2024 Dragon

March 18th, 2024, 03:08 PM

so normally this would be a hype and chase day but everything was almost limit at open

bonds are not having it either, and mag7 just ripped only to drift

positions would be pared instead especially going into fomc

//

range is increasing and so is vol so best to stay away

something is brewing

March 19th, 2024, 02:21 PM

continuing on pre-fomc theme

we see that bottoms are not established in bonds or commodities (relief for energy)

recall financial crisis where dollar took a bit to also bottom but energy spiked and then dumped

//

at the same time, we see that mag7 is still in favor though large caps not so much

standard spy contains mag7 but also other components as well, so the bell tolled for major indexes

holding continues and small caps are not bad but also rate sensitive

//

vix also has yet to bottom and possibly means kicking the can

so the post-fomc reaction would likely deflate things further

we saw from inflation numbers that there would be room

//

oh and keep in mind that smci is a spy component

March 20th, 2024, 12:24 PM

so Q1 this year was a bit of a front-run expectation for rates / dot-plots

with the fomc, they may re-iterate and re-emphasize exactly this

the reduction in expectations does take time, enough to resize

//

keep in mind those expectations have not been normalized

the ramps in smci, crypto are pretty overdone for example

and something like that would give the fed pause

//

fed dot plot increased slightly, and inflation target as well

the post-fomc reaction at highs, but expect a revisit to weekly open

from there, would how the quarter closes and what to expect into april

//

a return or revisit would be a decent entry and indexes ok aside from dia

of the mag7 wary of meta and nvda and related smci and crypto

and the last couple of quarters bond have been holding on

.. can has been kicked

March 21st, 2024, 10:47 AM

the positive reaction should not spur fomo since there will be a requisite dip later

for the week already at max and would need to return to weekly open / kickoff

support last week was a launch point and seeking something similar into the end of quarter

//

energy may be dragging into april nfp but also expect the wildness to fade

bonds are as is and has been still just with expectations

crypto would see any bump up sold possibly

//

guessing there is a limit to tomorrow near today's high (SPY<524)

not certain whether we hit the monday open, though qqq is more compressed

iwm interestingly was the most behaved pre-fomc and now has more follow through due to rate sens

March 22nd, 2024, 10:17 AM

converting over to my own dot plot set and longer term

which would not require as much attention to minor daily fluctuations

will still estimate earnings and such but am putting less weight on short term

March 25th, 2024, 10:29 AM

so the smoothing is a bit more relaxed approach however slightly lagged

does imprint a better picture of the ongoing trend

though late from the '23 area, still a reasonable continuation

//

can see that vix would also move lower with bonds if support is broken

also see that energy is breaking out which is troublesome for inflation

which is also a possibility for crypto and even small caps

//

hard to assess the effects of generative AI and robotics

the infrastructure is there, but normally first wave tech needs to retrace / bust

the strength is in the revamp and adjustment where mass adaptation brings in the real wave

//

nvda, smci, mstr are fully flared recently with crypto, almost like satoshi was a construct for semis

the jensen presentations on compact 1 exobyte servers and robotics / omniverse are pushing things

the problem may be in the way the infrastructure for sensors and satellite applications will lag in dev time

//

for the mag7 components, aapl and tsla are getting hit but amzn msft meta nvda googl have to carry the weight (5/7)

since smci is a spy component, this would help as well in addition to energy and maybe other defensives like healthcare

carries seem steady, dollar strength is maintained, japan is still strong vs. china, interesting gold ramp though commodities mixed

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March 25th, 2024, 04:17 PM

bonus: crypto is the big winner today

eth btc, ibit, riot, coin esp. mstr and clsk

might as well get some and add some

//

there is the change to play devil's advocate here

since insiders are selling harder, would be useful to take pause

currencies can play into a dollar weakness scenario, along with emergency cuts

//

forgoing any inflation target due to some unforeseen circumstance

energy could form weakness in the event resistance holds / considered recessionary

and the revisit or retest of current index support would generate momentum for a selloff

//

food for thought.. while aapl and tsla have succumbed already or are on the verge

amzn is fighting resistance and google, msft, meta even previous nvda if reversed would show divergence

and vol would respond with a quick break after having trickled lower.. interesting

//

$SPCS20R the case schiller composite is for indiscriminate buyers at higher rates

or first timers but either way is a large part of inflation costs.. lower this and the target is in reach

dhi kbh len mdc phm homebuilders feed the cycle further with lower material costs (rand length lumber is reversing already)

March 26th, 2024, 02:42 PM

tsla balked at resistance an attempt but already weak

no follow through.. at least reddit is up?

and whether lower yields translate to index propping unknown

//

semi related is under but small caps are floating

energy ranged, so are bonds into nfp

defensives, healthcare are firm

March 28th, 2024, 02:08 PM

yeah so meta is overdone, some others like smci and mstr

nvda tsm are some others nvo aapl looks to be saved

msft googl possibly too so the mag7 stalls out

//

interested in the bond devs whether they can find support finally

int'l japan overdone too, china might find a good area soon

crypto is out there, energy still goin, vol needs a bump

//

best to be defensive

also, vix is trying but cannot pull lower

cash or bonds if the opportunity presents itself

2024 Dragon

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2024 Dragon