sstheo 

My target for next week is DOWN near 3970, based on "Symmetry." This target is really irrelevant since I am not a swing trader, but when I see a pattern like this it helps me understand some bigger forces. In fact, it is also highly possible that the bulls will continue today's power move and get us back up to new All Time Highs above 4240 next week! Gotta think about all major scenarios. Each 5 min throughout the day I must ask myself, "What is the state of the market? Where does it look like we are going in the next 5 to 30 min?" And then I must be prepared to continue in a current trade or reverse, or just get flat. 7 days from now doesn't even exist. But I still like to look at the daily chart. Notice how the 4169 line drawn early this morning was the high of the day! So there is value in looking at the daily chart.

Or Scenario 2.....

Notice how the 4169 line was the Open this Week!

ES Daily Scenario 2 (2021-05-21_6-14-31-ET)


Trade well,
Botts

Pissed me off.


(2 tick MYM renko bar. Times are US Mountain time, two hours behind ET)


How should a trader handle the EXASPERATION inherent in trading?

You get in a trade, and then it immediately goes against you.

AND THEN you dutifully take your stop (in this case 13 ticks).



How long was that trade? 9 seconds.

AND THEN it immediately reverses and meets your original profit target and beyond.

It is so frustrating!

But it is part of the game.

Yes, I was too close to the resistance visible on the prior candles.
Yes, perhaps my stop was too small.
Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

Sometimes the market is just random. We all have to get over the losses.

The alternative is NOT acceptable...
Not getting out of bad trades asap is NOT acceptable.
Revenge trading is NOT acceptable.

I would rather have a small 9 second loss of $6.50 than to have gotten short and still been short and down $30+ on one micro.

I am trying to build discipline (and my account size) so I can comfortably trade the full E-mini.

I can do this.

With each new trade I have a clean slate.

And if I followed my rules, then I am still "a winner."

I am up $200 on the day trading micros only, and I may yet get more.

I can do this.

I can be Zen about my losses.

I don't need to be pissed off.

sstheo 

How should a trader handle the EXASPERATION inherent in trading? You get in a trade (in this case a long near the lows of the day on MYM), and then it immediately goes against you. AND THEN you dutifully take your stop (in this case 13 ticks). AND THEN it immediately reverses and meets your original profit target and beyond. It is so frustrating. But it is part of the game.

I thought Im the best at putting stops tick perfect on reversion
And it somehow doesn’t matter if its 2 ticks or 8
Everytime!

sstheo 

My target for next week is DOWN near 3970, based on "Symmetry." But I still like to look at the daily chart. Notice how the 4169 line drawn early this morning was the high of the day! So there is value in looking at the daily chart.

Scenario 2 - Almost There (2021-05-24_10-23-01-ET)




Post Frankfurt Close (14:00 ET) [But Frankfurt was closed today regardless]

One Tick from Target (2021-05-24_14-40-53-ET)

Botts 

One Tick from Target

Man, you called it! Congrats.

Yesterday was a breakeven day, but today I finished up about $300. If I could do $300/day, that would be about $75k per year. Would that qualify as "Making a living with micros?" (the name of my journal.) Pretty dang close!

I got lots of shorts today on a "false breakout" premise.

Even though we were
(A) in "breakout mode" as we broke out of a range (defined by 1, 2, and 3) and
(B) surpassed the middle of the "W" pattern (point 3), and were
(C) very close to making new all-time highs again,
I know that ranges often create false breakouts and price falls back inside the range.



In addition to seeing the range box (blue) I knew that the daily 20 ema was mostly flat. Both of these scream "Range!" and there is a good case for a false breakout and a reversion to the mean trade.

In the case of this range, I believe the mean is at 4116. So to me, 4116 is a big magnet. We could get to the 20 EMA at 4150, or all the way to 4116 on this leg.

I was wrong on the last call (but @Botts got it right). Let's see how I do on this one.

Of course, just like last time, we could get new bulls and push up again ever further and ultimately make new ATH's this week. What is my threshold for considering the range condition over? A full measured move of the top half of the range. In this case 4175 - 4116 = about 69 points. 4175+ 69 points = 4244



So, unless/until we break above about 4244 (and get new ATH's), I will continue looking for shorts above the midline at 4116 based on this big range on the daily chart.

And even though my overall bias is short between 4244 and 4116, I am scalping both directions.

Anything can happen. Must be prudent and get out of losers quickly.

sstheo 

So, unless/until we break above about 4244 (and get new ATH's), I will continue looking for shorts above the midline at 4116 based on this big range on the daily chart. And even though my overall bias is short between 4244 and 4116, I am scalping both directions. Anything can happen. Must be prudent and get out of losers quickly.

Scenario - 2

End of month "potential" for a continuation higher going into the Memorial Day holiday Monday.

MES Daily chart with RSI (2021-05-26_8-01-25-ET)


Note the RSI is still rising (and above 50) on this 08:00 am screenshot.

Trade well,
Botts

@Botts, your analysis is good. Let's see what happens.

-----------------------

What does scalping the MYM look like?

Here are my 6 morning trades after the open. (7:30 is my market open time.)


(more recent at the top)



What was I thinking on each trade?

A. 7 ticks. Short. OBV was below price. Got out just in time.

B. 11 ticks. Short. OBV below price. VWAP as magnet because we are below the +1 std dev vwap band.

C. 5 ticks. Long. OBV above price. Market appears to be bottoming. 20 ema bullish. The market internals and the Russell were also strongly bullish at this time also.

D. 5 ticks. Long. OBV above price. Bottom formed as we broke two resistance levels in the 34,275 area. Breaking above the -1 std dev vwap band is a long signal for me also.

E. 10 ticks. Short. Long bull leg overextended. I saw resistance at the prior peak at 34,344 at 7:40 local time.

F. 8 ticks. Short. The 20 ema had turned over. Still thinking the bull run was a bit too far too fast.


I had several losses on the MNQ at about the same time. But I honored my stops and kept the losses small.

Happy to report that I should be getting my FIO journal contest prize soon. This should include the Journalytix software. And after a few days, I should be able to do some good MAE and MFE analysis on my trading. This should help me be able to scale up quicker.

sstheo 

@Botts, your analysis is good. Let's see what happens. ----------------------- What does scalping the MYM look like? Here are my 6 morning trades after the open. (7:30 is my market open time.) (more recent at the top) What was I thinking on each trade? A. 7 ticks. Short. OBV was below price. Got out just in time. B. 11 ticks. Short. OBV below price. VWAP as magnet because we are below the +1 std dev vwap band. C. 5 ticks. Long. OBV above price. Market appears to be bottoming. 20 ema bullish. The market internals and the Russell were also strongly bullish at this time also. D. 5 ticks. Long. OBV above price. Bottom formed as we broke two resistance levels in the 34,275 area. Breaking above the -1 std dev vwap band is a long signal for me also. E. 10 ticks. Short. Long bull leg overextended. I saw resistance at the prior peak at 34,344 at 7:40 local time. F. 8 ticks. Short. The 20 ema had turned over. Still thinking the bull run was a bit too far too fast. I had several losses on the MNQ at about the same time. But I honored my stops and kept the losses small. Happy to report that I should be getting my FIO journal contest prize soon. This should include the Journalytix software. And after a few days, I should be able to do some good MAE and MFE analysis on my trading. This should help me be able to scale up quicker.

I have to say I dont know if I'm jealous of your ability to predict... or your ability to BELIEVE in the prediction?

I'm finding I honestly don't understand how anyone cant believe anything they think in the future is going to happen.

I cant even read the SPOOS thread for that reason. Seems the more people are successful the more they think its because they can predict. But can they or have they a structural trading system that incorporates the traders equation? Plus I HATE the name.

So my question is... is it all based on probably? Do you believe your predictions are true or are they just hooks to hang your idea on and see what happens? To give you structure? To structure a good R/R a d probably?

Thanks in advance.

Joseph

Sent using the nexusfi.com mobile app

Sandpaddict 

I have to say I dont know if I'm jealous of your ability to predict... or your ability to BELIEVE in the prediction? I'm finding I honestly don't understand how anyone cant believe anything they think in the future is going to happen. I cant even read the SPOOS thread for that reason. Seems the more people are successful the more they think its because they can predict. But can they or have they a structural trading system that incorporates the traders equation? Plus I HATE the name. So my question is... is it all based on probably? Do you believe your predictions are true or are they just hooks to hang your idea on and see what happens? To give you structure? To structure a good R/R a d probably? Thanks in advance. Joseph Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Apologies @sstheo for hijacking your thread, responding since my post was mentioned.


Joseph,
there is no prediction, it is pure probability based on how you read the market ( market context / trading system). For e.g the chart I posted in SPOOS, when price moves thru 1 SD where 70% volume traded, what is the probability of price pull back to 50 / 60% retracement and continue lower?. I found that from backtesting, the probability is more than 50%, with good R/R, which warrants taking that trade, based on my analysis.

PS : I edited few of my posts to highlight probability and to avoid the notion that it was a prediction.