Prediction Markets & Event Contracts

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Discuss prediction markets, event contracts, and outcome-based trading. Covers CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, CME Event Contracts, and Polymarket - from economic and political events to sports outcomes, weather, and crypto.

Page 4 of 8

	Replies	Views	Last Post
Tehran Stays Silent: Iran Peace Odds Crash 9pts to 24.5% -- Energy Markets Repricing as May 15 Deadline Passed [Updated]	2	189	May 9th, 2026 04:54 PM
Victory Day Delivers: Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Market Closes YES as Iran Remains the Unresolved	0	143	May 9th, 2026 08:15 AM
Hormuz Surges From 14% to 26.5% Intraday as Iran's Answer Arrives -- A 1-in-4 Oil Shock Risk Be	0	88	May 8th, 2026 04:16 PM
White House Drops First Alien Files Today -- Market Says Only 17.5% -- Plus Hantavirus Cruise C	0	73	May 8th, 2026 04:02 PM
Iran's Answer Due Today: Peace Surges to 33.5%, Invasion Drops to 20.5% -- Warships Exchange Fi	0	105	May 8th, 2026 10:43 AM
14-Point MOU 'Closest Yet' as Trump Sets May 15 Deadline -- Oil's $40 Physical/Paper Gap [Updated]	1	139	May 7th, 2026 07:18 AM
The 50/50 Paradox: Peace and Invasion Each at 20% -- Iran's May 15 Binary Enters Final 8 Days	0	96	May 7th, 2026 07:13 AM
Iran Airspace Collapses 18 Points to 15.5% While Hormuz Stays Frozen at 2.45% -- Prediction Mar	0	114	May 5th, 2026 03:15 PM
Iran Airspace Contract Surges to 33.5% as 'Project Freedom' Delivers Zero Tankers Through Hormu	0	93	May 4th, 2026 03:16 PM
Hormuz Normalization Collapses to 19.5% -- Iran Regime Fall Doubles to 3% as World Cup Clock Ru	0	128	May 3rd, 2026 03:06 PM
The May 31 Binary: 60% Trump Declares Iran Ops Over, Only 22% for Peace Deal -- World Cup Kicko	0	128	May 1st, 2026 03:15 PM
$120M Resolves at Near-Zero: April 30 Was Never Close -- Now Markets Reprice Iran's Next Chapte	1	141	May 1st, 2026 07:14 AM
MegaETH Proves the Crowd Right: Prediction Markets Called the $1.6B FDV Bull's-Eye Before Launc	0	167	May 1st, 2026 07:10 AM
$241M Confirms Fed Hold as Powell May Chair His Final FOMC -- Iran Endgame Enters Final 24 Hour	8	495	April 29th, 2026 11:17 PM
The 'Two Popes' Scenario: Powell May Stay as Fed Governor After Warsh Vote -- $199M Positioned	1	179	April 28th, 2026 03:34 PM
Iran Rejects Hormuz Deal Without Nukes -- Brent 11, FOMC Starts, Warsh Vote Today [Updated]	1	95	April 28th, 2026 07:18 AM
Iran FM Flies to Moscow as Trump Cancels Envoys -- Peace Odds at 2.45% With 96 Hours to April 3	5	349	April 27th, 2026 11:07 AM
Powell in 48 Hours: Word Markets Give 78% on 'Inflation,' Fed Hold at 99.75% as Iran Peace Hits	0	132	April 26th, 2026 09:07 AM
A critical view at "Prediction Markets"	1	227	April 26th, 2026 12:54 AM
Probability Collapse: Bitcoin $150k Craters from 15% to 1.35% -- Fed Hold at 99.65% Four Days O	0	125	April 25th, 2026 03:13 PM

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Prediction Markets & Event Contracts

Discuss prediction markets, event contracts, and outcome-based trading. Covers CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, CME Event Contracts, and Polymarket - from economic and political events to sports outcomes, weather, and crypto.