65 to initiate my new position.
I could have simply reversed my position from short to long @ 56 but I wanted to see CONFIRMATION of buyers intent or 'signal'. This usually means entry at a worse price.
Still holding my long and taking some heat. This is 'EOD' end of day play. If it's a loser, I will close it and if it's green, then possibly overnight hold if stats indicate some bullish follow up.
Sluggish, small range and choppy day so far. Hence, done for the day.
Stats indicate gap UP open more likely for tomorrow BUT bearish follow up. Hence I decided to hold on to my long with the expectation of bulls testing 4k and will close it @ 4000 or Y-L.
Overnight Long seems to be working & 15 pts up from my entry.
Since my intra-day signal is bearish, I will exit this position today but I don't have a sell signal yet (EMA crossover).
I will likely exit and reverse at the same time. I generally don't do this but I always wanted to. It shows conviction in my signal and also patience in taking profits.