Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Today was an incredibly slow and choppy day.
There were only 2 trades I should have made today. Buy the low of day in open and sell the rally. Unfortunately overtraded a little bit...
Anyways, I wanna look at intermarket since the tape has been very strange today. I expected a stronger rally after the low in open, but tape just drifted lower and the strong divergence between NQ and TF is something to note.
Nothing much has changed except the Dow on the top end. On the naked charts, the Dow closed under 2 resistance trendlines as well.....
Keep eyes on Nikkei and the Russell 2000 for clues.
Oil:Bearish with confirmation from XOM and CVX lower highs. Nasdaq: No plans of shorting whatsoever.
Only notable thing was bear confirmation in double intermarket and naked charts on the Nikkei. The USD/JPY has been confirming this shift as well. CIS, one of Japan's best traders had stuck with his bearish play even when Nikkei were at lows on an intraday time frame and we go the first move lower tonight. For me rallies are now selling opportunities at least until something changes. While equity indexes in the U.S. look like they are going to the moon...pay attention to whats going around the world...China also got a move lower tonight as well which we have been calling for a few months.
The Dow on the intermarket has changed from bear to bull! On the naked chart, it has also hit the bottom range of a channel(bull flag). Keep an eye on Nikkei tonight!! Will be updating this again today(watching football atm sorry!)
Intermarket Analysis:
Sp500: Bearish
DJI: Back to bear
NDX: Bullish
COMP: Bullish
Russell 2000: Bull
Nikkei 225:Bear(Currently at very important level higher low area on naked charts...however usd/jpy made a new low!)
One thing I learned from today's pop was that I should trust the intermarket reversed more as it has been consistent with signals vs the regular intermarket.
Russell 2000 and Nikkei 225 still lagging the other indexes. Will get some clarity hopefully on Monday when BOJ announces their stance. On a side note take a look at the chart of ZB. Weekly support coming into play?
Monthly reason for selloff since summer last year
Weekly support 3 confluences....200MA, trendline support, and higher low.
Unfortunately with the data I have on PRT, I am limited with my analysis.(I would love to go longer back in history) Took the bottom range of 1987 to 92 low and connected it to the plaza accord top and it is something interesting to me, since there has been a clear reaction since then.
So here goes my case, let's say this trendline resistance is a valid resistance area.....
Let's just theorize..then that would mean gold, oil, and commodities would continue it's longer term uptrend....which makes a lot of macro sense.....usd/jpy would also continue with its longer term downtrend as well as Nikkei's deflationary play....and bonds would continue to rally which would decrease yields and so far bonds have still held weekly support noted from my prior post(HOWEVER, it seems we are at a major top since July of last year).
However on a shorter time frame U.S. dollar has held key support(1/25) and rallied quite strongly. The intermarket trend remains bullish equities and bearish bonds. While we have made a higher low......we still haven't made a higher high to get us out of the downtrend since hitting the top of the channel.....
So here is where we theorize.... A) The parallel trendline is very important and is the first start of a major decline in the U.S. dollar which is contrary to what has been the trend for a long time....This would be bullish for gold, commodities, oil, bearish somewhat for Nikkei, usd/jpy, etc.
B) The higher low is valid and dollar attempts to rally at least to make a lower high on a 4 hour chart....This would be bearish for gold, bonds, oil, commodities...etc.... Nikkei, usd/jpy etc
I'm also beginning to think airlines are slightly overdone and oil has been holding up fairly well....anyways keep an eye on this macro trend........
Maybe when intermarket analysis tells me that equity/bond relationship is done, then I will take that reversal macro trade....For now let's stay with the trend
What an interesting time to be a macro trader. Dollar yesterday pierced below the December lows....which heavily weakened the case for the dollar rally to continue. This is aligned with usd/jpy which has made a lower low and a lower high all while Nikkei is weakening....... enough theory, time for facts:
