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I have not been a very active member over the years and recently posted a review of the worst interaction I have ever had with a third-party vendor. The replies I received were so supportive and some good advice for direction on how to continue to resolve the situation was offered.
To show my gratitude and appreciation I've chosen to share some nuggets of knowledge that I've acquired over the decades of trading. I hope this inspires discussion, helps those who choose to study WD Gann's methods and input from other traders who may also be using his methods.
There is no holy grail, I incorporate other price information with the Square of Nine (SQ9) such as volume profile, pivot points and market structure after drilling down into lower time frames to confirm if a trade will be placed when a level is reached. There are also key dates that WD Gann used, and the four key dates are the solstices and equinoxes each year. No, price doesn't necessarily turn on these dates, but I've witnessed repeatedly that price will setup three or four days prior then a trend change happens. I note the close of price on key dates. If a key date falls on a weekend one rolls the date to the closer trading day of Friday or Monday.
The SQ9 is basically a square root calculator and will expand and constrict with the numbers within the range as price moves. The center square is key and if price closes twice or more below or above this number then a trend change generally occurs. We are dealing with numbers, so is it just math we are dealing with? Sprinkle in human emotion and time and I say yes!
I primarily day and swing trade the ES and MES. At times I trade soybeans and wheat when I see a setup that I like.
For the chart posted I was not able to include the 7/23 key date which was a Sunday. On 7/24 the close was 4583.50 and the high for the period was 4634.50 on 7/27 with the day closing at 4564.25. Note the retest back up into 8/1 which failed to reach the diagonal or corner level of 4624 and closed at 4601.25. This was the first sign of a trend change. On 8/2 4590 was the diagonal or corner level to enter a short and when the 4573.25 horizontal level (support) failed it was all downhill. On 8/4 (8/5 being the next key date which was a Saturday) the 4573.25 was retested however price only achieved a high of 4560.75 and a LH on the daily chart.
The next key date is 8/20. The ES bottomed on 8/18 and the center square price of 4356 was an exit for the short and time to go long, beautiful doji candle with the close just above the open.
On 8/23 and 8/24 price hit the 4472.25 vertical cross level and turned down on 8/24 with 4455.50 diagonal corner level being breached again.
The retest down only lasted until 8/25 4372.25 vertical cross level not able to hold price down. On 8/28 4422.25 was the diagonal cross corner level buy with targets of 4506. 4522.50 and 4539. This price action up to 9/1 caused market structure confusion as it pierced the 8/10 LH of 4544.75 however not the LH on 8/4 of 4560.75 with 4539 being the vertical cross (resistance) level to short. Short at 4539 and target the same levels down plus the 4439 horizontal support level. The next key date is 9/5 and a bearish harami was formed confirming the short.
That's enough for now as surely if you're not familiar with Gann your head is probably spinning. I'm not here to say it works all the time however once a market gets into sync with the rotation the probability goes up from my experience. Note as of today. 9/13 the ES is dancing with the 4472.25 vertical cross level and the 4455.50 diagonal corner with the 5D, 20D and 34D SMA playing ping-pong. 4455.50 and 4489 are the levels to watch at this time. A falling wedge or will it find support and rally. I'm leaning towards the short side.
Well, I should have rolled over sooner to the ES 12-23 contract as this is relevant moving forward. I appreciate the Thank You's and views. Even after all these decades I don't consider myself a Master Trader just a student of the markets always learning.
Quad witching has once again done a number on the S&P. I did trade the 4556.25 short in the MES on Friday and hit three of the four targets down, 4489 came up short by five pts or 20 ticks.
On the daily there is a lot of convergence at the 4525 to 4539 price level. Things that make one go Mmmm, now what? I've noted the following: the middle band of the Bollinger band is at 4539, the 5D and 34D SMA are basically right at the weekly pivot point of 4525 as of the close on 9/15. Linear regression suggests a move up to at least 4509.50 and VWAP is at 4527.The 4H chart linear regression suggests a move up to at least 4525. The fib retracement of the 9/15 daily candle has the 50% at 4530 and the 61.8 at 4538.50. Mmmm, indeed!
As an example of why I prefer this method and once again shows me why is the price action of the Globex session before the RTH open Friday morning. Price bounced around in a narrow range all night and didn't hit 4556.25 until the 6:30am 30M candle which retraced back up to 4561.25 and didn't go past 4562 which was key IMHO. Once it cleared on the 7am 30M candle with a high of 4557 it was look out below.
Yes, my charts may appear cluttered and busy. I spent decades doing take-offs and estimating electrical projects, so they are not so cluttered to my eyes.
What do I have my charts? Darvas Box, AuLinReg, Range Rider, Weekly pivot points on the daily and daily pivot points on the lower time frames including four, eight and twelve Better Renko brick charts. Bollinger Bands (14,2 setting), B4v3, Orderflow VWAP with three deviations either shown or hidden depending on the chart, two auto trend lines (weak 3 touches and strong 5 touches) 5, 8, 20, 34, 50 100, 200 SMA depending on the chart and on the bottom is a modified combination of MACD, Squeeze Mom Indicator and the B4v3 BB/MACD portion of this indicator. I have Volume Profile on the twelve Better Renko brick chart only with the daily and weekly sessions.
When one measures the distance between the SQ9 levels at the current price levels it is approximately 16 to 18 points +/- and as expressed expands and constricts as price moves up and down respectively. This is why I chose the Renko Brick sizes used as it serves to divide the distance between the levels well. I color code the levels to match the vertical, diagonal and horizontal price squares of the SQ9 per my Excel version I made and show them on all my charts.
How to use the SQ9? I reference it to start the trading day and at each hour and where is price trading. Entries are best when price goes above or below and then pullbacks to the level of interest. If price is above the middle Bollinger Band on the Daily, 4H, 60M and 30M with the 5D and 20D SMA stacked up on the daily it's a long and short if below. The stop loss is placed initially at the SQ9 level above or below accordingly. This is why when I'm taking a big swing trade (multiple contracts and targets) such as on Friday it's best to use the MES IMHO. I tend to be aggressive at times such as Friday morning and will take the trade early as indicators and price action is lagging. Risk vs reward.
Yes, we still have a descending triangle pattern working with the 7/27 being the high, with 9/1 and 9/15 being two LH's. I have key resistance at the 4573.25 horz and until broken bearish. I would like to see price continue to close under 4539 preferably. Two consecutive closes below 4489 and then if this market closes and stays below 4455.50 then 4405.75, we should be heading down to the 4225-center square rotation range of prices. Only time will tell.
The next key date is the Fall Equinox which is 9/23 this year so the close on 9/22 Friday is important. This is one of the four major key dates each year.
I truly hope this is helpful and is of interest to other members. Please feel free to share your insight, knowledge, etc. as I'm always learning!
Here's $SPX daily with my Gann Price/Time indicator. I noticed coming off the March swing low a "preference" for the 90° and 270° levels which then happened to be there at the late July top:-
I was out of town last week visiting family and yesterday was my birthday, I noticed a couple of key things of the price action for 9/27/23 and the Globex session for the start of 9/28.
#1 - The volume for 9/27 was larger than the three previous days and just under the volume of 9/21's which was a large range day.
#2 - The price close of 4313.50 was within 1.25pts of 9/26 and the high of the day was within 12pts of the 5D SMA.
#3 - It basically formed a long legged doji or butterfly doji.
#4 - The Globex session did not retest 4290.25 and the weekly S1 level at 4307.25 was at the 4306.75 horz. support level plus 4309 was the daily pivot point.
I made the following trade plan before the US session open. Enter at 4306.75, stop loss at 4298.50 (half-way between the entry level and the next level down of 4290.25, including under the Globex low of 4301). Targets were the three levels up of 4323, 4339.50 and 4356 which missed by one tick as the high of the day was 4555.75. Close enough for me and usually I front run a bit as noted within the SQ9 calc reqs. I loaded up and held on for a day late birthday present of $XX,XXX. These setups are the days that make bank for the trading business. 9/25 and 9/26 were quite profitable however the setup was not as clear for me from the start of the RTH.
My two cents moving forward for ES 12-23. 4306.75 needs to hold as support which would maintain LH's. The close at 4342 today still maintains the center square value of 4096. A close and maintaining price above the 4372.50 horz support level moves the center square to 4225 which opens the rotation of price up to 4624 as long as price doesn't have consecutive closes below 4372.50. If ES 12-23 can get back above 4489 and maintain price above, then the center square value is 4356 with rotation of price up to 4761.
Current observations, there is a lot of confluence from the 9/15 4566 LH and the 9/27 4277 current LL. Coincidence? I don't think so, hahaha! (As of today's close,)
#1 - The 50% fib retracement and the centerline of the 14,2 BB Band are roughly the same as the 4422.25 diag. corner, within 2 pts.
#2 - The 61.8% fib retracement level is the same as the 4455.50 diag. corner,
#3 - I use the 34D SMA and it's basically at the 4472.25 vert cross level.
#4 - The 50D SMA is at 4511.25 with the 78.6% at 4504. Or 4506 horz level.
Only time will tell if it turns or runs past the LH of 4566. I will be watching the Oct key dates of 10/6 and 10/21, especially a few days before like a Friday, Monday, monthly options expiration or any red news event on or near these dates. The next FOMC meeting is Oct 31 - 11/1, Halloween, go figure.
4455.50/4472.25/4489 zone seems likely. 7/27 high to first LH is a 86 pt difference. 86 pts down from the first LH is 4511 (current 50D SMA). 86 pts down from second LH is 4480 There is a 31 pt difference between the first and second LH's.
I've been short today since 4290.25 got retested and failed to hold. Two levels down have been reached so far: 4274 and 4257.50. On the rally back up to 4278 I added to my position and have 4257.50 again, 4241.25 and 4225 for the next three targets. 4225 is the next key square and we'll have to watch the price action to attempt to decipher where it wants to go next.
I failed to reach 4241.25 as I went flat during the Globex (pm) session on 10/3. The "thieves in the night" made the low of the week at 4235.50 on the 1:30am MST 30M candle on 10/4, then the high of the week of 4304 before the close of the RTH session.
On Friday morning, 10/6 (first WDG day of Oct) the light shined over the mountain, and I found clarity if confirmed by the price action for the day to come. The rotation of the third level of the SQ9 4096-center square had not been broken as 4225 was not reached during the week and price remained within the third level. So, 4241.25 was support and 4304 was resistance. If 4241.25 was breached look for shorts, if it held as support go long at 4257.50 and reverse the targets; 4274, 4306.50, 4323 and 4356. The Daily 5D SMA had reached 4300.50 and the middle BB at 4347 was probable within two days if 4306.50/4323 were reached.
I was surprised that 4242.25 was the LOD on 10/6 as 4258 was the prior day low however 4241,25 held as support, I stuck to the plan, and you know the rest of the story. It's not often price rotates 270* of one level in one trading session.
Another gentleman that has shown to be a good guy is Stacey Burke and his method is similar in my opinion. Kudos to him for being calm and caring, offering mentorship and guidance for free. Describing and stating how he trades the 3 Day Market Cycle pattern has been difficult to understand by some. So recently he commented about the new "Matrix Sunglasses for Traders" he's selling, (spoof) so they can see through all the BS and lies trained to believe, being taught by "Furu's, learned from others and not seeing the Market for what it is. ROFLMAO, too funny! Timing, levels, behavior and price. My hats off and I applaud you Sir! Well done! Not everyone can see the painting in progress, hear the story being told or can figure out the moving jigsaw puzzle. I choose to take it one day at a time, if this then that and expect the unexpected even if it may not seem possible. Catch the wave and ride it as long as I can. Know where I'm wrong and get out,
My current observations as of 10/9 after midnight:
The 4306.50 horz. support level so far is holding. A break of 4302/4298 then a retest of 4290.25 is possible. A break and closes below 4274 is bearish with 4257.50 as the next corner. 4241.25 is key weekly support.
Current Naked POC's - 4390, 4405, 4499,25 and 4570.75.
The first two are within two ADR's, anything is possible, and the third is within the 4489 key sq and the 89D SMA at 4496.
I'm using 9/22 the Fall Equinox high of 4399 as my Fib Retracement 0% anchor and technically it is the third LH up. With the current 4235.50 low the 50% and 61.8% pocket is 4317.25-4298.
10/17/2023; Just a quick post as the rollercoaster ride rounds the top again. There is a naked POC at 4355.75 and was not touched as the market turned 10 points above just shy of 8am MST/10am EST. Hence the rollercoaster comment. Since 8:15am MST/10:15am EST not one break of 4389 has held below 4386 and continued down to 4355.75. I've rotated up 9 pts to 4398 due to this price action over the last hour. Selling 4398 with 4405.75 stop as I believe it's a trap and the MM's missed intentionally (10 pts right on the button, mmm?!) I could be all wet and completely wrong, trade at your discretion. With a stop, always.
Squeeze me please!
Reversed after getting stopped out at 4405.75 at 9:32am MST at 4405.75 long shortly thereafter with 4422.25 as T1 and 4439 as T2 if Ms. Market decides to get there. If this than that! Break 4405.75 and hold price below 4401 then I'll be back in the bear camp. I'm watching the 10:30am and 11:00am MST 30M candles carefully for a reversal such as a bearish inverted hammer, shooting star or engulfing? Thankfully I had a very profitable day yesterday and this morning, so I have just stuck my toe in on the reversal too long with two contracts. I moved my stop up to 4411.50 from breakeven at 10:15am MST. Boy what a day!!
I thought as we're approaching a key Gann anniversary date and one year from a significant major low that it would be good to share my opinion and what I am anticipating very soon. It took me years of observation and seeing it happen quite often to prove that it is worthwhile to pay attention to WD Ganns' key or anniversary dates. Whether it be a major or minor top or bottom on that day or within a day, seeing confirmation of a trend change shortly after or continuation of a current trend on one of these dates happens often enough that I pay attention. The man was no fool in my opinion. Being in harmony; price and time keeping in mind that markets will retrace and retest. There is no holy grail indicator or system, just you and your methods will determine the outcome.
The Winter Solstice on 12/21 is the last of the four main dates of the year. Last year on 12/22/2022 a major low was placed at 3868.75 just one tick below the current center square of 3969 for the price range coming into last year's Winter Solstice. I laughed when I saw it as one tick below ensures a fill. Would you give it a shot for 8, 12 or 16 ticks of risk? I'm on the lookout for a top or turning point one year later. Considering the parabolic rocket ride since the end of October and the sideways inversion which ended as noted on one of the attached charts and on 12/7, we have continuation of the existing trend happen on the first key date of December. I'm currently watching, and any position shown long or short is on my sim account at this time as it helps me to pay attention and be more observant. I prefer more confluence and with three days left of this week being patient.
Note: please recall the lines on the attached charts are color coded to the square of the prices shown within the Square of Nine, the 4624 version is attached also for everyone to use, note and observe has they wish. The center square value when surpassed is red on the chart with 4624 being the center square of the current price range. If price trades below 4760 then 4489 becomes the center square, then watch for a trend change if 4761 is not recaptured so to speak and lower levels moving forward,
The Square of Nine with 4818, yesterdays close rounded off inputted has 4812.75 as a sell at the vertical cross down with support 1 at 4795.50 being the corner of rotation down further if breached, Support 2 at 4778.25 the center square of the range of prices or 50% and the horz. level of the cross. Then 4761 is support 3 at the corner which would become the center square value if price traded above 4901 in the future therefore opening up more expansion of price to the upside and if it fails to hold, see sentence two above in this paragraph. At this time being prudent is key as price today may find support at 4812.75 during RTH or just before and retest the ETH range like a volume profile rotation trade example from the POC at 4711.50 to VAH at 4821.5 is what I have at this time for these values and of course it may keep going higher. Note the context, momentum and the market participants and we'll see what happens soon.
