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Hi everybody. Haven't posted in a while. Here's a video of today's trades. This one shows me actually commenting while I'm trading the session as opposed to my usual recap style videos. Let me know if you like this format better.
Thanks for watching and your comment. I'm not sure this one video really gives the full picture behind what I do. I really go into that in detail in the webinar I did for Futures IO called Taming the Beast. But for the most part I trade with twice the profit target as the stop loss, and I go all in and all out. I find no benefit to breaking even early and taking off contracts. I chose this style after many years of live testing, record keeping and statistics where I know what my win rate is and the mathematics required to be consistently profitable. It has taken close to 12 years to be at this point.
[B]Journey trade discretion or criteria for entry? How many positives to enter?
This is just something I do when I see a huge selloff in NQ. It becomes quite obvious by the speed of price and it also depends on having very little in the way of support below. From watching NQ exclusive for the last seven years on a variety of timeframes, I can eyeball this type of condition on my 5 range chart. So the criteria is basically the same as all my other trades..Identifying an immediate directional move, ensuring there is little to no significant support or resistance, and finding a low risk entry where my 50 tick stop is preferably behind the last swing high or low. NQ loves to retest price swings multiple times and is prone to very whipsawing, bouncy moves. No real indicator is going to help me as much as just knowing from experience it's patterns. So then the idea on the journeyman trade is to just ride out the move as long as possible until either I am satisfied with the ticks reached or the last swing high or low is taken out. Again, it is rare that I do that.
[B]Can't be wrong 2x or you wipe out the gains.
In one of my recent videos entitled "A new mindset", I address the win rate and how I stopped worrying about having a winning day or a winning week. Instead I focus on identifying those moments where I feel the market conditions are optimal and my preferred setup occurs. This means I have to, at least for a few moments have a very strong idea of the immediate direction, the right amount of momentum, not too much crazy volatility..everything must put the probabilities in my favor. Then for the most part, enter the trade and interfere as little as possible. Some days I take more trades because there are more good setups. Some days I don't trade at all if I don't like what I am seeing. But only a 50% win rate is needed to do well and I do better than that on average. So, the idea is to take all great setups and let the math play out. How many kits let figure it out with fees commission slippage
Not sure what you mean here exactly. In most of my videos, I trade two full contracts. At that small size, I see very little slippage. I have traded up to five contracts and may do that again..but at the time it was kind of stressful. I had a sort of "fight or flight" adrenaline reaction and after several months I feel it gave me something called adrenal fatigue, from all the epinephrine expenditure. At the time, I was basically using a 1:1 risk/reward ratio and it was stressful to have the high win rate required to do well. This last video, I was already up 350 ticks on the week. In fact I wasn't even going to trade live Friday because I had an appointment at 10:20 . But then I decided to do a few trades with only 1 contract which is what you see in this last video. I have been averaging the last few months well over 100 ticks a week and many weeks over 200 to 300 with this current system. That is the best I have ever done so I am very happy where I am at right now. The goal is to keep building the account, eventually work up to more contracts and do very well.
Suggest trading 2 contracts minimum and leaving a runner, with runner stop placed 2 ticks above breakeven as price moves in your favor. I trade the NQ daily with goal of 75pts average daily. I have a different method for entries and exits, which I am unable to share, since proprietary (paid too learn). When trending, runners can pay big. Range days, suggest scalping the runners and trail the stop as long as possible. I mainly trade NQ, but also ES, CL, RTY, YM and micros. I enjoy trading options on futures intraday and swinging, along with equities when waiting for setups or day done with futures contract. Stick to the method that works for you and look for one good trade at a time, that is my focus.
1) I don't see any record of the 'jprMoving Average Crossover BC' indicator in Downloads, or discussion elsewhere on the forum. Is it a custom MACD-type indicator like shown at bottom of your screenshot?
2) TrendGraber appears to consist of 3 moving averages, but I don't know which exactly...the original author (Raghee) used an EMA-34 and SMA-20, with HLC average as input instead of Last price, I think. I downloaded the 'mahTrendGraber v2' indicator from Ninjatrader's site, and am reviewing the source code now.
The background can be found on futuresio. "Ninjatrader 8" indicators. Select the "M" and scroll down til you find "Moving Average Cross Over Background Color".
This TrendGraber is the one that Lance has used. There is an upgraded version. If you have the old one, don't delete it when you download the upgraded one. I prefer the older version
I altered the indicator by making the both above bars green and both the below bars red. Both between bars yellow.
I turn the 3 channel lines transparent and use the 20ema and the 200ema instead. The TG is set to 20 Ema.
Hope this answers your question. Cheers!
ps. The red/green areas on the WaveTren are nothing more than Locked Region Highlight Y drawing tools.