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First day back to trading, feeling a bit tired and haven't quite gotten used to waking up at 530 again, I didn't get out of bed until like 645 this morning
Low range ON session, stayed between 5000 and 5017 to the tick, no new high was established (high 5017 set last Friday)
Low volume during ON as well
No news coming out today
Scenarios
Continue this bull rally, we open up ~flat or get close to 5000, we then move up bullish from that and set a new all time high record, creeping bull market with very few opportunities to short (if any). This would be the 4th bull trend day in a row
Low range sideways market - Balance between 5000 and 5020 for the day
Market opens up bear, we test the 5000 area and pullback a bit, then we test it again and break it and start to trend down until ~4775, then we continue the creeping bull rally
We see a correction or a slight pullback (long-term wise) in the market. We open up slightly bull til ~5010 or 5020, we then trend bear for the rest of the day. Easily breaking the 5000, pulling back at the ~4975 area, and trending down until ~4950
We continue bull rally and break new all time highs, we then keep going up until we hit a strong wall of sellers. Strong reversal signs should be there and it could be anywhere, watch the ES/YM for a milestone number to potentially cause this
Setups I'll take today
~Somewhere above all time high record
LF Short
You are looking for very strong reversal signs
You are unlikely to take this setup as signs need to be very strong that we are seeing a daily reversal, or a weekly timeframe pullback. But the option is there.
~5020
LF Short
All time high record is 5017
You are looking for strong signs of a reversal, exhaustion is not a good enough reason to enter this
Stop behind 5020 is a must, behind 5026 is ideal
Safe target is 5003, stretch is 4996, 3rd stretch is 4984 but you must guarantee 14 pts of profit to aim for it
~5020
LF Long
This is a continued break out
Stop behind 5017 is ideal
Safe target is 5034, stretch is 5038, 3rd stretch is 5048 but there should be little-to-no resistance signs out there
~5000
LF Long
You are looking for strong buying around here
Stop behind 4995 is ideal, behind 4999 is a must
Safe target is 5014, stretch is 5019, 3rd stretch is 5024, 4th stretch is time based if we are in a bull trend day but you must guarantee 15 pts of profit to go for it
~5000
LF Short
You are looking for a breakdown trade here
Be careful not to take a pre break down trade
Stop behind 5005 is ideal
Safe target is 4983, stretch is 4976, 3rd stretch is 4961
~4975
LF Short
You are looking for the continued break down
If the market sees a strong daily correction, then you can scale in with a 2nd contract here and aim for the ~4960-4952 area
~4975
LF Long
You are looking for signs of a reversal or strong exhaustion signs
Stop behind 4969 is ideal
Safe target is 4998, stretch is 5007, 3rd stretch is 5016 but you must guarantee 15 pts of profit
~4950
LF Long
You are looking for some buying and that the bear move so far was just a pullback on the weekly timeframe
This could also be ~ end of day move, to hold ON
Stop behind 4949 is ideal
If you are holding this ON then target 4994, but progressively move stop up to secure profits / protect yourself
Psychology goals for the day
0 FOMO trades - Today might be a slow day and there's the chance that you take 0 trades. This is ok, it's a new year and you want to start it off strong with some well executed trades, don't let FOMO cloud your judgment
0 Emotional trades - Same as above
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades - We aren't in a market where you have a splits econd to make a decision, range has been low as well as volumes, plus we stay in areas for a decent amount of time
Do not get greedy with trades - We could have a very low range day here, so being greedy can turn your small winners into losers
Abide by trade management standard
Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules
Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods. I think I might do this for the opening session as well, I'm not seeing any signs that we will see a strong opening either way (30+pts one way from the first 30 minutes)
Maximum of 3 trades a day. only take a 3rd trade if you'd still be up 0.75%. Do not look at P&L to calculate this exactly, just get a good feel for it
All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups. You have a bit of leeway with setup #1, but don't confuse that for 'do anything you want'. You are looking for it to fit a specific scenario
Do not look at P&L
No trading while the market is flat. See that 5014-5003 area? it's the no trade zone today
Let's do this!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
No trades taken today. Only areas that were hit were the all-time high but every time we hit it I didn't see enough signs that we would either break out or reverse. So I passed up on all 4 different occasions that my alarms went off.
The only setup today in my plan that would've been profitable is a long at 5005, but I wasn't going to take an entry higher than 5002 tbh and we never got quite there.
Psychology goals for the day
0 FOMO trades - Today might be a slow day and there's the chance that you take 0 trades. This is ok, it's a new year and you want to start it off strong with some well executed trades, don't let FOMO cloud your judgment- Passed
0 Emotional trades - Same as above- Passed
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades - We aren't in a market where you have a splits econd to make a decision, range has been low as well as volumes, plus we stay in areas for a decent amount of time- Passed
Do not get greedy with trades - We could have a very low range day here, so being greedy can turn your small winners into losers
Abide by trade management standard
Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods. I think I might do this for the opening session as well, I'm not seeing any signs that we will see a strong opening either way (30+pts one way from the first 30 minutes)- Passed
Maximum of 3 trades a day. only take a 3rd trade if you'd still be up 0.75%. Do not look at P&L to calculate this exactly, just get a good feel for it- Passed
All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups. You have a bit of leeway with setup #1, but don't confuse that for 'do anything you want'. You are looking for it to fit a specific scenario
Do not look at P&L- Passed
No trading while the market is flat. See that 5014-5003 area? it's the no trade zone today- Passed
Rest of the goals I never got a chance to either pass or fail them.
See you tomorrow!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
New all-time high was established yesterday - 5029.50
Only news is JOLTS @ 10
BIDU up 1.3% pre open
YHOO up 1.2% pre open
DB down 2.3% pre open
The prep for today is similar to yesterday's apart from a couple of # changes
Scenarios
Open up slightly bull until we get to all-time high area. Won't break area on contaact but will move down to ON low or 5000. We will continue the bull rally from there
Open up bear slightly until we find a support zone, continue bull trend from there
Open up bull until we find a strong resistance zone, pullback on first contact and then continue bull trend after that
Open up bull until we find a strong resistance zone, pullback and then reverse the trend
Open up bull until we find a strong resistance zone, we start to see a weekly time frame pullback, which would mean that we trend bear for the rest of the day or until we are in the 4900s again
Open up with some aggressive selling until we find a strong support zone in the 4900s
Range between 5030 and 5000 for the day
Setups I'll take today
~5050
LF Short
We could see some signs of slowing ~ this milestone area
Do not enter thsi preemptively, only if some strong reversal signs are there
Stop behind 5051 is a must
Safe target is 5033, stretch is 5014, 4th stretch is 5003, 5th stretch is 4983(only if swing and something has fundamentally changed)
~5030
LF Long
Continued break out
Stop behind 5025 is ideal
Safe target is 5044, stretch is 5048
Be careful that we don't see the same thing as yesterday where we go above this 5-10 points, but then come back down as you will lose a break out and a reversal trade if this happens
~5030
LF Short
You are looking for reversal signs here
Exhaustion can be good enough but only if it's higher time frame exhaustion
Stop behind 5033 is ideal
Safe target is 5016,s tretch is 5011, 3rd stretch is 5006, 4th stretch can go lower but only if you are willing to hold it as a swing and if something has fundamentally changed
Be careful that we don't see the same thing as yesterday where we go above this 5-10 points, but then come back down as you will lose a break out and a reversal trade if this happens
~5000
LF Long
You are looking for strong buying around here
Stop behind 4995 is ideal, behind 4999 is a must
Safe target is 5014, stretch is 5019, 3rd stretch is 5024, 4th stretch is time based if we are in a bull trend day but you must guarantee 15 pts of profit to go for it
~5000
LF Short
You are looking for a breakdown trade here
Be careful not to take a pre break down trade
Stop behind 5005 is ideal
Safe target is 4983, stretch is 4976, 3rd stretch is 4961
~4975
LF Short
You are looking for the continued break down
If the market sees a strong daily correction, then you can scale in with a 2nd contract here and aim for the ~4960-4952 area
~4975
LF Long
You are looking for signs of a reversal or strong exhaustion signs
Stop behind 4969 is ideal
Safe target is 4998, stretch is 5007, 3rd stretch is 5016 but you must guarantee 15 pts of profit
Psychology goals for the day
0 FOMO trades - You did well yesterday with this so let's keep the momentum going
0 Emotional trades
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades - No need to rush here
Do not get greedy with trades
Abide by your trade management standard
Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules
Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods
Maximum of 3 trades a day. Only take a 3rd if you'd still be up 0.75% despite a loss
All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups.
No trades taken today. Market was nicer than yesterday but still quite low range and low-ish volume. Hopefully we see things picking up in the next couple of days.
4 trade opportunities today. I missed 1 by 1 point, I passed on two, and was shoveling snow for the other
Here's the trade I just missed an entry on.
Here's the 2 trades I consciously passed up on.
Psychology goals for the day
0 FOMO trades - You did well yesterday with this so let's keep the momentum going- Passed
0 Emotional trades- Passed
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades - No need to rush here- Passed
Do not get greedy with trades
Abide by your trade management standard
Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods- Passed
Maximum of 3 trades a day. Only take a 3rd if you'd still be up 0.75% despite a loss- Passed
All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups.
Do not look at P&L- Passed
No trading while the market is flat- Passed
One thing I struggle with when I go a couple of days without taking a trade is that I start to get impatient and I force trades. That's something I will put a strong emphasis on tomorrow, so that it doesn't happen.
See you tomorrow!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
It's boring and it doesn't leave that much room for someone like me to enter the market
The market will go through periods like this though, and the only you can do is trade well
Yesterday we saw more volatility than we had seen for a while, so that is a good sign
We saw a slight turnaround at ~5050, first point of reference as a resistance area
Only news is the EIA petroleum report. I don't notice big moves around this in the NQ but with nothing else to watch, we might see something
We are still above 14 day VA as well as 14 day VPOC
ESRX up 1.3% pre open
C down 1% pre open
Scenarios
Open up bull to the 50 area, and we reverse from it for the rest of the day or until we hit ~5010, we then range between these 2 points
Open up slightly bear until ~5025 area, then move up to ~5050 and pullback a bit, but continue creeping bull trend
Open up slightly bull but won't break ON high of ~5040, we then move bear until we find a strong support zone at either 5010 or 5000, we continue the bull rally
Balance between ON high and ON low and then break out of balance strongly one way, trend that way for the rest of the day
Setups I'll take today
~5050
LF Long
You are looking for a break out here
You want to see force pushing this, because you want to see this continue
Stop behind 5047 is a must
Safe target is 5068, but you need to be extra dilligent with your trade management here as we don't have a good reference area as to what could be the next resistance zone
It's a bit scary to buy at new all time highs so if it makes you feel very uncomfortable then don't do it
~5050
LF Short
You are looking for a reversal trade here
Stop behind 5051 is a must
Exhaustion isn't a good enough reason to enter this
Safe target is 5031, stretch is 5027
~5025
LF Long
You are looking for an absence of signs that things have changed, if that makes sense
Stop behind 5019 is ideal, but might not happen
Safe target is 50439, stretch is 5047
Don't hold higher than that unless you see strong force driving price up
~5025
LF Short
You are looking for a continued down trend here
Stop behind 5031 is ideal
Safe target is 5016, stretch is 5011
Not much in terms of potential reward here under these conditions, so be prepared to pass up on this if R/R isn't up to standard
~5010
LF Long
You are looking for strong signs of buying as we saw yesterday ~this area
Stop behind 5009 is a must
Safe target is 5024, stretch is 5034, 3rd stretch (potentially swing) is 5047 but guarantee 15 pts of profit to aim for it
~5000
LF Long
Stop behind 4995 is ideal
Safe target is 5017, stretch is 5024, 3rd stretch is to hold until ~5047 but guarantee 15 pts of profit and be prepared to hold ON
Additional goal just for today. Do not force trades or get impatient, it's okay to go even longer without taking a trade. Would you prefer to end the week with 0 trades taken and 0% or 3+ bad trades taken and -2%?
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
We had Trump speaking yesterday negative about pharma which added some volatility to the markets
5010 held very strongly on 2 occasions
After that we moved strongly up to close at all time high records again
5048.25 is new all time high
The constant higher closes and higher all time records indicate a bull rally with no brakes, but intraday we have seen some signs of a potential slowdown/pullback/reversal. We will see how corporate earnings impact this though
ON session was relatively bearish, although low range
Jobless claims came in lower than expected, but still within the consensus range
ADBE down 1.3%
Scenarios
Continue bull rally to the 50 area, establish new highs but reverse after that. Balance between 5010/5000 and 5050 for the rest of the day
Continue bull rally to the 50 area, we pull back and then move up and continue the bull rally above the 50 mark
Continue the bear move from ON until we find a strong support zone, either at 25 or 10, then continue the bull rally after that
Open up slightly bullish but don't get to the 50 area, we then move down strongly until 5010 area and potentially 5000 and even lower
Setups I'll take today
~5050
LF Long
You are looking for a break out
Stop behind 5045 is ideal
Use trade management rules to help you re: target
~5050
LF Short
Stop behind 5051 is a must
Safe target is 5033, stretch is 5026, 3rd stretch is 5018 but guarantee 18 pts of profit
~5025
LF Short
You are looking for a continued bear move here and you are looking for strength in the move
Stop behind 5030 is ideal
Safe target is 5016 so there's not a lot of room if you don't think this'll go below the 5010 mark, 2nd stretch i s 5007, 3rd stretch is 5003, 4th takes you down to at least the 4991 potentially the 4886/4883 area. But you need to guarantee 20 pts of profit
~5025
LF Long
You are looking for signs of a reversal
Stop behind 5025 is a must
Safe target is 5038, stretch is 5046, 3rd stretch is 5058 but be careful not to be greedy if the market doesn't call for it
~5010
LF Long
You are looking for strong reversal signs
Stop behind 5009 is a must
Safe target is 24, stretch is 34, 3rd stretch is 39, 4th stretch is 48 but guarantee 20 pts of profit
~5000
LF Long
You are looking for reversal signs
Stop behind 4995 is ideal
Safe target is 5014, stretch us 5024, 3rd stretch is 5038 but guarantee 15 pts of profit
~5000
LF Short
Stop behind 5005 is ideal
Safe target is 4986, stretch is 4982, 3rd stretch is 4976 but be careful not to get greedy
I've taken 2 trades so far but I'm feeling a bit angry and not in the right state of mind to trade. The first trade I took tilted me and one of my silver risk management rules is to walk away when I feel like this.
Here's the trade that tilted me
This made me mad.
2nd trade I've taken this year and I am starting to get impatient for a W. Being mostly right but wrong enough that you are no longer in a trade when it goes your way sucks. And it sucks even more when you've barely taken any trades.
Now I try to calm myself down and look to see if there's still an opportunity either as a reversal or as continuation.
There's mixed signals but they lean more towards the bear move continuing for 15-25 more pts, enough for me to get a good trade in.
Again I didn't get the best entry here.
Unfortunately I get stopped out.
I still think the market will move down to be honest, but my entry point didn't allow me to have my risk behind 5005 or else the R/R would be bad.
Oh well.
As I finish writing this I realized that I actually can't take a 3rd trade. Because right now I'm sitting about 1 pt in the negative. I can only take a 3rd trade if losing it would still leave me up 0.75% and that's not the case.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
