Tricky day but rewarding.

Big gap down days, particularly after the weekend or holidays, are tricky to trade.

Since my trading style involves being in the trade from start i.e RTH open and exit only after 3 hours at EU close, I have to accept the risk of gap closure (or at-least a significant adverse excursion). I have devised a method that works for me.

First, an honest admission. My FOMO is massive. I don't mind losing but hate to miss the main trade of the day (especially when my pre-market analysis indicated that higher possibility). Hence, I am continuing my tradition of using SPY ETF for the 3 hrs trade and MES for nimble shorter timeframe trades.

Today is a good example of one such day. My data favored shorts with 55% win rate and 1.8 Profit factor. Hence I was short from open with SPY. However, I was also reasonably confident of a push by buyers to try and fill the gap. When it did happen, I wasn't panicking despite taking heat on SPY. Infact, I wanted to go against me and eventually took a stab @ 6420 short and covered it @ 6400 for a 20 points gain. Though MES went down another 20 points, I wasn't upset as my original SPY short grabbed those profits. It's a win-win situation, when it works.

Obviously, one can easily argue that I was adding to a loser and I got lucky. That's true, to some extent. However, the key element here is the anticipation of that adverse movement and a clear plan to add, based on data, at a logical location. More importantly, a safe exit plan. It's usually easy when you trade with the trend and shorting the bounce (as I explained in my previous post)

This is my SPY trade of 3 hrs hold.
1



This is my MES trade of shorter holding of approx. 30 mins.
2

My long bias didn't work out today.

However, breakeven day can feel like a victory sometimes.

Staying out of trouble on a small compressed and choppy day is a success in my book.

1

Good day is not good enough, sometimes.


Screenshot 2025-09-05 at 8
.29.12 PM



I did well in initial execution of bearish bias. I even added to my winning position but took profit a bit too early. I used daily ATR but broke my rule of holding my entry position till EU close. Being aware of 'pay days' and holding on to winners is easier said than done. Profitable trades truly test my discipline. Will try harder next time.

This thread will be inactive till mid October.

Though I will be trading, it's going to be busy with my next contract and hence I will have limited time for posting.

Good luck everyone.

Losing trades need context too.

My short bias didn't work out. It had a fake move and then quickly reversed. Once it made a new HOD, ideally I should have bailed out. However, my current trading methodology is NOT about tight stops or small profits but 3 hrs hold till EU close. I am allowed to scale in and build the size if my trade thesis appears to be working. Otherwise, I keep the loser till EU close.

Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.01.56 PM


Most of us have the tendency to blame ourself AFTER we know the outcome of the trade. I want to reminid myself here why I took the short trade in the 1st place. The main stat was 48% win and 0.7 PF for longs. Hence the odds favor Shorts.

Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.10.03 PM


Then I use 6 different parameters to see whether they agree or in conflict with the original signal. In this case, the profit factors for long were 0.9, 0.6, 0.8, 0.8, 1.0 and 0.7. Clearly, past data is bearish and hence I have ZERO regrets in taking the short. This is the best way to remind myself of the importance of the process rather than the outcome.


Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.12.19 PM


Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.13.38 PM


Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.14.03 PM


Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.14.43 PM


Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.15.10 PM


Screenshot 2025-09-12 at 12.15.44 PM





P.S. Whether I should have changed my bias once we made a reversal and considered long is a different story. I will consider that strategy in the near future but for now, I'm sticking to this one to assess it's effiacy.

Patience is a virtue.

My bias was neutral today as the past stats were very mixed.

Since we opened up with a decent gap, I decided to play the 'gap closure theme' or 'mean reversion' today.

My entry at 6729 short was picture perfect. I expected a choppy day and hence very determinted NOT to chase the price. I waited for the price to COME to me and quite happy with that. My 'wrong point' or stop loss was at ONH, just 7 pts away.

My target was Y-close at just under 6700. It's a pretty good 30 points target which makes this a 1:4 Risk reward trade. i.e. Fantastic opportunity. However, the challenge has always been the lack of patience (when the ideas was working) and the flexibility to compromise (when it wasn't). I did well on that account as well and compromised for 22 points only due to my rules i.e. EU close and not out of fear.

The only blemish of this trade is that I couldn't increase the size. I'm not going to be too harsh on myself as it was a narrow range day i.e small ATR and they are difficult to scale up. Overall, a satisfying 'one shot one kill' day.


1


P.S. I genuinely believe that every wannabe trader should review their trade locations on a naked chart, like the one above. No bells and whistles. Just the entries and exits. I do use 2 price indicators and 1 volume indicator whilst trading but eventually hoping to trade with just the price volume chart.

I'm closing this thread and opening another on in 'elite members only' section soon.

I noticed something wierd in my journal recently. Several times actually. Whilst most of the new posts have a handful of viewers at any given time, mine has hundreds!. Then, few minutues later, it becomes 0. Since all of them are 'guests' or non members, there is no engagement in the thread. Not sure what that's about. just odd.

See you all in another chapter of this humbletrader's next chapter.

COoneguy 

Thanks so much.... I currently have a subscription to Edgeful and am liking it. They seem super willing to run custom reports for the higher-end subscription level, but I am still exploring. Thanks for the tip on Tradingview and the SPY. Have a great weekend!! EDIT And I just remembered that Edgeful has some integration with Tradingview as well, although not sure of the details.

Hello are you still using Edgeful.com and have you tried their auto traders for the NQ or ES daytrading?

Thanks - Stevenxcel