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Pretty range bound overnight. Bias at the moment is bearish but I don't see opportunity right now outside of the SR boundaries. I'd be interested in a short at the upper SR range (20,391 and 2327.50) if price approaches and there is bullish weakness, or a long at the lower SR edges if there is bearish weakness down there. Analysis first will be my goal again today. I'm also going to try to put a little more focus on the ES today.
11:15
No trades yet today; kind of a confusing morning. So far my bias and read of price action has been very good, so I'm pleased with that - but that's not been translated into trades. I've seen 3 spots where I could be going long but the target price has been unclear for each one. If I use the upper SR zone I've had good RR on each potential trade, but the market (ES in particular) has given me nothing to indicate that the upper SR zone is a logical target - more of a hopeful one. If using the last swing high, then the RR has not been good enough.
So I've been marking the areas as potential trades and following them but not actually trading them. So far, the first two longs would have scratched for break even unless I took a premature exit. Of the now 3 trades, 2 have hit at least 1R with the 3rd one still alive.
I'm not too bothered about not trading these areas based on the difficultly to pick a reasonable target. While I want to be aggressive, I also want to be intelligent; I don't want to be making sloppy trades that, upon review, I had no business making.
14:45
Well, today has been a bit of a waste. I tried to do too much today, paying attention to both the ES and the YM...that was just too much. There was too much going on at critical times and I ended up missing valid entries on both.
It is interesting that as of right now the intraday range on the ES is 15.50, which would be 155 YM points. However, the range on the YM is only 109 points. These two were definitely not in sync this morning. I mean they were generally moving together but the ES was pulling back a lot deeper than the YM; this is where the larger ES range was created. I have no idea what this means, other than it just is. I do know that trying to watch these equally is only going to produce frustration at this point in time. Maybe later I can do this but not now, especially with my work stuff to do as well.
15:30
Wrapping it up as it's Tuesday and I need to leave early. Not as much going on in the afternoon but this afforded me time to review the day so far on both YM and ES. I already identified my struggle today so I won't restate it. It's still interesting to me the difference in the range today between the ES and YM. Looking back to the start of the year the average on the YM is 111 points while the ES average is 12.63 points, so a little higher. I'm sure that over a longer timeline it's basically even.
I'll do my usual review tonight and be ready to start again in the morning. Not so much of a bad day today but I also didn't accomplish much.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
New highs overnight with some selling pressure since that time. Bias is currently bearish, but that could certainly change quickly on the open or even before. I'm going to follow the ES today instead of the YM; I won't try to trade both again today. I will go through the YM after the close to identify trades and record them. Attention will be to reading strength and weakness first, identifying trade opportunities second and only when I'm confident on my read - I won't hurry into trades if I'm confused or unclear. I have some work commitments late morning into early afternoon so I won't be able to trade from around 11:00 until 12:30 or 13:00.
11:30
Not much in terms of entries so far today. I was looking to get long after the ES tagged 39.25; I was looking for a weak pullback to stall out somewhere between 37 and 38. The ES just touched 38.0 but that was as low as it got - not the action I was looking for so there was no entry available for me.
I'm getting ready to leave the office for about an hour. I'll evaluate things when I return and go from there. Maybe there will be something to trade in the afternoon.
13:30
Went short a bit ago based on a stall near the current HOD; my bias was also bearish based on the move lower that started around 11:30. This was a steady but weaker pullback to the original scene of the crime, and I got a nice rejection to sell in a good spot.
Initially the trade worked well, hitting 1R 5 or 6 minutes after my entry. After this push lower I moved my stop to break even. I was really looking for some sort of continuation down to the 37 area with 37.50 being my target. In this case, price was just not ready to move lower at this time. Price has now returned to the 42.50/43.0 area and I'm watching closely.
14:40
Just reviewed the trade above again, that was a mistake. When I got back into the office I was pretty quick about reviewing the action while I was gone. In doing so I made an error in bias. Bias really should have been bullish still and I would not short this area with a bullish bias.
15:30 - End of Day
Kind of an error filled day. I saw some entries but a lot of the times I saw them late. I was reading bias and flow pretty well until I got back from being out of the office and made a mistake there. That was just a little sloppy and rushed, even though there wasn't a rush. I believe seeing entries late was a little down to watching the ES primarily as I've been watching the YM mostly lately.
Having gone back through the trading day a few times while price has not been doing much I'm continuing to see those areas where I should have been more active but was not. There were some really good opportunities today and there was the possibility to have a nice profitable day. The fact that I was unable to capitalize on some good trades is a little frustrating but I suppose understandable. The reversal patterns that I depend on for entries look different on the ES than they do on the YM, and it took me some time to adjust to seeing them on the YM so it stands to reason that I'll need a little time to re-adjust to them with the ES.
I'm going to focus more on ES for the rest of the week, going through YM after hours to replay the trading day there. Tonight I will do a lot of review. I'm also going to get to work a little earlier tomorrow than usual, so if I don't have other things to do I'll spend the extra time reviewing before the market opens.
A little bit of weakness overnight but I'm not reading too much into that. 4 of the last 5 days have been double digit gains on the ES from close to previous close so at some point the market is due at least some consolidation. With price currently trading under 49.75 both short and long trades are opened up. Not much of a reaction to the 8:30 economic data and bias is currently bearish; that could quickly change at or before the open depending on the reaction from the initial push lower at 8:30.
I have a few meetings at work today but nothing that will take me out of the office. I WILL NOT make the mistake today that I did yesterday in rushing my analysis and misreading bias.
I'm going to again watch only the ES today, looking at strength and weakness first and only considering trades after I have a good feel for who is in control and I've anticipated future price direction. At the same time, I'd like to react better to my reversal entries when they appear; I've been pretty slow in doing this all week.
10:45
Real choppy so far. Had a few spots for an entry short earlier but the RR was not good. Good demand down around 43.0, I like the strength of the move off that level. Bias is bullish and I'm looking for a pullback to buy; I'd like to get something around the 45 area for a ride up to my SR zone above at 49.75. Given the chop that might not be likely here in the morning.
11:00
So that was not the kind of pullback I was looking for. I swear sometimes I just need to type something for the complete opposite to happen...it's kind of uncanny. Nice reaction from the bulls right around an SR zone I have but I did not buy based off of it. Bias is back to bearish but I'm also not keen to short right away considering how far the ES has moved in such a short time. I would like either a deep pullback from here or something extended or over multiple legs. ES has moved 9 points in 10 minutes which, considering the volatility lately, might be all it can do without bringing in some buyers first.
12:40
Busy the last little bit but the ES wasn't doing much anyway. I did try a few shorts after the ES pulled off the LOD, ended up with 2 trades for -1.0 total. Just was not happening. Price is right now pushing up against 44.0, it will be interesting to see if it can break this level. If it does, there seems to be some potential for it to continue higher. If there is a good break of 44.0 I'll be looking at the strength of the move. Ideally I'd like a nice push higher followed by a quick retest of ~44.0 to be met with demand; this might set up a good spot for a long entry.
I suppose another option is a rejection at 44.0 and a move back down to the bottom of this range around 40.0. I'm not considering a short in this area but might consider a long down around 40.0 if I see something that would fit my entry criteria.
End of Day
If I had to pick a title for today, I'd pick "Another day another lesson learned?"
My plan partly revolves around determining bias, bull or bear. I aim to trade with bias with the exception of weakness at a higher time frame SR level. This means that if I have a bullish bias I will only short if the market I am trading hits a predefined resistance point with weakness; in this case I will short if the RR to a logical target makes sense. To help determine bias, I use a pivot which is based on swing highs and lows basically. If the market makes a new significant low and my bias is already bearish, then I'll adjust my pivot if the start of the move that made the new low is lower than my current pivot position. I suppose it's mostly science with a little bit of art.
Yesterday I misjudged bias because I rushed my analysis. Today I misjudged bias because I used too much science and not enough art. I moved my pivot down as the ES was making new lows at 11:05 and 11:10. Technically the ES did make new lows here, 4 ticks worth. But it's how they were made and what happened each time that I ignored. Prices here were rejected each time; pretty strong rejection. Now at the time I didn't consider this aspect, I just adjusted my pivot lower which later caused a cascade of wrongness.
Near the end of the day my bias had changed 6 times! I have been tracking the number of bias changes I see each day and the previous maximum was 3, the average is 1.1. I then went back and started looking more closely and looked at this 11:05-11:10 area again. I replayed the day, this time keeping my pivot where it was and not adjusting it for these new lows. The day was a lot different.
So this is my lesson of the day. Maybe I'll make this mistake a few more times before it sinks in, maybe this is the only one I'll need. I kind of already knew better than to adjust my pivot lower, but I did - I'll chalk it up to an overall lack of experience and screen time. I'll learn and move on.
So basically all afternoon I'm thinking, "holy crap, this is super choppy" because my context is off. I can make lemonade out of those lemons though. I recognized this and adjusted my entry style, not relying on stop entries but waiting for my normal confirmation and then setting a limit order a few ticks higher - this to account for the chop. I was also unfazed by the chop, I kept plugging my entries in as I saw them. I also read strength well. Considering I had the incorrect overlay, I think I did okay. Replaying the day with the proper bias overlay, it surely would have been a lot easier - and more productive.
In the end I was -4 ticks. I did skip a couple of short entries because I had a bullish bias at the time, entries that I would have taken had my bias been bearish. This would have made my -4 tick day turn into a +4.5 point day.
The fact that I can misread an entire afternoon and not get hurt P/L wise is good I think. The -4 ticks would have happened either way; the bias error really resulted in me skipping some profitable trades.
So 1 overlying mistake today but I'm pleased about 2 things, 1) my ongoing analysis of price and 2) my ability to see trades that fit my plan at the time and get into and manage them well. I won't always make such an error that I did today - maybe I won't ever make that error again. But I will need to be able to do the other things and today I did them well.
So a bit of homework tonight; I might get more done with no Champions League games recorded.
Bearish overnight but SR at 35.75-37.25 has held this morning. There have been bullish reactions as price has tested this level on 2/15 and 2/16 so it will be interesting to see how traders handle this area today, provided we see it tested after the open. Moving into the open ES appears to be in a range between 37 and 41.
Same goal today, analysis first, trade second. I've made some errors this week in my analysis so I'd like to get this back right today. I believe if my trend/bias analysis is correct then then entries will be easier to get.
11:20
Not a bad opening range but activity has really died off. Price has been mostly in no man's land this morning. Although there was some resistance around 43-44 yesterday this isn't an area I am interested in. As I'm typing this price is dropping close to the LOD which is right at an SR zone for me as well...maybe there will be something soon.
14:45
Just exited a long trade I took late this morning. I kept and keep wondering if there are stops somewhere up here that will push price higher quickly. I thought maybe they'd be just above 43 but price continues to grind higher. I exited for +4.0 points, a few ticks above my initial target. Here again is part of the difficultly of trading 1 lot; I'd have liked to exit a bit here and left some on for the potential ride higher into the close. I'm pleased with the +4 but I was aware at the time that I might be leaving food on the table. At the same time, there's never a guarantee that price will continue to move up, sellers could come in at any time and drive prices down - so it's a guess either way. Of course the old saying, if you want price to move in your direction just exit your trade will probably be true here too.
Given how late in the day it is I'm probably finished trading for the day/week at this point. Once again I had a mistake filled week that took just 1 trade to reverse the whole thing and make the week profitable. If I can just eliminate the mistakes the end up costing me money I'll be so much further ahead. If I can also eliminate the mistakes that cause me to miss trades I'll be in even better shape. I'm very much under performing versus my optimal results.
As for the week, I didn't really trade Monday because I was watching too many things and also nothing on Tuesday. Tuesday could have been a very profitable day but I was missing signals - adjusting to watching the ES again I suppose. Wednesday and Thursday I was very active, hitting entries but I had the wrong bias during parts of the day. Correctly reading bias/trend on Wednesday and Thursday would have produced different (profitable) results. That fact that I ended the day today both profitable and mistake free is good. Yes, it was an easy day to read but I could have skipped the potential trade or not managed it properly and exited way too early. I ended up holding the trade today for a bit over 3 hours, so I was definitely patient.
I will do some study/review over the weekend; practicing reading bias and looking for good trade locations. I know that if I keep doing what I'm doing I will reduce my mistakes over time. I may never eliminate them 100% but I need to get to the point where my mistake free days outnumber my days with mistakes.
My confidence gets a boost when I figure out my mistakes and when I have days like today where I read and trade well and I see how just 1 good trade can wipe out many mistakes during the week. I see from my review and analysis how I can continue to make progress and what kind of potential there is if I can more effectively and efficiently implement my trading plan. And I absolutely LOVE that I can review and understand where I went wrong and why and how that makes sense in the bigger picture and not just that I didn't buy when the RSI was here and the stochastic was there and the EMA was over at that spot. I can review and work through the day in review and try to understand what buyers and sellers were doing and why; why I saw that or why I should have seen that - and that's a great feeling.
Bullish bias into the open. My charting is having issues this morning; hopefully those are resolved soon. Same deal today, focus on price action and analysis first then look for trade locations.
End of Day
Was really distracted today and didn't get much time to watch the action. Having gone back over everything in review, there was one good entry off the open I could have taken, not sure I would have though.
Retest overnight failed to reach the 2/21 RTH and the ES has moved lower since that time. Bias is bearish going into the open with price hanging around the lower end of an SR zone. I like the idea of a quick pop to 58/59 off the open that fails; I'd be keen to sell something like that. Now that I've typed it there's no way it will happen though, market gods and all...
I'll be taking a siesta around 14:00 for the FOMC minutes release but I'll consider trades around 14:30-15:00 if the market isn't too wild at that time. I'll also be aware of the 10:00 home sales report.
I was super distracted yesterday but in reality, there were only a couple of spots in the morning where I can see it making sense to go long. However, the pullbacks were more stalls so being honest with myself I don't know that I'd have taken those...a big fat maybe on both. I don't care to trade without an upper reference point; that's a big deal for me.
Again today I'm going to really focus on price, price action, strength/weakness, bias/trend and analyzing all of those things. I'll develop my expectations for future price direction and evaluate from there. Trade locations will be secondary to all of this.
When I was going through older contracts over the 3-day weekend, I was really focusing on this type of analysis. I was looking for areas where either buying or selling a weak pullback made sense; I kept asking myself where is this likely to turn and why would it turn there? As I was doing this the trades kind of popped out. I'd like to get to that point on the hard right edge. Of course it's much more comfortable when looking at the H2012 contract or whatever, but I certainly have room to develop in this area. Today will be another opportunity to do just that, and maybe make some good trades along the way.
10:00
I kind of got what I was looking for but there has been no follow through in either direction so far this morning, bust some low range chop.
11:45
It's either an odd day or I'm just off. 7.50 point range so far; not great clearly but there could be some potential trades in that kind of a range - but I've not found any. Up to this point I believe my read has been pretty good, and there have been a couple of potential spots to enter but the RR was just not good enough. At this time price is really caught dancing around an SR zone that I have but there's not much action IN that zone; so I'm not invalidating it at the moment because so far the zone is acting like a zone and mostly repelling price. I'm happy with my patience at this point, and not forcing something stupid.
Maybe something will loosen up before 14:00. If not, I'm unlikely to do anything. My bias is bearish and I'd be interested in a short if price stalls around 63 again. I could take a long if price tests lower, around 57.50 or so and there's a hard rejection of that area but it might be difficult to work out a good RR in that scenario.
End of Day
Wrapping it up...no good trades for me today. There were a couple of shouts for a long entry after the FOMC minutes, right at the edge of an SR zone, but I didn't like the overall price action so I stayed out. I could have been very aggressive and gotten into them both, 1 would have scratched break even and I'd still be holding the other at this point with a small profit and stop at break even. But, I'm okay staying out of these trades as there just was not much movement all day.
I feel good about my analysis and read today. I'm okay with not trading as there really were not opportunities that fit my plan. Some near misses as price got to areas of interest several times but I just could not work out good trades any of those times. Had there been just a bit more volatility it could have been a different story.
As it was I put on a Dead concert from 2/15/73, closed my office door and just relaxed for most of the afternoon.
As I am writing this the ES testing the ATH (edit - just broke). The unemployment number was right at consensus and did not move the market at all. Bias is bullish heading into the open. I have a very busy afternoon starting at 14:00 with back to back to back meetings; then I have to leave to pick up my daughter from school so any trading will be done in the morning. I might take my 14:00 meeting in my office and if I do I'll keep an eye on things and trade if something comes up.
If the bulls are still awake up at these prices then I'll probably be long only today, the exception being a bias reversal but that's not been happening lately. It's also been difficult for me to get long on these grinding up days because the pullbacks are more like stalls AND I don't have a logical target higher to measure my RR.
It might be another day of watching and not trading, which is a bit of a bummer but it's not something I can control or do anything about aside from changing my trading plan which is not something I'm interested in doing.
As usual, it's analysis first, entry second.
10:15
ES moved down off the open but it was a choppy/weak move so I was looking for a spot to buy. Price got down to my pivot area and that's where I really started looking for a stall or a reversal signal. The trade moved sideways/down for a bit before I got a nice bullish candle. It was at this point that I was really looking for continuation...that didn't happen so I scratched the trade at break even. This ended up being a good decision as price collapsed shortly after.
11:05
Some nice movement but nothing to trade at this point. There were a couple of long opportunities (reversals) at 59.0 but I could not work out a good RR so no trades there. This would have technically been a counter trend trade as price was steaming into that area but it stopped then stalled. This stalling at an SR spot along with what's a relatively large move down (in the context of recent movement) was good enough for me to consider going long here had the RR been appropriate.
With price having moved below my SR zone between 57.50 and 59.0, I'm expecting a push lower to the next SR zone below. After moving below 57.50 price did retest this area and failed. Again, I could not work out a good RR to enter a trade here. Further, the ES has moved many points in a short period of time and while it may well move even further down, it's more reasonable to expect some fill before that happens. I've tried to be more aware of range and range expansion with these types of moves and not enter just as the move is exhausting.
At this point I'm open to long and short trades; long if there's a rejection at lower SR and short if I can get a pull back to a reasonable level and see weakness there.
12:50
Another odd day for me. I've gone back over things many times at this point to see that I'm reading things correctly and not missing anything. So far I can't see anything that I should change.
I was looking for the ES to potentially move lower to the 51.75/53.0 area; I thought a good rejection there would be good for a long trade. Price did move there not long after my 11:05 update but I could not find anything actionable; just no trades there fit my plan based on the price action.
I did try a short that was near my pivot that I scratched at break even before the ES took off to the upside. I see many trading opportunities (and have seen them real time) but the RR is just no good. Between the swings and my SR spots everything is just so tight in this area that I cannot get a trade to make sense based on risk. I then look at the 14.50 point range up to now and think, "how's this possible - that kind of a range and no good trades?" Even so, I've reviewed the day up to this point and I just can't find something that makes sense.
I'm not going to force something that isn't there based on my plan. I have about an hour before my meetings get started so I'll consider something that comes up in the next 30 minutes but beyond that I'm going to have to be a spectator at best. Again, really odd day so far. At least I'm not in the red.
14:30 - End of Day
Taking my meeting on the phone and watching the ES. I did take a long entry just after 13:00 that lost 5 ticks. I've looked at it and I still agree with the entry, just didn't work.
This afternoon has not yet provided any clarity for me. While I am watching price moving and I believe I'm structuring it properly, it's just really choppy with no follow through. Zooming out a bit I can now see what has transpired, but when I try to analyze and measure the price action it's a mess in terms of me being able to make a good entry that fits my trading plan.
While there were probably good spots in the morning, nothing fit my RR requirement; there was just too much "stuff" in the way, either a swing high/low or an SR area. That melded into what I'm seeing as afternoon low volatility and low volume chop.
When I've had difficult days lately I have been able to go back in review after hours and see areas where trades would have made sense, or I've found that my measurement of bias was off. I've been doing that today and I just don't see any errors that I've made - just a dog day.
I'll do the review tonight when I get home, maybe I'll see it differently then. If not, this would be the worst trading day I've seen in many weeks. If that's the case, and I'm out 5 ticks, then I'll just accept it...losing 5 ticks on the worst day in over a month isn't bad.
Bearish action overnight, bias is bearish at this point heading into the open. Below my SR zone at 51.75 there's not much holding price up until we get to 35-37. There is an area around 49 that I'll be aware of but if that does not hold it seems there could be a move to the 35 area.
I'll also be aware of price holding these levels and popping higher. Either way, we're pretty far (relatively) away from new all time highs so there's the possibility of some good 2 way action today. I do have a meeting at 9:30 this morning but after that my day is pretty clear.
This has been a pretty crap week in terms of trades and P/L. Just not much there at all. I've gone through reviews many times, at least 40 times, and I really don't see anything that I realistically would have done. I did notice yesterday morning an area where I could have potentially gone long - just before 11:30. ES stopped right at the upper end of an SR zone I had marked and turned. I was thinking at the time that I was not going to short right away on a simple pull back because the ES was extended - too far too fast given recent volatility. After the bottom at 53.0, we got a small bounce followed by a failed re-test of that area, followed by a strong move up. There's a nice signal just as this move is initiated that, looking at it now, stands out as a good spot to buy. However, I was not thinking about buying - I was only thinking of not shorting.
This is an area I've identified many times as an area for improvement. This kind of a trade fits my plan; price failing to break through an SR zone and I fade that move. In this case, I'm fading weakness - price is unable to break an SR area but I'm also trading against the current trend. Most of my trades are with the current trend, so changing my brain to watch for these areas where counter trend trades exist has been difficult. I was doing a little better before the market decided to start grinding up, so I have not really considered any counter trend trades in at least a week - none have really made sense. So perhaps it's just that I've not been in the habit of looking for them lately.
At any rate, I'll be more aware of that possibility today. I am going to continue to focus on price analysis first and foremost. If I'm doing a good job of this, I'll be in a position to get good trading opportunities.
It's a tricky thing, this trading stuff.
11:40
Busy day for me at work, been pretty distracted. I have taken a couple of shorts up here where price rejected off the 10:00 economic news (58-60 zone) and scratched both for break even. Both were good trades; the second one I could have definitely managed it a little better and been more patient with price breaking down but I was involved in a phone call at the time and was having a really hard time concentrating on my trade...realistically I probably should not have even attempted a trade at the time but the entry made a lot of sense, even at my brain less than 50% focusing.
Maybe this afternoon will settle down some...hopefully.
13:00
Blah day for me. Price seems to be getting stuck in these little ranges then moving out very quickly to a new range to be stuck for a while. Nothing I can trade. I've tried 3 shorts today; good spots I believe and I've scratched all 3...just no movement.
Perhaps after Europe closes the ES will move a bit more freely. Given the negative European session and the fact that we've held steady after the cash open the probable move IMO is to the upside; this based on the ES not continuing to go down off the open. My bias is still bullish at this point so I'll try to trade accordingly. I'm pretty bad at predictions so the ES will probably drop 20 points at 14:30...
15:55 - End of Day
Pretty frustrating end to what's really been a frustrating week. I feel like I've been spinning my wheels this week and not really accomplished anything, today being the icing on top.
I've been sitting here watching the ES rip higher for the last 30 minutes wondering how in the hell I could have realistically and logically gotten in on the move. I completely do not see a way aside from trading the breakout of what was the high of the day - and I don't trade breakouts. The best thing I can say about today (and this week) is that I didn't lose a significant amount of money - flat for the day and down 5 ticks for the week. I felt good about my read of the price action today and really for the entire week, so that's good. Perhaps part of my frustration was that this was really a 3 day trading week for me with holiday Monday and me not being able to trade Tuesday.
To have a good week reading price action, structure, etc but to come out with empty pockets at the end of that...that's grinding at me really. One one hand, I could say "that's just trading" yet on the other hand I feel like I should have been able to take advantage of the opportunities that were there.
Looking at today's trades, entries were good. I moved stops to break even as soon as possible but there was the opportunity to delay this based on feedback from price action. Being more patient today could have resulted in a profit of +4.75 points if I'd just taken the 1R exit; if I'd held on for the target or a break even stop the result would have still been break even because my targets were never hit. However, had I been more patient other days this week (again where feedback suggested I could have) those break even scratches would have turned into losers. If I'm not being so strict on moving my stops up, I could well have held onto the losers and bailed on the partial winners, instead ending the week minus a bunch rather than minus 5 ticks.
It's at this point where in the past I'd start going method hunting, looking for some other way to trade. It seems like I forever have a good run feeling that I know what I'm doing and making progress and then there's a wall and the best thing to do is just go another direction...of course I always am running into walls.
So this weekend I'm going to just review the last several weeks and look for places where maybe I misread something or could have entered a trade that I didn't see real time or during post market review. I could certainly stand to become more familiar with the end of the trend areas, like yesterday. Knowing that the market won't move to infinity in one direction in a few hours, I need to better identify areas where there is counter trend opportunity. This is part of my trading plan, to identify weakness in the trend in an area of SR and fade that weakness; not to expect a complete trend reversal but if the RR makes sense to a logical possible target then to take the trade. This is something I've consistently struggled with, and an area that could have provided a winning trade or two this week.
What I'm not going to do this weekend is add a moving average(s), VWAP standard deviation bands, Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels or anything else to my charts. I'm just going to roll with what I've got going and try to get better at it. I'll accept that this was a shit week for many reasons and try to make next week a little better. I suppose it's all a part of the never ending journey.
New all time highs at the start of the European session but price has since backed off and is no just below an SR zone at 65.75. New orders of durable goods met consensus so there was no reaction to this news at 8:30, though there was a little pop on volume right at 9:00.
Price is in a difficult spot right now. My bias is short here until a break/hold above 65.75. However, this zone of SR I have marked extends up to 67.50, so I would not consider buying an upside break until price moves above 67.50; I would buy a pullback in the 65.75 area in that case. My next spot for a long entry would be down in the 55-56 area.
Even though my bias is short/bear I'm only keen to short if 65.75 holds as resistance. A move/hold above this will cause me to pause until I get further information from the ES. 70.0 is definitely a spot to keep an eye on for a potential short. All things considered, there's going to be a lot more for me to do if the ES moves down first from here, as I have SR levels I'm comfortable with. A big push up off the open may result in another dead day for me, though I'd be watching for a good pullback to potentially buy.
After some pretty good weekend review I've determined that I didn't mess everything up last week, I traded quite well based on my plan. Last week was just one of those weeks where I wasn't going to get good entries based on the way price was moving. Perhaps the only thing that would have made a difference would have been for me to be looking at an even lower time frame for my entries. I've been using a 2-minute chart to define the majority of my entries while looking at a 5-minute chart to define trend/bias, etc. Had I been looking at a 1-minute chart for entries I surely would have had more chances, so I would have been more active for sure. I did not go back and re-trade the week using a 1-minute time frame for entries because I'm not considering using that moving forward at this time.
Last week I made no errors in my read of price action in terms of my bias, so that's great. I believe part of this is because the market was easy to read and part because I was really focused on this aspect. I will again be focusing on this today and throughout the week. The good trade locations should present themselves if I'm reading price action well.
I have a short day today, leaving about 3:30 to pick my daughter up from school. The rest of the week looks pretty calm in terms of scheduled meetings, etc - a departure from last week. Friday I won't be trading as it's Disney day for me and the kids and a few of their buddies; you have to love random teacher workdays.
10:30
Tried a short a little before 10:00, just as the market ran 10 ticks in about 2 minutes, got stopped out on that one for -6 ticks. Now price has drifted up to an area where I'm unsure about. Bias has changed to bullish but I have a lot of resistance marked between 66 and 70, so it does not make sense to me to be long here unless there's a good break of 70 or a pullback that does not change my bias and offers a good RR up to this area, perhaps up to 70.0. I suppose there's a scenario where I'd buy something here with the expectation of testing 70.0 but it would probably be difficult to make the RR work.
In terms of reading the price action, I think I had a good handle on things early and traded accordingly. I don't believe the trade was in error it just didn't work. I was not comfortable with price whipping around from just prior to 10:00 (right as I got stopped out) until ES broke above 66.25...lots of fast up and down in between and I don't exactly know what to do with that information other than see a big fight between bulls and bears and maybe people getting screwed in both directions.
Of the things I was looking to see off the open, this was my least favorite; no clear test of SR below and price stuck in an area where I have a lot of SR marked as potential turning points. Maybe it's a good morning to be a scalper :-/
12:00
No trades since that first short this morning, just nothing that stands out. I do like what I'm seeing since then though; this is one of the better situations in terms of what I would be looking for. My bias is still bullish. Price is moving down but it's a fight every step of the way. It's like the bulls are letting the bears win just so they can feel good before they get blown away; that's how I've seen it up to this point...could change of course.
We're getting closer and closer to the scene of the crime on ES, down to that 62/63 area that took prices higher this morning. The closer we get to that area the more interested I become. What I'd love to see is a push to or a little below 62 that appears to have strength that gets bought - kind of a climax reversal to trap those last shorts. I am looking for something prior to that as well though. We shall see.
13:15
Took a shot at a long just after 12:00, I liked to volume on the move lower and the rejection. Price was not as low as I'd have preferred but what I saw fit my plan. There was just no strength to follow through and I time stopped at break even from 65.25.
15:10
Need to wrap up early today. Wish I could have held my long from earlier that I scratched but holding through chop like that just isn't in the cards for me right now. Maybe tomorrow will be better.
Some premarket economic reports, slight miss on GDP and International Trade a little worse than consensus seems to be the culprit for a major 3 tick reversal at 8:30. Price for me is in no-man's land at the moment, right smack in between 2 SR zones with no discernible trend. Technical bias is bearish but it's going to be difficult justifying a trade around here. I do see the possibility of some support in this 64 area from the afternoon lows from yesterday but I won't use that as a reason to buy.
It seems at this point the best potential trades are fades of the SR above and below, depending of course on what price does if/when it gets there. I think you'd have to say that given the recent overall market strength, it is more likely that 70.75 will break than anything. I would be interested in trading a break/pull back in either direction though as long as it made sense. The more I think about it, the more I like where the ES is trading at the moment - we could see some good 2-way trading.
My trading plan really depends on some volatility being present. I have a time based stop cooked into my plan; I'm looking to enter in a spot where the market is close to a point where there are stops. I'm aiming to find those areas and use that order flow to carry my trade into some profit - maybe not to the target but at least get it going green. Over the last few weeks that is just not happening. In many cases, it would have paid to either loosen or get rid of the time based stop entirely but doing this kind of gets to the core of what I am trying to accomplish in the first place - finding spots where order flow is imminent.
For now, I'm going to just keep plugging along. What I do need is experience getting into and out of trades based on my plan. I just hit the 1 year mark trading futures and during that 1 year I've re-worked my trading plan many times trying many things - many indicators and time frames. I recognize that I need to move past "go" at some point and just trade a plan for a while to get a really good feel for it. So, despite my performance in terms of P/L, and despite the fact that there are probably some small changes I could make to improve the performance (based on market conditions) I won't be doing this. If this same thing happens in February 2018, then my reaction may be different, but for now I just need to stick with what I am doing.
Same deal again today. I keep repeating and typing this but I believe it actually reinforces this point and helps me focus when I write it like this. Today I am going to focus first and foremost on reading price action and determining bias/trend. I need to be especially mindful of my HTF SR levels, really taking time to evaluate price action at these areas. I will also project future price and gain an understanding of what will validate and invalidate my premise. I will then continue to review new information and use this to confirm my premise. If I am able to do this, I will be on the correct side of the market when trades are presented. I will stay away from simply hunting for entries, as this is where I have made errors in the past and lost ticks unnecessarily.
10:35
I've been tracking the opening 40-minute range since July - I then look at range expansion from that point. Today's OR was 2.5 points. I had not previously recorded anything under 3.0. I have noticed that opening ranges under 5 don't generally expand much beyond 10 points but when they do it's often a trend day with 3x or higher range expansion. Not every time, but it does stand out.
11:35
ES volume is ridiculously low...where is everyone? Still this 3.5 point range, pretty worthless. No trades of course; there's no way for me to fashion something out of this.
14:05
It is very difficult to stay focused on a day like today. A lot of things run through my head and I tend to wander mentally. Today I've spent time wondering if/how I should have/could have caught the move lower before it happened. Price was failing right at my pivot area at 66.50 yet I saw no good reason to take a trade there other than the fact that price did fail multiple times and my lean was bearish. These are 2 of the 3 ingredients I would need for an entry and with 1 missing there's no entry.
I also considered buying/fading the impulse low just prior to 12:30. Given the context today I was confident that this would be a bottom - at least for a while and possibly the LOD. However, the reversal happened in an area where I have no SR marked. Had I marked SR near here then it's a long I have to take. Without the SR area, there is no trade based on my plan.
So I'm sitting here flat for today and looking back at so many points I could have had but don't have, and that's bothering me quite a bit; I'd say I'm a little pissed off at the moment. It really feels like whenever I get rolling and comfortable with my trading plan all of the sudden the market just switches off, laughing at me. Now I see good trades all over the place that I won't allow myself to take because it's not in my plan. And of course, if I start taking those same trades tomorrow, I'll get run over.
13:40
I have to wrap up early again today as parent duty calls again. Everything the last 2 weeks has been so start-stop I swear...seems like I'm wasting my time and effort.
Flat today, yet again. Today was another waste of a day.
