I´m going to give the premarket post more structure by dividing it in 3 categories


News, numbers, earnings

• These can impact the market directly
• These can impact indirectly for example when we are waiting for important news the probabilty of WAIT AND BALANCE is increased and we should not expect much MOVEMENT

Objectives

• Factual or close to factual information, for example
• We have otf on the daily
• The daily is in a 5 day BALANCE
• The oni is long
• We open with gap

Thoughts

• Interpretations, for example
• Tomorrow is fed-meeting, do not expect much MOVEMENT before
• Expect more Balance until proven otherwise
• We are a bit short in the hole. Potential for covering or at least an early fade
• Market seems to be xy, go for smaller/bigger moves
• Wait for the news at 10:00 as these are often shake-out-news

20231025 pre market



News, Numbers, Earnings

• yesterday after close we had googl ans msft earnings
• today after close meta
• powell speaks after the close

Objectives

• the daily is in a 3 day balance
• this balance is between yearly vwap and yearly poc
• yesterday was quasi an inside day
• the onr is competely inside yesterday

Thoughts

• Expect more BALANCE until proven otherwise
• The last two days saw long MOVES which had no continuation moves but "come back in moves"
• As with every balance the edges are interesting. Do we see FADES or BREAKOUTS?
• Expect CHOP inside

20231015 post market



trades 10 25

• non true gap and go
• cum delta quickly fell to -20k
• i sold first pullback
• scaled one out, left one in
• rough contra auction in c,d
• positioned for second move in good location
• targeted the swing low
• good structured trading

Not long ago i would have changed position to long above vwap because of fear of missing a v-turn... The decision to eliminate the higher tf swing trading was very beneficial for my intraday trading.

tpo month 10 26



Lets see if we can break away from the fat part of the yearly profile ...

20231026 pre market



Numbers, earnings

• tomorrow pce

Objectives

• Yesterday we broke out of 3 day balance
• We had continuation in asia session. With the 8:30 numbers we see some up-move
• We open with a small gap
• We open in the higher 3rd of the on range so there has already been some fade

Thoughts

• Early, offensive fade makes no sense as we open a good amount higher compared to the onl
• Nevertheless there can occur covering
• As with every gap it will be interesting to see if we find acceptance in y rth range
• The whole picture is bearish but inventory is already short

20231026 post market


trades 10 26

• We were far away from value as shown on monthly and weekly vwap
• Nevertheless we made another 60 points range to the downside
• We were not able to get in y range so we consequently went lower
• C,D,E made only marginal lower lows, similar to a poor low which indicates that a market is too short
• But then in F we went clearly lower again
• I think we are a bit overextended to the short side. In this environment i did not feel comfortable sitting in short positions
• Consequently i did smaller trades on both sides, long and short
• This is releatively new to me so the execution was not so smooth but ok
• I was never in danger and ended clearly green
• It is a trade off, on the one hand you have to trade, what is, on the other hand you have to align to context

BIg Picture 10 27

1. We try to move away from the fat part of the yearly profile
2. We have reached the balance area low of an old multi week balance (good destination)
3. We are near yearly vwap -1SD (lower edge of developing value area)
4. Relative to monthly vwap we are far away from value
5. Relative to weekly vwap we pulled back to SD-1

Trading will always be ambigous
If you want a clear recipe, bake a cake

pre market 20231027


News & numbers
yesterday amc amzn
10 am uni michigan (shake out time)

Objectives
the onr is completely inside the rth
we open in the middle of y rth and value

Thoughts
trade later, expect chop, at least inside the onr
we are falling for 2 weeks, we are overextended to the shortside
medium term inventory is short
Covering can be interesting but do not anticipate it
Let the trades come to you

20231027 post market



trades 10 27

• Total bs day for me
• We opened and had a weak down auction that was not able to get to yrth l
• As we had clear signs of change i tried some longs but they did not work
• Tried a continuation scalp short when it seemd to be rolled over to the shortside. Did not work
• Then it seemed to gain some strength on the long side but it failed at ibh and fell the rest of the session
• Market simply continues its one time framing down on the daily

Important news this week

• wednesday: fed meeting
• thursday amc: aapl earnings
• friday: nfp