Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
the claim - the newer strain is more virulent, aggressive and more symptomatic but also more likely to be quarantined
the original strain, being weaker and less harmful under the current controls is more likely to pass under the radar, but there is less overall harm done
so the caveat hinges on the effectiveness of the quarantine to mitigate the spread of the more lethal strain
the spike protein is the same, so vaccine dev would still rely on a constant antigen
if one could reverse virulence further but still maintain a decent rate of infection, an active, but non-lethal strain would aid in developing an immune response against any COVID in this class with varying degrees of lethality
the risk would be in producing a novel, lethal strain with a mutated spike protein
the twisted view would be, that under the radar, from a bio-weapons perspective, one would first introduce the non-lethal version to protected population(s) and with delay, then release the lethal version to target population(s)
the question here is.. what is the true COVID mutation rate, the smoking gun.. testing for presence of COVID antibodies in the unexposed..
something that discounts this is a patient who was infected with both strains..
last link, spike protein also a source of virulence, but mutations limited so antibodies can still work against
Although we found only 4% variability in genomic nucleotides between SARS-CoV-2 and a bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV; RaTG13), the difference at neutral sites was
17%, suggesting the divergence between the two viruses is much larger than previously estimated
vigilance is needed on the severe acute version for sure, but really not every COVID case here is severely acute
looking back more LT, not out of the woods yet, the drop friday did damage, however the DT was pulled out by the ON push, which setup another prop job at close
there is some CN data sunday, but this may all be a play at the FOMC, building expectations
the anticipation of any rate cut news triggers these huge spikes, which are immediately sold
as if buy the rumor, sell the news were on steroids in the backdrop of a slew of negative events
with COVID slamming atop any patchwork easing, the difficulty of finding a supportive policy
is really dependent on lessening uncertainty, what exactly could the FED do here to reassure
in concert with effective global containment of an outlier, think BOJ and the tsunami crisis but bigger
Fukushima took a year to resolve during a fragile era, post recovery, after a systemic financial crisis
in the face of stabilizing efforts, in the backdrop of a more stable financial system
markets may be more willing to look forward and discount the pandemic
not as fast as the 2018 V bottom, the damage here is bigger but there is a possibility for EOY recovery
the further away from china, there is a supply lag, china is already recovering, incoming data might reflect this
in some ways this is a blessing in disguise, as the frothiness was unsustainable, an elevator down
the strength and rate of the stairs back up will be a tell to the real foundation and provide growth targets
energy sector is a large drag on the index, subtracting the sector might actually show a more positive picture
as energy has been in a DT for quite a while since BOJ busted the yen and commodities slammed with a strong DXY
other sectors like consumer staples with the hoarding are still off, similar to discretionary
unlike other sectors, crude has not stemmed the bleeding yet, pending SPR buying and OPEC drama resolution
finally going to add simply, that condition is way OS, has to bounce, perhaps has already begun, the bounce would transform conditions into a possible v-turn, removing last week's tantrum, this would actually re-position as a 50% retrace, coupled with positive divergence would transform into the initiation of a strong wave that pushes through monthly range into Q1 territory, basically a rewind reversal
the options volume has not had precise moments to catch up, so the tailing event would re-form proper liquidity, again the psychology would be on a fear mongering basis, seeing the other side beyond the crowded hoarding is probably for the best
during the lows, there were sizeable bids at the bottom in the overnight, at the time, really thought they were spoofed, but if they were actually filled orders and VX has cleared the squeeze, then vol sellers might return alongside anticipation of stimulus, etc., perhaps put sellers wanting to buy in lower if possible
think a slow-motion flash crash over the week, a spring clearance event, with the current events heavy enough to provide weight for decent entries
you can also think of this as a discounted scenario of the on-going trade dispute, and with the downside priced in as worst-case thanks to an outlier covid event, one can build upon the potential upside from this basis point, H2 2019 was pretty extended honestly considering the dampening from trade-related issues
and energy is hitting lows prematurely, which is deeply discounting future events, so LT positioning is slowly realizing some value here, some may be waiting for the actual tech signs to avoid being too early
pundits might have motives to push prices down further, but consider the demand zone, FTSE and DAX, they are even providing images for mean-reversion strats, they are almost yelling at you, past the fear
for example, in previous flash crashes, the price drop in the half-hour did not immediately trigger a recessionary lean, a reflection of a few days is an impression, the actual YTD, monthlies, quarter will paint a clearer picture of this reflexive sentiment, again this was a very thin window, reactionary, undigested
the stopped might seek re-buy ins, holders might seek better value, spiked hedges might be letting go, the tides can shift, early-mid-late participants in turn, and VX highs as divergence vs indexes is also worth considering
the eurodollar issue that haunted 2008 can be acknowledged and avoided by providing liquidity, they are packaging all this info for you with a negative spin, but is it really, don't be a gartman muppet, think of the banking moral hazard forcing the fed's hand, pressuring hedgies, indirect retaliation for volcker rule limitations
this kind of technical drop has actually primed the pump, orchestrated or not, you decide, OFC the trend if your friend, but these are range lows and PB would provide a better op, not sure about the wave dev or how this will form but things to consider
watching outbreak, interesting how E1101 was antidote for developed bio weapon
searching around, high strength wipes like caviwipes and sporicidin are available still, min lead time 1 week
toilet paper alternatives like tissue and wet wipes still around, connections to med/lab might be useful
//
actually just noticed something on the late day spike, with high vol, entries need to be very selective, the spike did not satisfy all conditions, so the uptick has to be taken with a grain of salt, the close shifted a bit so that is a plus
throughout the week most of the hard moves down happened in extended hours, there are some down moves during regular hours but they are not as convincing
though fewer, the up moves also occur outside of regular hours, those during the regular time frame are less convincing
the last spike however, looked more similar to global moves, with a large volume spike at close pushing flows positive
this might be the initial sign, coupled with a huge positive MOC
altogether, this suggests more of a global issue vs domestic, euro-dollar funding, currency stress, more of a shockwave
while domestically, price holds the range but still whipsaws, think grabbing hold of a slippery fish that has ventured outside of regular hours, is contained but once again escapes in the overnight
this sort of low volume breakout profile has layered patches of structure, as energy has been released throughout, certain levels are now defining more confined states, if this is true, vol should diminish, perhaps consolidation
that is, if this carp can be seized not only during the day but also contained overnight, carpe noctum if you will via systematic calming, re-stabilization
that cage might be the return to normalcy brought on by options/MMs, as suggested here
someone has to tame the beast as the MMs are not stepping in, one blew up on short vol earlier in the month, this feels more like a titration, offering the minimal support necessary to contain the major issue
from the other side, knowing that the FOMC is this week, players may be forcing their hand to maximize the amount of stimulus offered, again moral hazard
barry is calling this a side-effect of passive investing or a CTA, buy above X level and close below Y level, sell below Z level causing a feedback loop as price capitulates, so then, when do these CTAs close their shorts?
keep in mind that CTAs may have triggered the H2 19 buying spree, but as algos, they did flip long without emotion, guess we watch nomura for more on these flows, follow the leader, even CTAs are lagging on sells
for all we know some of the so-called CTAs, could be a subset located at 33 liberty, one should be more concerned with an electronic version of covid
//
POMO, looks like dollar weakness, would also help swaps, the floodgates are opening hopefully
now comes the reason for the pump, to halt on limit down, standby
some good points, cuts already prior to FOMC event, and cleanest dirty shirt status might actually strengthen DXY
aside from technicals down, flows kinda positive for some reason, offers stacked on the DOM
correction, FOMC event has been shifted forward, is the current event, will wait for confirmation
guess in the overnight, one way to stabilize is to just close off, ZN bid, but still is not bid enough, something have to catch up or give
some CN data later, was also neg, interesting how HSI is saving some face in the DT, more damage control here for some reason
this round of fed titration seems more like a sledgehammer, better overshoot than under rn
BOJ moved their event up to Monday mid-day, concerted CB easings, market supportive moves
this is almost like currency catch-up moves, for some time weak against USD
all except for JPY, which is the second fork of the AUD/JPY, if both ease, the carry trades would be back on
USD/JPY has been suffocated for some time, EUR/AUD is another possibility, even just AUD/USD with nil DXY rates
commodities would be pushed lower, keeping inflation in check, so this may be part of the concerted move
would explain ZN, GC going lower, with this anticipation, some kind of puzzle ongoing innit, 6S is interesting too
//
bond-index correlation is still outta wack, they have to be in sympatico instead of 180 for this to work