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A slight shift in tactics this week. I have looked at all my markets together, holistically, attempting to form an overall position srategy that is less prone to total failure. Rather than take all trades that are "convergent", I want a mixture of "divergent" and "convergent" trades, with-trend and reversals. That way if the whole market decides to move in unison in one particular way, I am not completely steamrolled.
Just tooling around here. I should NOT have to be a good forecaster in order to make good money — just have to be a smart trader.
To summarize the overall picture -
ES is postured to the upside.
ZN is pressed up against heavy resistance, and may be ready to retrace lower. A tough read though - a breakout higher is certainly possible.
6E traded sideways the last few months after its prolonged dump. It is compressed to the upside of its range and struggling at resistance. A tough read.
6B has not held its bottoms as well as 6E, but nonetheless appears to be in a bounce. It has met resistance and may be ready to retrace.
CL consolidated this week and found strong support at 72. CL is abnormally extended and if there is a counter-trend play to take this week, it would be the short-side in CL (with caution).
GC is in a down trend and there doesn't seem much to prevent it from making another leg lower.
Based on the above abd balancing my positions, I will look for trend continuation setups in ES and GC (somewhat correlated), a breakout in ZN, a reversal in CL, a sideways/protected breakout long in 6E and a continuation short in 6B.
ES
This week's bold statement: Buy 2753.50
ZN
This week's bold statement: Buy 120'80
6E
This week's bold statemnt: Buy 1.1768
6B
This week's bold statement: Sell a break below 1.3287
CL
This week's bold statement: Sell 74.74
GC
This week's bold statement: Sell a break below 1251.3
Thanks @Silvester17. I noticed this a couple weeks ago - I was using daily bars, and on CL I had a Friday close price that was a full 100 ticks or so away from the Last price for the week. After a bit of digging I realized this is because CL's settlement is calculated several hours before the end of electronic trading. In order to get the best of both worlds, I switched my daily chart over to 1440 minutes. This way, my weekly chart will show the Friday settlement, and my 1440 shows the last price for the week. Both are important to me, so I get the best of both worlds this way. Agree with you completely regarding settlement as the official closing price.
I just noticed that FIO is having a journal competition. In honor of the competition I decided to add some extra activity here the remainder of the month. I have been secretly running an intraday sim experimental method, and so I will begin posting it here a few times a week.
I'm kind of frustrated to be in SIM with this method, but it's been very challenging for me to get into a consistent rhythm every morning with two little ones and extremely busy time of year at my job. My target is Monday / Tues / Thursday trading, so hopefully having this journaling objective will help me stick to it!
6am pacific to 7am pacific. I'm trading the opening half-hour to hour in CL and ES. That's the experiment. At the very least it keeps my trading muscles exercised while I toil away on life.
Here's my submission to the contest, a little late to the party. In addition to my usual weekly updates, this month I plan to post some intraday activity also.
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Monday 09 Jul 2018
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CL has been making lower highs the last week or so. Heading into the open it touches 74 even, and I am looking to the short side.
CL started to spike and then turned around fast the other way. I decided to jump in with half, then when it didn't pop, I entered with the other half. Took profits on half early. Considered holding that last one, but chose not to. There was a lot of down side left on the table.
ES was pressing higher and didn't show much weakness so I decided to look on the long side primarily.
After the strong open I decided to enter with half right off the bat. I never got the second lot on. I was hoping (hopium) that it was just goinig to pop higher, but resistance proved too strong. This may be considered a mistake, as it was not a good exit. BE.
After the big drop, looking at CL continuing to retrace that move. Don't like taking the counter-trend long position here, but I think it's the higher probability..
No bueno:
Son woke up 6am while I was taking this loss. No time for ES today.
-$338.56 after commish.
Today was off, and my process was off. I try to wake up before 5:30 and get in a quick 5-minute meditation every morning before doing my prep. This morning I didn't get up until 5:40 and I felt tired and anxious. I could not calm my mind. We've been trying to get my younger kid to improve his sleeping habits and he has been retaliating by not letting mama and papa sleep very well.
The problem isn't the loss today. My execution of my plan was actually correct. I was planning for up, or sideways, move. I traded in a way that would have benefited from either of those outcomes. Instead, the outcome was a down move. So I lost money. Fine. And so the question is to look back at my plan, and ask "did I miss something, and if so, why."
It's basically impossible to look back after the fact without bias and say "well, I should have done it this way." But I already know I didn't stick to my process, I rushed through my prep. I didn't take the time to look at the story of the chart. Looking back on that spike at 71.24, there was enough indication there to envision a break lower.
My goal in my pre-market prep is to lay out a vision of paths the market could take in the next hour or so, and plan my execution at the various check-points along that path. Today, my vision was narrow, because I didn't take the time, nor did I have the mental focus, to maintain it.
I am on the road next week but will do my best to continue trading and posting from my laptop. There is one process-goal I have for the week, and one mental-reminder, to keep in my head.
1. Process: 5-minute meditation before trading prep. By the end of the meditation, If you cannot relax, don't trade.
2. Mental Goal: Expand your vision.
Allllrighteeo. Weekly swing-trading update, recapping an overall decent week here. First, the trades that triggered.
ZN - Took the long side here for a continued press higher and perhaps a breakout. Sunday bought 2 at 120'080 but no real breakout. Sold Friday at 120'120 for $250.
6B - Was looking for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Shorted 2 on 7/9 at 1.3287. Closed on Friday at 1.3263 for $312.50.
6E - took the opposite side here, hedging the 6B position. Bought 1 on 7/10 at 1.1768 looking for a base to form and a move higher. Didn't happen. Sold Friday at 1.1732 for -$450. It's unusual for opposing ideas in 6B and 6E to both trigger, but here it happened and they roughly canceled each other out.
GC - sold 1 at 1251.50 looking for the trend lower to continue. The best trade of the week, closed on Friday at 1241.50 for an even $1000.
Now, the ones that got away. We got a couple doosies here..
CL - I was playing for a reversal short, but wanted to wait for one more spike. I got the spike but it fizzled 4 pennies from my resting order at 74.74. Bummer.
ES - I was looking for continuation higher but wanted to get a little dip. Dip didn't quite make it to my order and so I was left watching.
After that last week where every trade lost huge for roughly -$6000 overall (no bueno), I made some tweaks to my steelo. I'm happy with the way this week turned out with +$1112.50 before commisions. I think the mixture of entry styles (limit-ing in and stop-ing in), and trade-types -- reversals, breakouts, bounces -- is a step in the right direction. Onward we march and we'll see how it goes.
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ES
This week's bold statement: Buy a break above 2813.50
As scary as it may be, I just gotta buy it if we get into the teens here. Failed break out? Yeah, sure, maybe "most breakouts fail" (really? tell that to almost every es breakout for the last 8 years) but here it's worth the risk. Could be seyonara 2700s. Could be the beginning of the end.
ZN
This week's bold statement: Buy 120'060
Had a failed breakout last week but it held the low end of the range nicely. Same idea this week, lookin for a little dip and a breakout higher. Some fed dude is scheduled to do some gabbing in the middle of the week. Maybe that will help some.
6E
This week's bold statement: Sell 1.1784
The Friday bounce may have some legs, and this basing pattern may be the real deal, but I just think it might be to soon to really make a run up. This is my gut-shot reversal idea. We might drift higher, but 1.1800 has a good shot of holding. So if we get close, sell it.
6B
This week's bold statement: Buy 1.3187
Again, taking the opposite direction as 6E. Looking for a big-ish dip and bounce upward. I'm a little nervous about the downside risk here, so looking for it to get into the high 3100s, where 3150 area should act as some support.
CL (September contract)
This week's bold statement: Sell 72.23
CL made me a little sad last week by not filling my short. This week we try again, with downward momentum already in place, looking for a push higher and a new down-leg. But there is one thing that makes me nervous here - a springboard long off of the 69 area. We'll see.
GC
This week's bold statement: Sell a break below 1237.7
I don't see any good reason this shouldn't keep falling. So we do the same thing. Short a break down. Don't need it to get all the way down, just show us it hasn't changed its tune.
If you dig it, get over to the journal contest post and thank it, you lurkers! This is hard work! Don't think so? Try it.
CL open was slow and I ended up not taking any trades in the first 30 minutes. Although the down move was strong overnight, it started to put in a lot of overlapping, lazy action, with short pushes lower. I decided to take the opposite side of the trend as the market looked like bulls were making a play to reclaim 69.50 and touch the .70s.
Had a bit of green before it turned around and died. This trend just did not want to be fought this morning - Although I've gotten better at not making this mistake, it still happens.
Given the multi-day down trend, I could have been less aggressive buying here (or not at all). Certainly not adding the second lot, which was already near the top of the range / channel structure, or being quicker to dump it on the turn. And I could have been ready for a fail at 69.50 and flip short. All clearer in hindsight. CL took my attention away from the ES open today, which was comparatively sloppy anyway, so just the one trade, $-358.56.
If I post on Tuesday / Thursday, it will be from my laptop while traveling. I will try to make it happen.
Recap for another interesting week. My swing account was up a couple grand fantasy dollars before making a 180 on Thursday afternoon, finishing Friday down in the other direction. Some real heart-breakers, such as GC coming within 7 ticks of my resting trake-profit order, before turning around for a 200 tick reversal. The parameters of this experiment are no-touchy-during-the-week so for now I eat it and move on. Not saying I ain't noting it for future reference though. Maybe a trail or break-even stop at some point is in order.
ZN: 7/16 bought 2 at 120'065, sold 7/20 at 120'005. $-187.50
GC: 7/16 Sold 1 at 1237.70. Bought 7/20 at 1229.60, after reaching low at 1210.70. $790.00
6E: 7/16 Sold 1 at 1.1784. Bought 7/20 at 1.1775, after reaching low at 1.16225, another big heart breaker. $112.50
6B: 7/17 Bought 2 at 1.3188. Stopped out 7/17 at 1.3059. $-1612.,50
ES: 7/17 Bought 1 at 2813.50. Sold 7/20 at 2801.75. $-562.50
Net of -$1460 for the week. One thing that clearly stands out is the 6B loss. For a short time this week, both 6B and 6E trades were in profit. Then, as 6E dropped, the hedge of 6B wasn't hurting too badly and the trades were net nicely profitable. At some point though, 6B moved across my stoploss, and then 6E reversed after that hedge had been removed. Clearly not a great situation . I will think about this but one thing I may do is just force myself to pick a direction in a preferred currency, and not take any opposiing position. If I want to play both sides of the dollar, I may look instead at yen 6J to get outside Europe, although correlation of dollar crosses are all fairly strong much of the time.
US-Dollar exposure seems to be one of the main variables I need to consider as I plan out each week. Not only currencies but also GC, CL, to a certain extent will be impacted, potentially in unison.
ES: This week's bold statement: Buy 2791
I'll be honest, I really don't like this chart. We are in the depths of low participation summer abyss, and last week's candle is fairly week if the market is trying to put in a July breakout. We also have GDP coming Friday and who knows what the market will do with that. All that said, we can't deny that the path higher is still firmly in tact. With a higher low on Friday, that could be all the bears really had in them. Although a breakdown is likely, I think I have to continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls here. But not so confident to take a break-out entry this week. I will take an entry in the 2790s if we get another shake lower. I fully expect to be sitting here next week and thinking "duh, this thing was screaming break-lower-and-head-to-2755. It's too early in the year for another run at ATH." It really is. But there are other screams to be heard at the moment.
ZN: This week's bold statement. Buy 119'245
Essentially this market is moving sideways and currently at the bottom end of a recent consolidation area. This is still fairly healthy and I will buy a dip at the edge. Things can definitely get ugly to the downside if it breaks much lower.
6E: Buy 1.1740
Another turd of a chart. Bouncing around sideways. But we are getting higher lows. I like the upside. This is the kind of a trade that, if it works, would make sense to hold for several weeks.
6J: Sell .0090580
Welcome to the party, mr. yen-san. Please grab a beer. I like the spunk of your bounce here, but I expect it should encounter some negative reaction if it gets much higher.
CL: Sell 69.22
This is another chart I don't particularly like. I don't like it because I can see very good cases for both directions. I'm sticking with the current swing and taking the short side. But you can't ignore the bounce last week off key level 66. I could easily see us getting a little dip down to 67 followed by a breakout higher. My take is that any move higher is going to have to contend again with the 69.50 level, so I will lean against that for a short position in the direction of the last few week's trend.
GC: Buy 1219
That strong Friday bounce was good enough to make me think we get some follow through. But there's hopefully a little bearish energy yet to expend, putting in a dip before moving back up toward the 1250 number. This is my gut-reversal play of the week, and is against the prevailing down trend.
No break-out entries on the plate this week. Maybe I'm playing it safe. Maybe the charts just aren't looking particularly directional. Hopefully the mix I have here still gives me some positive exposure. We'll see … I will confess to no small amount of doubt. I sit here for several hours each weekend, wondering if there is any hope at all in this method, and whether I have even the slightest clue what I am doing. I will at least find out, one way or another.
Pop over to vote for me with a "thanks" in the journal contest if you haven't already. Or not. No body gonna force you.
Here's my submission to the contest, a little late to the party. In addition to my usual weekly updates, this month I plan to post some intraday activity also.
I was on holiday the past week. I had mentioned here that I was thinking of continuing trading in the mornings during that time. I learned quickly that this was not going to work for me. Vacation is a time to let disciplined schedules / routines wither away. I chose to skip the market. I also was reminded, while on break, of just how consumed my brain has become lately with the topic of trading. I am a man of many interests... but lately I find myself checking the markets and running through ideas / strategies in my head with obscene regularity. Because I've been doing this for several years, I am noticing I am retreading over the same ideas, the same problems and puzzles, again, and again, and again. Honestly, it is becoming tiresome. I have concluded that if I don't enforce some kind of separation between mind and markets, I am going to fall victim to fatigue.
I have mentioned meditation already here. I am also instituting some limits on my phone usage, trying to cap the amount of checking-in I do on active positions. I need to give my mind space to think and re-think, or risk complete burnout.
I had a fairly simple approach for CL on the open today. If we dropped toward 68.90, buy the dip. If that failed, sell the break lower. It did drop, failed to hold, continued lower, but then after touching VWAP it bounced higher. I am interested in being more dynamic with my tactics in day trading, but I am fully aware of how difficult that is to execute correctly. I tried to be more flow-y today. Rather than commit to a position all-in, I would get in, get out if it aint working. Flip if need be. Didn't work for me today.
One thing that I've noticed with my swing trading is that I have been getting a very high hit-rate when looking only at the first reaction off the entry trigger. This kind of makes sense when you think about it... I am trying to pick levels that are significant from a swing perspective. I should expect at least a brief reaction there more often than not.
But in intra-day trading, I am hamstrung by time limitations, and I am forcing myself into executions at intraday levels because I want the action. There's nothing wrong with this if you can do it well.
Not many people do it well.
But there are many ways to get to the pot o gold. I am feeling at this stage, with day-trading, that I need to inject some new life in my approach, or just walk away for a while, come back when the pastures of the mind are greening once more. I have no shame in that. I am a man of many interests. The things I can accomplish with the time I spend here, pursuing other things, are not insignificant, and must be weighed appropriately.
