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Yesterday Summary:
Failed to break all time high, fell 50 points in afternoon, closed near open Overnight ranged and opening near y close
Intel Day Type: C-Down Range/Trend Day: Range breakout
Point Range: 51
Hypo's:
Expecting either a bounce off monthly vwap or continuation into a down trend day
Anther ugly morning, similar to tuesday. Was off to a great start, selling at SD1 but just exiting way to early and only getting a few ticks at a time instead of getting the big move. Up 150 then take another good short, decide to reverse my position for no good reason, then price falls through yesterdays low and I stop out, losing about 12 points. My losses are consistently way bigger than my winners, even though my win percentage is pretty high. I need to figure out a way to define my risk and profit targets more. Went on to miss a fill on another short by 1 tick (my fault). Went short on another retest and price broke through sd1 and closed above the 20 MA, so reversed positions. Decided to only take a few ticks there and price continued higher.
Good: Picked good spots to get in, recognizing trend
Bad: Got out too early of good trades.
Reversed for no good reason
Got stressed and emotional
I think that fear of losing is starting to creep in again because I don't have a defined plan on where to get out of my trades.
If I were to stay in my trades today based on my original targets I would have made 32 points on my first 3 trades of the day off of those pullbacks. My fourth would have barely missed my target and I would have reversed the trade like I did for a loss of 6 points. The long off of the reversal would have hit a target of 8 points, recovering the loss.
Overall should've netted 34 points on this huge trend day that I have been waiting for. Instead due to getting emotional and leaving good trades early and reversing into a bad trade that I held onto, I lost about 18 points on the day. Need to get this stuff corrected and start trusting myself again.
Hypo's: Off the daily chart we hit SD3 yesterday on huge volume as well as a key trendline, consolidated at the end of the day with some rebound overnight. Overall expecting a rebound day that will go no higher than 5920. Expecting a range day but can play a trend day especially to the downside.
I am a seller in the OR until proven otherwise ie a break of A-up up to 5920.
Trades:
1. Had a close below SD1 and 20 SMA, short at 5898. Anxious to get in so not a great price. Went against me for about 30 minutes. Got anxious as it approached the previous high but stuck to it. Added 5905 on another break of the 20 (as I gain confidence will be able to add sooner at SD1). Fell shortly after and took profit at ETH Vwap 5896.50. Stressful trade with too much risk. When in the OR shouldn't jump on the bandwagon immediately. Wait for a pullback to get in. If you miss the trade because price falls quickly, then you miss the trade. Move on. Not worth the risk and drawdown. +10 points
Take this trade a few days ago and I would've stopped myself out for a big loss out of fear. Proud of that improvement to today. Building good habits starts 1 trade at a time.
2. Played a quick bounce off of weekly VWAP and SD3 for 5 ticks
From here I think we end the day green but not by much.
Hypo's: Not very confident in a prediction. Can continue upward to test MVWAP again or could have a consolidation. Expecting the latter but ready for anything.
Trade 1: Close above 20 SMA within the OR. Learned from Tuesday and put my order at SD1 for a pullback. Filled and hit vwap a few minutes later. +7.5 points
Trade 2-4: Taking scalps along the way with the expectation of a range day. Long SD1, short 20 MA and Long at +SD2 on a pullback. + 3.5 points overall
End the day at +11 points off of 4 trades. Being a lot more patient combined with a better idea of whats going on with the big picture within the daily chart is helping a lot.
Hypo's:
From the Daily expecting an up day continuing the trend from the break of previous high. Sell off on the open but looking overall to the upside today.
Had a good feeling for the day off the open. Took some scalps due to the tight range. Quick pullback after making a new high showed that we were going to the downside. Had a meeting at 11 so missed some moves but overall a slow day. +$60 on the day. Looking forward to tomorrow. Either getting continuance to the upside or a pullback.
Another non decisive day on the daily. Is price consolodating and waiting for buyers to come in, or are we at a top and going to see a quick pullback below the previous all time high at 19?
After a quick 60 day study of NQ, I found that if price opens at 9:30 above VWAP, it will eventually revert and hit VWAP by 11 AM, and vice versa for opening below. This happened every time for this product. I am going to do this study tonight on other products as well.
With that in mind, I took my first trade at the open. I sold 1 at 81.50 right before the opening bell. At the open vwap was at 74, so this seemed like a solid trade. Price quickly fell then went back up against me to make a new high. I added another short at 88 because of monthly SD2 on the daily. After this price fell to vwap at 78 at 9:48. +13.50
Price plummeted here and did not want to get in the way on the buy side. Waited for some pullbacks to SD1 and took 2 scalps to bring my daily PL to +14.75. Had to leave after this so was not looking for longer duration trades.
If I were to stay at the screen, I would've been on the buy side of things with a target of VWAP after 10:45 with a break of the 20 MA. Price would've went against me and I dont know if I could've taken that heat, but if I were to trust the trade and add to the long it could've been a big one.
Happy with my trust in a new little idea that I found. Also was patient and didn't get in the way of price plummeting like a rock.
In a 90 day study, YM hit every time except 1, and that 1 time it hit within the next hour.
ES Same result.
NQ hit vwap at least once every day in 180 day study between 9 and 4 pm with majority becoming before 11. Something to keep in mind, but not a good 'strategy' to follow.
