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Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: PB after successful BO of major TR. Bull channel. We have either a H2 PB or TR. MM target at 2460 on weekly chart.
120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel and TL break. Friday bear trend missed the bull spike low from June 1st by 3 points so bulls may still be strong or we may test that target in the near future.
30 min. chart (ETH): L2 PB, wege top, TR
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high above yesterdays range in a bull channel on relative low volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Reasons for taking the trade:
- L2 PB after Orev at resistance
- 2nd leg expected
- LH after Wedge top on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: OK entry plan. Better managemnet would have been to exit above the bull reversal bar at LoD and take some profit and then reenter on a bear signal bar later if premises still were valid.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- DT bear flag
- failed BO
- LH after Wedge top on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: OK entry plan.
Hindsight Thoughts
My bias was slightly short since a MM down after Fridays big bear spike seemed possible. A close of the small bull opening gap seemed reasonable. But it turned out to be a TR day with a weak bull channel.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bull channel. New BO attempt at ATH. MM target at 2460 on weekly chart.
120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. DT at ATH. Friday bear trend missed the bull spike low from June 1st by 3 points so bulls may still be strong or we may test that target in the near future.
30 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel and high of TR. DT at ATH. Possible move down before FOMC news release.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high above yesterdays range in a bull channel up to ATH on relative normal volume.
Pre-Session (60 min): New high. Bull BO + FT at resistance.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- PB after first strong BO, so AIS and 2nd leg expected.
- PB to S/R
- signal bar (bear reversal bar)
Comment: OK entry plan. By misstake I first entered a long order instead of a short and earned 1 tick before I exited :-). The 6 point target to the 60 min EMA may have been to wide for a TR day. The 4 point MM target of the first leg would have been more likely.
News Before opening:
Jobless Claims (positive)
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (positive)
After opening:
GMT +1: 15:15 / EST: 09:15 AM (Industrial Production)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: down
Bonds: down
Sentiment is up
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Flag in Bull channel. Possible new LL today to form a H2 before an new BO attempt of ATH. MM target at 2460 on weekly chart.
120 min. chart (ETH): TL break and DB (with Mon June 9th) in bull channel. So possible DB bull flag, but important target below at 2408,50.
30 min. chart (ETH): Low of TR at VWAP - 2SD, so oversold.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new low below yesterdays range on relative very high volume.
Pre-Session (60 min): Possible bear flag. L2.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Wedge Top at HoD
- Resistance, VWAP + 2 SD
- TICK diveregence
- 30 min ETH wedge bear flag
- 60 min EMA20 test on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: Not OK entry. There were several strong reason for this trades so I entered on a limit order so there would be room for a SL above next resistance level a ADR high. The misstake here was to enter after consecutive bull BO bars. Momentum was to strong and I should have waited for a 2nd entry.
_ Re-entry, so same as trade 3
- TICK divergence
- strong signal bar (2 bar reversal)
Hindsight Thoughts
Today was a disaster when I look at the result since I reached the maximum of three losing trades (and 1 BE). But I did stick to my rules for 3 trades out of 4.. In hindsight I can see that it was my short bias that made me trade counter trend all day. It was a tricky day since it was a reversal day, but I did predict the scenario of a reversal up in my preparation and the sentiment was also up. I think my main misstake today was, since I missed the long entry at the LoD, that I did hope for a short reversal so much that I couldn't change my bias.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Same as above
- Possible stop run above S/R-level
Comment: Not OK entry. I thought that PB can't go higher now so I re-entered on a limit order on the same bar that hit my previous stop. That was a big misstake since AI had turned long at this point. This bad entry decison was likely affected by my disappointment beacuse of my prior losing trades.
Hindsight Thought
Another bad day with 3 losing trades and (1 BE trade). Unlike yesterday my problem today was mainly lack of discipline. That must stop immediately.
Hindsight Thoughts
I have started to read the price action more carefully, especially the Always In direction (AI). The only trade I considered today was the H2 PB to VWAP at 17.30 GMT + 1 (10.30 CT) since AI was lilkely still long. But this was a strong bear revesal bar with FT on the 30 min ETH chart, so I passed.
