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Sober Journey With S&P


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  #51 (permalink)
 
HumbleTrader's Avatar
 HumbleTrader 
Vancouver Canada
, Always learning
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
Broker: IB & CQG
Trading: Expert loser in YM, DAX and Nikkei
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,917 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,735
Thanks Received: 3,549


SoberTrader View Post
Trade 11 Long

Long ES 7588.25
Stop:7573.50
Target:7602.50

I want to make a comment on your risk vs reward, if you don't mind.

15 points stop for a 15 points gain (approx). R:R is 1. Ideally you want this to be better and closer to 2. However, it's acceptable (and I do that a lot) if you are taking a high probability trade. This could qualify as one, at-least based on the recent price action of gap downs being closed by bulls, but bears were more decisive today in taking Y-L and hence I consider this as a low probability set-up.


SoberTrader View Post
Trade 12 Long

Entry 7576
Stop 7562
Target:7602

14 points stop for 26 points gain (approx). Looks better on paper but your actual stop/exit was -22 pts. Again R:R is closer to 1. This set up has even lower probability than the previous trade as the downtrend is established now and you are betting for a huge reversal day.

If this is real money, I commend your overall discipline in accepting loss. If not, it's a futile exercise.


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  #52 (permalink)
SoberTrader
Las Vegas
 
Posts: 33 since Feb 2026
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 31


HumbleTrader View Post
I want to make a comment on your risk vs reward, if you don't mind.

15 points stop for a 15 points gain (approx). R:R is 1. Ideally you want this to be better and closer to 2. However, it's acceptable (and I do that a lot) if you are taking a high probability trade. This could qualify as one, at-least based on the recent price action of gap downs being closed by bulls, but bears were more decisive today in taking Y-L and hence I consider this as a low probability set-up.



14 points stop for 26 points gain (approx). Looks better on paper but your actual stop/exit was -22 pts. Again R:R is closer to 1. This set up has even lower probability than the previous trade as the downtrend is established now and you are betting for a huge reversal day.

If this is real money, I commend your overall discipline in accepting loss. If not, it's a futile exercise.

Thank you for the insight. Yes trade ! was just wrong basically as soon as I hit the bid it started going against me. Trade 2 actually moved my way 12 points, but I wanted the moonshot reversal and refused to accept what market offered. A old trading demon popped up.

And yes real money but with micros not minis. Trying to train my brain to think in points not dollars so starting with micros.


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  #53 (permalink)
 
HumbleTrader's Avatar
 HumbleTrader 
Vancouver Canada
, Always learning
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
Broker: IB & CQG
Trading: Expert loser in YM, DAX and Nikkei
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,917 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,735
Thanks Received: 3,549



SoberTrader View Post
Thank you for the insight. Yes trade ! was just wrong basically as soon as I hit the bid it started going against me. Trade 2 actually moved my way 12 points, but I wanted the moonshot reversal and refused to accept what market offered. A old trading demon popped up.

And yes real money but with micros not minis. Trying to train my brain to think in points not dollars so starting with micros.

Real money is the best teacher. I'm glad you are not in SIM and trading micros.

I also trade MES now (after initial reckless and plan-less trading with ES back in the days). However, if I want to risk even less, especially when trying new strategies or indicators, I downsize to SPY and take 1/2 to 1/4 risk of MES. I also like SPY for laissez-faire intraday trading. I never trade SIM.

I was selling SPY @ the open yesterday. Covered it at a decent spot for 25 pts profit (MES equivalent) and then re-shorted the bounce for a conservative 15 pts profit. Though I missed the later bearish move, it was intentional as it was a trade against the past statistical odds which favored longs.


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