https://imgur.com/a/jRubHIK

Be ______ when others are fearful

VX seems like a multiplier, in that the previous fractals remain but another layer is added on

the time effect is constant, so the original component is now accelerated

you are dealing with a larger effective amplitude

and the requirement for faster execution time

if someone is unable to adapt to becoming faster

these become large swings instead of tight scalps

right direction, but imprecise entry, gotta be nimble

//

covid links

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0452_article

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463?searchresult=1

the claim - the newer strain is more virulent, aggressive and more symptomatic but also more likely to be quarantined

the original strain, being weaker and less harmful under the current controls is more likely to pass under the radar, but there is less overall harm done

so the caveat hinges on the effectiveness of the quarantine to mitigate the spread of the more lethal strain

the spike protein is the same, so vaccine dev would still rely on a constant antigen

if one could reverse virulence further but still maintain a decent rate of infection, an active, but non-lethal strain would aid in developing an immune response against any COVID in this class with varying degrees of lethality

the risk would be in producing a novel, lethal strain with a mutated spike protein

the twisted view would be, that under the radar, from a bio-weapons perspective, one would first introduce the non-lethal version to protected population(s) and with delay, then release the lethal version to target population(s)

the question here is.. what is the true COVID mutation rate, the smoking gun.. testing for presence of COVID antibodies in the unexposed..

something that discounts this is a patient who was infected with both strains..

last link, spike protein also a source of virulence, but mutations limited so antibodies can still work against

https://newsroom.uw.edu/news/covid-19-coronavirus-spike-holds-infectivity-details

//

a possible bottoming process, discounted

continuing with CL drop, actually in multi year DT, resolving which is relief, because energy leading means a resolution and later strength

//

but back to COVID stuff

recent released paper on mutation

Although we found only 4% variability in genomic nucleotides between SARS-CoV-2 and a bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV; RaTG13), the difference at neutral sites was
17%, suggesting the divergence between the two viruses is much larger than previously estimated

vigilance is needed on the severe acute version for sure, but really not every COVID case here is severely acute

link showing global strain different from Wuhan

Wuhan cases winding down

//

AUD/JPY down most, USD/CAD up, EUR/USD up a bit

CL shock on the tail of COVID

a presser to find the pain point at which easing is activated, now searching

big whiff on BTC

limits

feels like forced liquidation, GC, BTC, CL

dunno, if there's no nrg, no btc

//

AM open not liquid

PM outlier outside VAL in DT

VPOC so far above heh

took a risk because looked cheap

did a 50%RT earlier from the whole move

maybe another 50 sub-RT for this PB

this is actually weekly S2, now R

hit some MAs, not going to wait through this PB

patterns looks to target fib ext, which is weekly VPOC

this establishes LL, so needs HH next to validate

gonna leave it to the PM and nighttime hopefuls to push us through

only thing that bothers me is that the second limit down was an artificial support

and might need to be tested, hit some kind of developing resistance

guess i have to keep in mind that the area is not a line, but a supply zone

this is in part due to the speed of the tape, so much variance

flows went slightly positive, last hour is absolutely watch only, closing out the DOM

you want to enjoy the artistry as they paint the tape here, no whining

all these MAs converging, in an attempt to convince, who knows

starting to cringe at words like repo, cds, gamma

trying to eat the supply, but stuffed

tape became quite thin again, volume lower than initial push

crowd might be SOH, waiting for PPT relief

still a wierd gap above, might blast to weekly S2

think this was the level prior to initial circuit breaker in ext hours

so sellers were above this possibly, guess limit events can seed levels

seems like last chance gulch here

sometimes the 50RT forms before the last leg

would be case for a flag to then test the lows or fill the area below

maybe weekly VPOC will eventually move down there and create structure

looking more LT, limit breaker at top end of mid-2019 area dunno

tough to stop the continuation from a large move

//

right now strat is wait for safety, get in low end when ok, exit is wobbly hard to hold

high vol, not ideal for mid-entry scalping, or late-stage / get caught bag-holding

ouch, couldn't get any higher, the world is now a few trillion poorer, poof just like that

distance between P and S will be wider

dang, rooting for a stick save rn to avoid further DT, might have to get to P, also to allow buy in lower

feels like spurts hidden within, flows neutralish, parties SOH

breakers imminent possibility, but S and range low has to bust

GC is interesting too, just watching tape hit lows

attempt to delay vixxplosion ongoing

gotta print up more margin

there is a disturbance in the force, consolidation, hovering

limit up serves to cap upside, seems like an instant replay, rewind now

seems like a new era with vol loosened up

this up-side crash is like a mirror of the down-side financial crash

with stronger up-spikes, the last being HH

//

rollover, ES still holds liquidity, even MES

adjustment to higher, larger range, but in a faster TF

quick moves do not feel deliberate or tested, like a flash crash in slow motion

thin profiles above were a pointer, but the floors are still too thin

looking back more LT, not out of the woods yet, the drop friday did damage, however the DT was pulled out by the ON push, which setup another prop job at close

there is some CN data sunday, but this may all be a play at the FOMC, building expectations

the anticipation of any rate cut news triggers these huge spikes, which are immediately sold

as if buy the rumor, sell the news were on steroids in the backdrop of a slew of negative events

with COVID slamming atop any patchwork easing, the difficulty of finding a supportive policy

is really dependent on lessening uncertainty, what exactly could the FED do here to reassure

in concert with effective global containment of an outlier, think BOJ and the tsunami crisis but bigger

Fukushima took a year to resolve during a fragile era, post recovery, after a systemic financial crisis

in the face of stabilizing efforts, in the backdrop of a more stable financial system

markets may be more willing to look forward and discount the pandemic

not as fast as the 2018 V bottom, the damage here is bigger but there is a possibility for EOY recovery

the further away from china, there is a supply lag, china is already recovering, incoming data might reflect this

in some ways this is a blessing in disguise, as the frothiness was unsustainable, an elevator down

the strength and rate of the stairs back up will be a tell to the real foundation and provide growth targets

energy sector is a large drag on the index, subtracting the sector might actually show a more positive picture

as energy has been in a DT for quite a while since BOJ busted the yen and commodities slammed with a strong DXY

other sectors like consumer staples with the hoarding are still off, similar to discretionary

unlike other sectors, crude has not stemmed the bleeding yet, pending SPR buying and OPEC drama resolution

this is neat, somehow 50%

//

finally going to add simply, that condition is way OS, has to bounce, perhaps has already begun, the bounce would transform conditions into a possible v-turn, removing last week's tantrum, this would actually re-position as a 50% retrace, coupled with positive divergence would transform into the initiation of a strong wave that pushes through monthly range into Q1 territory, basically a rewind reversal

the options volume has not had precise moments to catch up, so the tailing event would re-form proper liquidity, again the psychology would be on a fear mongering basis, seeing the other side beyond the crowded hoarding is probably for the best

during the lows, there were sizeable bids at the bottom in the overnight, at the time, really thought they were spoofed, but if they were actually filled orders and VX has cleared the squeeze, then vol sellers might return alongside anticipation of stimulus, etc., perhaps put sellers wanting to buy in lower if possible

think a slow-motion flash crash over the week, a spring clearance event, with the current events heavy enough to provide weight for decent entries

you can also think of this as a discounted scenario of the on-going trade dispute, and with the downside priced in as worst-case thanks to an outlier covid event, one can build upon the potential upside from this basis point, H2 2019 was pretty extended honestly considering the dampening from trade-related issues

and energy is hitting lows prematurely, which is deeply discounting future events, so LT positioning is slowly realizing some value here, some may be waiting for the actual tech signs to avoid being too early

pundits might have motives to push prices down further, but consider the demand zone, FTSE and DAX, they are even providing images for mean-reversion strats, they are almost yelling at you, past the fear

for example, in previous flash crashes, the price drop in the half-hour did not immediately trigger a recessionary lean, a reflection of a few days is an impression, the actual YTD, monthlies, quarter will paint a clearer picture of this reflexive sentiment, again this was a very thin window, reactionary, undigested

the stopped might seek re-buy ins, holders might seek better value, spiked hedges might be letting go, the tides can shift, early-mid-late participants in turn, and VX highs as divergence vs indexes is also worth considering

the eurodollar issue that haunted 2008 can be acknowledged and avoided by providing liquidity, they are packaging all this info for you with a negative spin, but is it really, don't be a gartman muppet, think of the banking moral hazard forcing the fed's hand, pressuring hedgies, indirect retaliation for volcker rule limitations

this kind of technical drop has actually primed the pump, orchestrated or not, you decide, OFC the trend if your friend, but these are range lows and PB would provide a better op, not sure about the wave dev or how this will form but things to consider

if this is really an all in bluff, ppl got tuliped on tp and sanitizer

the seeming panic, a pandemic label to slow down the spread is a pretty useful strategy

the characteristic of the pullback will determine the perception of the overall frothiness, or late stage strength

even this, whether the depleted wealth of the few affects the many, trickle down much? passing the buck, or does it all stop here

watching outbreak, interesting how E1101 was antidote for developed bio weapon

searching around, high strength wipes like caviwipes and sporicidin are available still, min lead time 1 week

toilet paper alternatives like tissue and wet wipes still around, connections to med/lab might be useful

//

actually just noticed something on the late day spike, with high vol, entries need to be very selective, the spike did not satisfy all conditions, so the uptick has to be taken with a grain of salt, the close shifted a bit so that is a plus

throughout the week most of the hard moves down happened in extended hours, there are some down moves during regular hours but they are not as convincing

though fewer, the up moves also occur outside of regular hours, those during the regular time frame are less convincing

the last spike however, looked more similar to global moves, with a large volume spike at close pushing flows positive

this might be the initial sign, coupled with a huge positive MOC

altogether, this suggests more of a global issue vs domestic, euro-dollar funding, currency stress, more of a shockwave

while domestically, price holds the range but still whipsaws, think grabbing hold of a slippery fish that has ventured outside of regular hours, is contained but once again escapes in the overnight

this sort of low volume breakout profile has layered patches of structure, as energy has been released throughout, certain levels are now defining more confined states, if this is true, vol should diminish, perhaps consolidation

that is, if this carp can be seized not only during the day but also contained overnight, carpe noctum if you will via systematic calming, re-stabilization

that cage might be the return to normalcy brought on by options/MMs, as suggested here

someone has to tame the beast as the MMs are not stepping in, one blew up on short vol earlier in the month, this feels more like a titration, offering the minimal support necessary to contain the major issue

from the other side, knowing that the FOMC is this week, players may be forcing their hand to maximize the amount of stimulus offered, again moral hazard

barry is calling this a side-effect of passive investing or a CTA, buy above X level and close below Y level, sell below Z level causing a feedback loop as price capitulates, so then, when do these CTAs close their shorts?

keep in mind that CTAs may have triggered the H2 19 buying spree, but as algos, they did flip long without emotion, guess we watch nomura for more on these flows, follow the leader, even CTAs are lagging on sells

for all we know some of the so-called CTAs, could be a subset located at 33 liberty, one should be more concerned with an electronic version of covid

//

POMO, looks like dollar weakness, would also help swaps, the floodgates are opening hopefully

now comes the reason for the pump, to halt on limit down, standby

some good points, cuts already prior to FOMC event, and cleanest dirty shirt status might actually strengthen DXY

aside from technicals down, flows kinda positive for some reason, offers stacked on the DOM

correction, FOMC event has been shifted forward, is the current event, will wait for confirmation

guess in the overnight, one way to stabilize is to just close off, ZN bid, but still is not bid enough, something have to catch up or give

some CN data later, was also neg, interesting how HSI is saving some face in the DT, more damage control here for some reason

this round of fed titration seems more like a sledgehammer, better overshoot than under rn

BOJ moved their event up to Monday mid-day, concerted CB easings, market supportive moves

this is almost like currency catch-up moves, for some time weak against USD

all except for JPY, which is the second fork of the AUD/JPY, if both ease, the carry trades would be back on

USD/JPY has been suffocated for some time, EUR/AUD is another possibility, even just AUD/USD with nil DXY rates

commodities would be pushed lower, keeping inflation in check, so this may be part of the concerted move

would explain ZN, GC going lower, with this anticipation, some kind of puzzle ongoing innit, 6S is interesting too

//

bond-index correlation is still outta wack, they have to be in sympatico instead of 180 for this to work

seeing bids, still early, news ~ lunch hour

sighs of relief probably, damage control

this one is not a squeeze, recovery

//

super LT view, imagine this area as a 50%

should allow accumulation / hovering if true

dip seems want to slip instead of rip

and chip away at the blips

but ppl putting in their targets

starting to get mixed signals on the DT, hidden strength, HL

couldn't make it, flows turned neg, test the HL / non-direction, waiting on health reports

new VX highs, pressing lower, still room for range bottom, and big buys in the low range, flows shifted positive

repo issues, swaps low, the situation is still not, even almost, maybe a little contained with this new LL

but for a long termer, 2Ks is a better buy than in the 3Ks for sure

cash is going to wake and realize they are already in the low 2Ks and do a no-brainer add

but where does CL end up, possible leader / tell, looking for the DB to form

//

just staring at the VX in the longest TF possible, well behaved upward press

this blew out of bounds, if the turn starts to load, energy fading, will revert