Much ado about nothing.



This type of behavior makes me think of a seismic shift, a fault line where one side is displaced.

After the drop, price acted as though nothing had happened. So if the economic news was bad enough to cause the floor to fall out under price... did it 5 minutes later suddenly no longer matter?

If I were a Master of the Universe and building a position large enough that it would take several weeks to establish, and if I could turn my bots loose and spam market sell orders with such rapidity that the order book would be overwhelmed and force the market down 100 points and then accumulate, accumulate, accumulate. Why would I not do that?

On the 5 min chart the drop was just, only, nothing else but the 7:35 bar (Chicago) on 69,960 contracts. Over the next hour price was essentially flat and 183,840 contracts changed hands.

The 8:35 candle opened 3 ticks above the 7:35 bar's close (remember the 60 Min Cycle?) and pushed up on 65,384 contracts. The next bar...up on 58,248 contracts. The next was was an inside bar with 42,268 contracts followed by an up bar with 51,285.

If the major market players are now net long, only with the expectation of higher prices can they justify the risk they have taken on.

Is that what this is? I have no idea.

What I do know is that the Higher the Time Frame of a Cycle, the longer it takes to turn, the greater the amount of volume that has to change hands so that the other side now has a vested interest in price moving in a new direction, and the greater will be the volatility as these games are played out.

glennts 

Time for another run at the Monthly Pivot is my guess.

A good guess but my additional expectation, if you have been following the narrative, saw this as a possible opportunity to resolve the"Monthly Pivot" situation to the upside. There are still two weeks left in this candle and a lot can happen. Still recognizing this activity as the volatility associated with the making of a Multi-Year Cycle Bottom and until 3639 gets taken out in a meaningful way, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

The concept of a Dominant Cycle being constructed out of Minor Cycle rotations has been discussed. That a 4 bar pattern on the 360 Min time frame is typically seen with the turn of the Multi-Day Cycle has been pointed out many times. For the Dominant Multi-Year Cycle the Minor / Component Cycle is the Multi-Month Cycle. In this case, the turn of the MY Cycle would likely be built out of a MM pattern. The Minor / Component of the MM Cycle is the MW Cycle.



The focus of this 1440 Min Chart is the trend and the rotation of the MW Cycle. The historical norm for this rotation going back many years is 15 days. In the last post a comment was made that it was the breaking of Minor Cycle S/R that is the cyclic event and not the duration between swing points. Because this concept is a direct link to the Science of Sine Wave Theory from which every thing that is discussed is borrowed, I planned to dig down into the math when it came time to cover it... but this at least will help you "see" what the concept is.

The Multi-Day Time Frame is the Minor / Component of the MW Cycle. On this chart Green represents things MW and Blue things MD. The Dominant Cycle determines the Trend of the Minor Cycle. The dotted Blue line represents the Trend of the MD Cycle and when that ma turns it reveals the MW Cycle rotation. The Multi-Week Cycle is the change of trend of the MD Cycle. Look to the left at the first bar that broke above the Blue ma. Look for the next bar that repeated that behavior... several bars were below the Blue ma and then a bar broke above that resistance. Do the same thing with the first bar that broke below the up trending support of the Blue ma. Find the next one. I often refer to this as 'breaking the back" of the Dominant Cycle.

The bar intervals between the paired events were 10 and 9 bars. This is the Multi-Week rotation...the change in behavior of the MD Cycle. Ya, but the 15 day historical norm? The rectangles represent a week. Even at a 10 and a 9 bar interval each event spanned 3 weeks. (See what I did there? )

Price is now in the second MW Cycle. The duration of the 1st MW rotation was 9 days (but 3 weeks). Look at the last candle that is today... the 10th day. As long as I can see an attempt being made to put in a Higher Time Frame Bottom I have to lean in that direction. As long as I can understand how price is behaving in a Cyclic context then I give it the benefit of doubt. If price pushes lower next week and puts in a Double Bottom with 3639 that will be in the 3rd weekly rectangle of this MW rotation. And it will involve 6 weekly rectangles including the 3639 low.... two months... a Multi-Month pattern.

As long as it holds above 3639.

The 24 Hr Cycle rotation.

( this should be easy )



60 Min bars.

Sienna is the 6 Hr time frame. White is the 24 Hr time frame.

The trend on the 6 Hr time frame is determined by the rotation of the 24 Hr Cycle.

The Sienna ma is the backbone of the 24 Hr rotation. Price broke it to the upside ...closed above it... in the 3rd bar out of the Low. Making that Low the Low of the 24 Hr Cycle.

As the Session ended price broke above everything White and in the overnight remained above everything White. The backbone of the Multi-Day Cycle has been broken. This makes the 24 Hr Low a candidate for a Multi-Day Cycle Low to be confirmed later with a Higher 24 Hr Low.

How does the trend of a ma change? Price gets on the other side of it and stays there, pumping higher values into the average as the older and lower values drop out. Resistance becomes support. The Upside of the MD rotation is characterized by 24 Hr support... the backbone of the rotation. Notice the 3rd bar in from the right. The Low of the candle is standing on the dotted white ma... the 24 Hr SMA.

The trend of the 6 Hr time frame has rolled over and is trending sideways to down. Those rectangles are 6Hr blocks....the solid horizontal is the Pivot of that time frame... resistance. Look at the same Pivot in the first block out of the Low...support.

The 24 Hr High is behind us and price is looking for the support that will put in the next 24 Hr Low. When price breaks thru valid resistance or support it typically will return to that area and test it for support or resistance. The White arrow below the Low in this chart points to yesterday's 9:30 Chicago. In a perfect world the next Low of the 24 Hr Cycle will fall into place at 9:30 today. In a perfect world.

The White rectangle blocks out the area where the test is likely to take place.

At the top of the chart is the Green Multi-Week ma. If it can break above the Blue ma that represents Multi-Day resistance... less likely but a definite maybe... then maybe this putting in of a MY bottom is drawing to a close. My preference is for a test of the earlier 3639 Low but its not my decision.

One last thing. The 3rd bar in from the right was a low of the 6Hr Session Cycle. The Component of the 24 Hr Cycle. At 2:30 in the overnight it fell into place 6 Hrs from the prior Session Cycle Low. In a perfect world, 6Hrs from this Low will be the next Session Cycle Low... that would be at 8:30 Chicago... the NY Open.

Do. You. Get. It. Now.

Good luck, Be careful.

If there is an expectation that the Session Cycle is going to roll over and make its next low @ 8:30 then it is reasonable to assume that sometime around 6:30 price will start pushing lower. On the right is a floating Volume Profile showing the volume distribution of the prior 60 Min. In the white box, the Cyan markers are the High Volume nodes of those three 5 min bars. In a two tick range the highest trading volume of the prior 60 Min took place... distribution.

>>> The 3rd bar in from the right was a low of the 6Hr Session Cycle. The Component of the 24 Hr Cycle. At 2:30 in the overnight it fell into place 6 Hrs from the prior Session Cycle Low. In a perfect world, 6Hrs from this Low will be the next Session Cycle Low... <<<



This is very Bullish...that it didn't need to correct lower to find support and once again was able put in the Session Cycle Low by simply standing on the 24 Hr ma is a demonstration of an eagerness to get long. As of this post price has broken above MD resistance mentioned above.

The 8:30 bar with its Low made early in that bar at 7:45. An extreme right translation.

( My 60 Min clock is set to the half-hour as this gives me a 60 Min candle that closes / opens with the start of NY RTH )

So now what?

This higher 24 Hr Low confirms that a MDL is in place. This means price is now searching for the resistance that will put in the next 24 Hr High and possibly the next MD Cycle High. So far this push higher has been stopped by the MW ma which is also in the area that represents Multi-Day resistance... the backside of the MW Cycle.

Ambiguity is resolved by going up in time.

Earlier was discussed the "maybe" of finishing off the base building of the MY Low. Also mentioned was price being in the 2nd MW rotation of this process. To have a good reason to believe the MY low is in price needs to turn up out of a MW Low. It needs to break MD resistance and turn that trend higher. I've mentioned my preference of wanting to see that play out next week. If price stalls out in this 3840 area then that may still happen. Otherwise, keep your eye on the Monthly Pivot. If you have been paying attention you already realize the significance that technical has in the larger story.

glennts 

I've mentioned my preference of wanting to see that play out next week. If price stalls out in this 3840 area then that may still happen.

Too early to tell...but maybe.

The backbone of the Session Cycle is the 60 Min Minor / Component Cycle. Four hours after the 7:45 Session Cycle Low it is easy to see the rolling over of this @ 6 Hr rotation.

On the upside of the Session Cycle Rotation price will find support on the 60 Min time frame. Everything Magenta represents technicals from that time frame. Dotted line is the 60 Min SMA. Dashed line is the Middle of the 60 Min Donchian Channel. The Bright Magenta is the 60 Min Pivot. On the upside of the SC rotation I will always be interested in buying tests of Hourly Support.

"Buy Support and Sell Resistance" is one of the oldest sayings in trading. The trick is in how you recognize what is Support and Resistance and then what do you do about it. I consider S/R to be different for and specific to each time frame and the Cycle rotation that is being followed.

So far this push has pulled up short of testing the Monthly Pivot.

On this 5 Min chart the H-H duration of the swings has been circled. Half-span rotations of the normal 60 Min Cycle. It has been mentioned that half-spanning is usually seen in Dominant Cycle turns as the other side emerges and starts to contest the move.

On the bottom the Cumulative Delta numbers for 8:35 and for 10:50, the high so far of this move, have been circled. As price was going up the CD was going down. Selling into this rally. This contrary observation is not conclusive but it is worth noting. The only thing that matters at this point is can price test the Monthly Pivot and what will happen once it does. If it cannot make it up there after being this close then I have to wonder if the sellers that caused the dramatic rejection of two days ago are being even more aggressive by lowering the Ask.

My day is over so it will not be my problem to puzzle through.

Good luck, Be careful..

What in general differentiates the effort being made in this thread from other futures.io threads is its "Teach Them How To Fish" emphasis.

It has been mentioned that a key concept underlying everything discussed is The Summation Principle which defines the dynamic forces behind the Dominant / Minor Cycle Relationships.

Back in early June a video I pulled out of my archives that discussed this important concept was posted to this thread.

This thread will consistently have daily views of > 125.
The Summation Principle video has had 19 views over 6 weeks.

What this suggests is that people are not interested in learning how to do this themselves but instead are just wanting to hear someone's perspective of what price may do. Which is not a negative in my view.

But there are those 19 who made an effort and this is my offer to them.

If enough of you have a Skype account and pm me with your Skype usernames, we can set up a Voice Only group chat and talk about these things in real time. I will not get you into trades but I will discuss the opportunities as they develop. This is a one time offer that will end this Monday.

If there is little interest in learning then I will curtail the effort put into teaching.

glennts 

July 15th Earlier was discussed the "maybe" of finishing off the base building of the MY Low. Also mentioned was price being in the 2nd MW rotation of this process. To have a good reason to believe the MY low is in price needs to turn up out of a MW Low. It needs to break MD resistance and turn that trend higher. I've mentioned my preference of wanting to see that play out next week. If price stalls out in this 3840 area then that may still happen. Otherwise, keep your eye on the Monthly Pivot. If you have been paying attention you already realize the significance that technical has in the larger story.

Quoting 

#96 July 12th "Consider the Left Translated / Right Translated concept. Search it if you are not exactly clear on what this is. Should this (month's) bar maintain the pattern and push higher, it will Right Translate, closing significantly higher than it opened. To keep it simple divide the bar duration into thirds. A Right Translated bar will be pushing up and close higher in the final third of its life. The end of this week is the half-way point for the July candle. If it's going to go it needs do so soon.

All of the reasoning that led to this trade and the decision to enter at these two points have been discussed numerous times in this thread.

Center of rotation.

When a moving average correctly reflects the cycle duration on that time frame it will serve as the center of rotation.



The above 10 year Weekly chart shows price being de-trended against the 3 Week ma, the same green ma as displayed on the lower time frame charts. That the Green zero line on this oscillator is the center of rotation for price swings over this extended period of time should be apparent. The magenta horizontals mark momentum extremes as price attempted to pull away from the middle. Notice the relative consistency of these moves. The large spike is the Covid low.



The above is a recent section of the earlier chart. Price is currently @ 80 points above the Zero. The magenta horizontal above that is another 80 points or @ 4005. The top horizontal is 240 points above the 3 Week ma Zero line or @ 4086.



This Monthly charts extends back to 2008 and shows price detrended against two time frames.

The upper sub-graph shows price detrended against the black 4 period ma of the price chart which is also the black 16 period ma on the earlier Weekly chart.

The lower sub-graph shows price detrended against the Cyan 12 period ma... 1 year.

Notice the momentum low of the 2008 market collapse and compare that to the Covid momentum Low and this recent momentum low.

If you can define the larger story and find your place in that story then you can have confidence taking on risk when you know the wind is at your back.



As to the post over the weekend offering real time help understanding Cycle Analysis via. Skype Voice Chat while trading.

One person responded. One. More than zero but less than two.

I don't understand why you folks come to this thread.