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Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 6 days with both buy- and sell signal bars. Likely TTR.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. Possible 1 month broad bear channel
30 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. Possible bull wedge PB.
Comment: Not OK. Bad planning and bad execution. I deliberately tried to get in early after opening, but this entry was premature. The anticipated baer spike was actually a bear channel from the ON session and the PB was too weak. But the main misstake was the lack of resistance.
During my pre-session analysis I failed to notice the bear channel that started at the ON high and was trading on normal relative volume. Usually patterns from the ON session don't seem to be well respected, but a channel is a strong pattern and the Channel Trend Line would have provided guidence for a appropriate entry price.
Futhermore I did enter on a stop order below the Micro Wedge with 2 point SL although the signal bar was larger than 2 points. Secondly this was likely a limitorder market at the time.
Trade 2 (S/R -Rev, long): -2,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- TICK divergence at support
- HL (=2nd entry)
- 2 legs down below VWAP - 2 SD
Commnet: OK entry. This feelt like a high probabilty entry at the time. I saw that this may look like a bear channel and that there were a lot of bear bars, so I waited for a 2nd entry and entered on a limit order at resistance so that my SL would have room for a minor LL trend reversal. But it turned out to be a LL major trend reversal.
Trade 3 (PB, short): 0,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- PB at reisstance
- Retest of channel low was expected after obvious TL break
- Strong signal bar (= bear reversal bar)
Comment: OK entry. But the target appeared to be incorrect since my support level was too low.
Trade 4 (BO, short): -2,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- BO from big bear wedge PB
- LH
- Possible MM (based on bear channel during first 2,5 hours from opening)
- big BO bar
Comment: Not OK. Several misstakes:
- The most serious misstake was that I took this trade although I already had ended my trading session for the day. I came back from dinner and saw this perfect wedge pattern and couldn't resist the temptation to enter. And I guess that it also was a desire to not end the day with a loss.
- To take a BO trade late in the day is not part of my trading plan. Big moves are less likely late in the day and besides Monday and Tuesday had rather wide ranges, thus today was less likely to be another wide range day.
- I did enter on the BO since I did miss the correct entry point that would have been below the HL. The big bear BO bar (that completed the LH) was a supprise and didn't offer any opportunity to enter on a stop order below a bear signal bar. The smart traders did anticiapte this and had already placed there stop oder below the HL in case of a BO. They managed to get out BE or with a small profit. I did a FOMO misstake.
Hindsight Thoughts
This was a bad day with 2 big entry misstakes. Especially the last trade annoys me. And I also did miss two important things in my pres-session preparation, the pre-market bear channel and the resistance level around 2338.
I will take a break over Easter and not trade on Thursday. So no new posts until Monday. Happy Easter to everyone!
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: down
Bonds: neutral
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 8 days with both buy- and sell signal bars. TR.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. Possible 1 month broad bear channel. Thursday did hit MM target (based on April 4th bear spike).
30 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR.
Overnight:Overnight has tested prior session low, but has then moved higher on relative low volume after a news event. So the move up may be faded on the opening.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1 (Orev, short): -2 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Opening reversal at resistance
- Signal bar (2 bar reversal)
- The move up during ON was on low volume, so possible correction
Comment: Not OK entry.
- This was another trade that I did take although I already quit my session for the day and left the screen.
- At this point I could anticipate that the reversal at my resistance level maybe wasn't the most likely direction for the day. Price could very well continue to trade within the current tight TR into the close or there could be a MM up based on the first bull leg and the tight TR.
- My intention was to enter on a stop order below the strong bear bar (that wouldn't have been triggered) but by misstake I did enter on a market order. My biggest mistake though, was not to exit immediately.
Hindsight Thoughts
This was a difficult day. The higher TF context was TR but the 5 min price action was more like trend with consecutive trend bars and little overlap. I can't see any obvious entry that I did miss today.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 3 weeks with both buy- and sell signal bars. Yesterday was a bull reversal bar that may trigger a bull trend.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. Possible broad bear channel. Thursday did hit MM target (based on April 4th bear spike).
30 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new HH on low rel. volume, but has then moved lower.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1 (PB, long): -1,0 point
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong BO
- Strong support (Confluence of VWAP, 60 min EMA20, YD TR high =2340,5)
Trade Plan
SL: 1 point
Target (resistance): 6,75 points
RR-Ratio: 6,75
Comment: Questionable entry. High RR, strong bull momentum and PB at support, but also failed BO and strong bear opening reversal. Obvious arguments for both the bull- and bear case and thus I should have passed this entry.
Trade 2 (PB, short): -0,75 point
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong bear opening reversal + BO
- Micro DT PB to support
Comment: Not OK entry.
- When the big bull spike was reversed by the big bear spike (BUBD) I should have anticipated the TR. And thus no bull flag or bear flag in the middle of the range were high probability entries.
- I did enter on a stop order above VWAP to make sure that I didn't enter into resistance, but I did, since there was a resistance level just above VWAP.
Trade 4 (S/R-Rev. long): -2.0 point
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Support
- 2nd leg + MM-target hit
- Final Flag (FF)
Commnet: Not OK entry. The trade plan was ok, except for the premature entry on a limit order at support before any bottom formation. Bear momentum was strong and the one bar FF was obviously not sufficient. This was a FOMO misstake. I was afraid that price would just touch the support level and then reverse. But this is rarely the case when momentum is strong, the reversal usually requires a bottom formation with several bars.
Hindsight Thoughts
This was another losing day and three out of four entries were not in agreement with my trading plan. I must improve this somehow. The good thing is that I feel confident with my method and my ability to find relevant S/R-levels.
Todays misstakes Trade1: I did not properly consider the arguments for the opposite side before my entry. I do this misstake frequently and it is likely because I feel that I'm in a hurry. This has to stop. Action: From now on I will start to note the entry reasons for both sides before any entry decision is made.
Trade 3: There were several misstakes about this entry decision but the main misstake was my inability to apply my knoweledge of price action to asses the kind of day. I only saw the big BO and prepared for the directional continuation. I missed the obvious BUBD (Big Up, Big Down) pattern that usually leads to TR. And futhermore I forgot the higher TF context that was TR. A reliable trend day would have required a BO of the prior days range. Only 1 out of 5 trading days are trend days and since yesterday was a wide range day the probability for a small range day was increased. The rational would have been to expect a TR day until proven othterwise by a BO of prior days range or three or more consecutive strong BO:s. Action: From now on I will include the arguments for a TR-Day vs a Trend-Day (based on the higher TF charts) in my pre-session preparation notes. During the session I will also start to more frequently answer the questions:
- What are the arguments for a TR-Day?
- What are the arguments for a Trend-Day?
- What is required for this day to turn into a trend day?
Trade4: I didn't wait for a reliable bottom formation although this was a reversal entry with rather strong momentum. This was an unneccessary misstake and it was most likley due to the dissapointment after three losing trades. Normally I would have stopped trading after three losing trades, but since I managed to keep the losses of the first two trades small I thought I may take another last trade. This will not be repeted. My session ends after three losing trades (BE trades not included).
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 3 weeks with both buy- and sell signal bars. Yesterday was a bear inside bar. That increases the chance for a BO and a wide range day.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. Possible broad bear channel. We are close to the monthly VWAP.
30 min. chart (ETH): Bear channel or possible TR. Market has respected the bear TL during the last two weaks.
Overnight:Overnight has traded higher in a channel on low rel. volume and failed to test YD high by 2 ticks. This test was the largest overshoot off the bear TL so far.
Type of Day:
- Daily bar: inside bar = increased chance for a BO and a wide range day
- Higher TF context: Market is trading in the mid of a TR on the daily chart and the 2 month 120 min chart. Market may be in a broad bear channel since two weeks on the 30 min chart. We are at the high of the channel and the overshoot during ON may be reversed at the opening.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1 (Orev, short): -0,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Opening reversal at resistance (Monthly VWAP)
- Signal bar (2 bar reversal)
- TCL overshoot of bull cahnnel from ON
- Possible high of day
Comment: OK entry, but I did exit when the 2 bar reversal was followed by a weak bull revesal bar. Somewhat cautious decision but OK since there were strong bull arguments (ON bull channel may continue, support level right below, possible BO PB H1 or H2)
Trade 2 (BoPb, short): +2,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- PB to resistance (+ VWAP) after strong bear leg
- Signal bar (strong bear reversal bar)
- MTR of ON bull channel (TCL overshoot + TL break + LH at resistance)
Trade Plan
SL: 2 points
Target (MM target of first bear leg): 5 points
RR-Ratio: 2,5
Comment: OK entry. I did anticipate this trade and waited paitently for it. I noticed the strong bear move and decided to increase my target to the next support level. Unfortunately I did also narrow my SL 1 tick to much and was stopped out on the PB.
Hindsight Thoughts
No entry misstakes at all today, feels lika a small piece of progress. My new routine to note entry arguments for both directions before I enter a trade makes me feel much more confident about my entry decisions.
Today was a bear trend day but the channel was weak and difficult to forsee until late in the day. Although it was triggered by a MTR of the ON bull channel, the relative volume was low and it looked as if the market would reverse at any support level. This was more likely a bear leg in a higher TF TR than a bear trend.
