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Context Log:
Bull opening gap. Gap close. Big bear leg that failed to test the target at 2342.75 (the low of 21st feb. big bull spike) by 1 tick (= strong bulls). Bull leg up and then sideway above VWAP.
Trade 1 (long): - 2 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Opening Reversal
- My inital bias was a bull trend day
- Opening gap closed and at HoYD (=possible support)
- Micro DB
- Possible LoD
Comment: I still think this entry seemes ok, but apparently it was a trap. What did I miss?
Trade 2 (short): -1,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong bear BO (=AIS)
- Possible MM after PB
- Obvious target below was low of 21st feb. big bull spike.
Trade Plan:
SL (above PB): 2,25 point
Target (low of 21st feb. big bull spike): 5.25 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 2,3
Comment: I was at this point still not sure weather this was a bottom after a two legged bull move or if it would make a MM down. But the MM looked more likely to me. I entered on a stop order below the PB and exited to early because I saw a mico DB that turned out to be LH. Bad SL management.
Trade 3 (short): 0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- same as above. I reentered when I saw the BO.
Trade Plan:
SL: 2,0 point
Target (low of 21st feb. big bull spike): 4.25 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 2
Comment: I moved my SL to BE when the BO reached 3 points (1,5 R) and got stopped out. Obviously I moved my SL to early. The market missed the target by 1 tick.
Hindsight thougths:
The trade off between price risk and information risk became very obvious for me today durimg trade 2 and 3. I waited for the BO to start and took a bigger risk. A better option may have been to enter earlier on a limit order at the top of the PB with a tight SL? That would mean a lower probabaility and a bigger reward-risk.
I did miss the reversal at LoD because I waited for price to hit the target at 2342.75 (the low of 21st feb. big bull spike). I was rather convinced there would be some kind of LL before price went up, but I was wrong and missed a good move. It turned out that bulls were strong. The increasing relative volume was a sign that bull were scaling in. What would have been the right way to handle this trade? Any thoughts?
/P
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I don't think it's a good idea to trade breakouts unless you see unusual momentum, such as you would find with a news event. You need extra momentum to take a market like ES to a new high or low after its already made most of the range for the day especially with the tight stops you are using as you are getting in too late. Look at the previous few days and you can get a reasonable idea what the range will be for the day.
I suggest looking for retracements within a trend. In this regard your first trade was good, because at that point it was either going to hit a new high or fail. The mistake maybe was not entering a reverse position on the stop, but just because you lost money doesn't make it a bad trade.
Thanks for your objective feedback, @Northernlimit. It means a lot to me.
Since your previous post I have decided to take less risk and to focus more on reward-risk. I also try to improve SL management. An idea is to accept that price hits my entry price once, after price has moved 1 R in my direction before I move my SL to BE.
I will be more careful before taking BO trades. I will only consider a BO trade if it's the first leg in a possible move (BO bar + follow through) and make sure there is sufficient remaining daily range of at leaast 2R.
Higher TF charts Daily chart: YD was a TR day and outside day. We are still high in the major trend channel, at the major TCL.
60 min. chart: Sideways correction continues after the strong bull channel. I can see a smaller upper TR and lower TR.
Overnight has made a new low and hit the target at 2342.75 (the low of 21st feb. big bull spike). Price is testing the low of the upper TR. Today will open with a bear gap.
S/R
Support:
2351.50 (Low of upper TR + High of prev. Week)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH) + Low of lower TR)
Resistance:
2367,25 (ATH)
2386,25 (Target on weekly chart)
Inital bias:
Sideways correction after strong bulltrend continues. Overnight has tested an important target and we are at the low of the upper TR. My inital bias is that we will have a TR day and that price will go up.
Context Log:
Small bear opening gap at bottom of lower TR (60 min ETH). Two consecutive failed bull BO, strong bear reversal bar and PB to VWAP. Sideways above VWAP. Last hour Bull BO up to remaning ADR.
No trades today.
Hindsight Thoughts
I had to leave the screen for a couple of minutes and missed my setup at GMT + 1: 17.15 / EST: 11.15 AM. This was a good TR reversal setup. A HH at HoD after to weak legs up . I did set my alarm at HoD but when I entered the order, price had already reversed more than 1 point and the Reward-Risk-Ratio was < 2.
The PB at GMT + 1: 16.35 / EST: 10.35 AM, looked tempting. It was a small DB at VWAP after two legs up, but I couldn't tell if it was strong enough. This trade would have been in the major trend direction and the HL was a sign of strength, but from the bear perspective this was a LH after a big bear reversal bar. The required inital risk would have been 2.5 points, so in hindsight I wouln't have reached my target until the last hour.
Higher TF charts Daily chart: Friday was a TR day. We are still high in the major trend channel, at the major TCL.
60 min. chart: Sideways correction continues after the strong bull channel. I can see a smaller upper TR and a lower TR.
Overninight has made a new ATH and tested the high of the upper TR on relative high volume.
S/R
Support:
2351.50 (Low of upper TR + LoYD)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH + Low of lower TR)
Resistance:
2370,00 (ON high + ATH)
2386,25 (Target on weekly chart)
Inital bias:
Sideways correction after strong bulltrend continues. Overnight has made a new ATH and we are at the high of the upper TR. My inital bias is that we will have a TR day and that price will test ATH and then either make a new bull BO or trade lower in the upper TR.
Context Log
TR day. Opening reversal, two leggs up to VWAP + 2 SD, PB to VWAP, tight channel above ON high and new ATH.
Trade 1 (long): + 4,75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Trade in major trend direction and fridays last hour bull spike was strong
- PB (L2) to VWAP (= support) after two leggs up
- Targets above: ON High and MM of friday last hour bull spike
- Inital bias was test of ON high before any big move
Comment: I belive this was an ok entry. The bear perspective was a three-push-pattern (wedge top) but it didn't look strong. Two of the the three consecutive bear bars had tails at the low that indicated that buyers were buying below.
Hindsight Thoughts
I considered buying the opening reversal, bar no 4. It was a L2 PB after fridays strong bull spike and just at the ADN (average daily noise band). But the bear BO looked strong and I saw no obvious support level. Besides VWAP of friday and 60 min EMA20 were possible targets.
Sentiment is neutral or slightly down (due to Bonds)
Higher TF charts Daily chart: YD was a TR day and a new ATH. We are still high in the major trend channel, and continue to trade around the major TCL.
60 min. chart (ETH): Sideways correction continues after the strong bull channel. I can see a smaller upper TR and a lower TR. We are in the upper zone of the upper TR. We have a DT at ATH (ON high and RTH high).
Overninight Sideways within YD range on relative low volume.
S/R
Support:
2351.50 (Low of upper TR)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH + Low of lower TR)
Resistance:
2370,25 (ATH)
2386,25 (Target on weekly chart)
Inital bias:
Sideways correction after strong bulltrend continues. We are in the upper third of the upper TR. We also have a DT on the 60 min chart at ATH. My inital bias is that we will have a TR day and trade lower.
Context Log
Small bear gap open and then sideway. LH after DT bear flag on 30 min ETH chart. Bear BO and test of 24 Feb big bear spike low. Then sideways with PB to VWAP.
Trade 1 (short): -1.5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Expected a second leg and MM after the bear BO
- Missread the PB
Comment: This was bad planning. I had already left the sceen and missed the bear BO that I had waited for. When I came back for a quick update I saw the bear BO and the PB and enterd the trade. My thoughts were: " I missed the BO but I still have a chance at the PB ". This is the second time I make the misstake of a quick entry when returning to the screen.
Trade 2 (short): 0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Expected a second leg after the bear BO
- L2 PB at VWAP
- Micro DT
Target (LoD): 4,5 points
SL: 2 point
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 2,25
Comment: Ok entry and management. Since the bear BO already had hit an obvious target a MM was not lileky so I aimed for LoD, but this was to optimistic. I let the market hit my entry once and then moved the SL to BE.
Hindsight Thoughts
The best entry would of course have been a short at the small DT after 2 hours. Unfortunately I didn't se the DT bear flag on the 30 min ETH chart during my pre-session analysis. And I also didn't forsee the target at 24 Feb big bear spike low.
These are the results of my first month discretionary trading. So I'm still a losing trader. My main problem seems to be bad planning. I have made a lot FOMO misstakes this month. I also need to improve my price action reading, especially when it comes to identifying S/R. I did focus more on my reward-risk-ratio during the last two week after good feedback from fellow traders.
My objective for March is to increase the precentage of well planned trades. This month only 50% of the trades were well planned. I hope to be able to reach 75% well planned trades at the end of March.