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We saw quite of a strong bear move down ~EU open followed up by some strong buying, it has recovered most of the bear move so far, looks to be stabilizing
Last few days market looks to have stabilized between 4880 and 4830
All time NQ high @ 4819.50
All time NQ intraday high 4907.50
No key news today
Banks are currently down 0.5-2%
Vix is up 7% pre open
CL is up to 46.50
EUR.USD @ 1.05, crazy how much this has fallen in the last couple of years - how does a strong dollar correlate with the NQ? It's a question I haven't spent time discovering an answer
Draghi talking today? Just saw it on Bloomberg so that could shift markets
Scenarios
Open up slightly bullish off the open, we make it to ON high and then drop to at least 4850, potentially 4840. Move bull after the 4840 area
Open up slightly bullish off the open, we make it to ON high and then trend bear for the rest of the day. We see a bit of a pullback around the 4840 area, but it doesn't go higher than the 50-55 area
Open up a bit uncertain right off the open, staying between 4855 and 4865. Then continue a creeping bull move until the 4880 area, trend down from there until either ~4840 or 4850, and range between those 2 points for the remaining of the day
Open up slightly bearish until we find some strong support, either at the 4850 or 4840 area and trend bull until 4880. Range between those 2 points after that
Open up bull and move past the ON area quite easily. Reach the 4880 area and find some chop or pullback, then once we find some support from the pullback continue to trend bull until ~4900, we could potentially establish a new intra day high (reference @ 4907.50)
Open up stronly bearish and slice through the 50 area. We pullback ~ 4840 but volume profile shows traces of a potential bear trend day. We trend bear after the pullback and break the 4840 area on 2nd or potentially 3rd contact. 4830 shows a bit of a pullback but the trend continues until 4820 or ~ end of day
Setups I'll take today
~4900
LF Short
If bull trend day, you want to see strong exhaustion and/or reversal signs
Stop behind 4808 is ideal but will be very difficult to get
Aim for 4814 is safe, 4874 is stretch, 4866 is 3rd
~4880
LF Short
You want to gauge the strength of the bull move and see whether or not we will break this on first contact
Stop behind 4885 is ideal
Target 4861 is safe, 4856 is stretch, 3rd stretch is 4851, 4th stretch is 4843. Secure 18 pts of profit if going for the 4843 target and only if the market looks to be trending nicely
~4880
LF Long
If things look like we are going to have a bull trend day, take this setup
Be careful of a potential pullback at ~4890 area
You might want be tempted to take this setup on a pullback and closer to the ~4875 area, be careful if you are looking for this. You want to make sure that the market looks like it has found strong support before continuing the bull trend
Safe target is 4984, stretch is 4898, 3rd stretch is 4904. Don't hold more than this even if things look promising
~4870 (ON High)
LF Short
Be careful about entering this preemptively
You are looking for some good reversal signs, exhaustion is not good enough to enter on this
Safe target is 4856, stretch is 4851, 3rd stretch is 4846 but guarantee 15 pts of profit before going for 3rd target
Be careful not to get greedy on this and watch the 60-50 area closely
~4870 (ON High)
LF Long
Be aware of a potential pullback at ~4880 or even ~4875
You must see some very strong bullish signs in order to take this
This is one of those setups that you are more than likely to avoid on first contact, but could be strong if we see a pullback after first touching the 4880 area
Safe target is 4883, stretch target is 4889, 3rd target is 4897 but guarantee 12 pts of profit before going for 3rd target
If we are seeing some bull trend day signs, then you may look to hold on to this for a bit longer, but be ready to exit at anytime ~4900 area
~4850
LF Long
PDL will be 4852 for RTH, so we might see some volume start to pick up around that area
Be careful of when and how this setup gets triggered. Do not blindly take it and it must be aligned to one of your scenarios above
This is one of those areas that showed some sup/res during the ON session but not enough to follow on its own
Safe target is 4864, stretch is 4869, 3rd stretch is 4874
Do not get too trigger happy with this
~4850
LF Short
Don't look for a breakdown setup here, only take this if we are pulling back from the 4840 area and there are some decent signs of a reversal
Market has to be looking to strongly break the 40 area if there's going to be enough profit for it to be worth the risk here
This could be a scale-in point if things look relatively bearish
Safe target is 4836, stretch target is 4831
~4840
LF Long
You are looking for strong signs of a reversal here
Can enter preemptively if the market type allows it
Stop behind the 4835 area is ideal
Safe target is 4854, stretch target is 4858, 3rd stretch is 4867, 4th stretch is 4874 but you must secure a 20 pt profit before aiming for the 4th stretch target
Expect a pullback ~ 4850 area, so don't move your stop too far up or it could get hit before continuing a bull move
Be careful about this on 2nd contact, make sure you take context into account and don't just hone in so hard on this that you miss signs we are in a bear trend day
~4840
LF Short
This is a tough setup to take as there might not be much room for a target and you'll have to take it on a pullback
Only take on a pullback and if the market is showing signs of a bear trend day
This is oen of those setups you are not likely to take, but it doesn't mean you can't prepare for it
~4830
LF Long
Exhaustion signs or strong reversal signs are good here
If a bear trend day has gotten us here, be hesitant about this
Stop behind 4824 is ideal
Safe target is 4844, stretch is 4848, 3rd stretch is 4857 but guarantee 15 pts of profit for this
Things to watch today
OTF, when are you stepping in?
Will we see some big moves today as people ready up some positions for key news this week and next?
Do not get greedy with your trades, any changes in targets must be because the market is signs of reaching there before taking out your modified stop, and not because you 'hope' the market will go there
Stick to your trade management rules
4 RTH trades maximum, but only take a 4th if you will guarantee a 0.75% day even if you lose. Do not 'look' for setups after the 1st or 2nd setup please
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Very low volume but decent range day led to me not reading the market well and ending early. Thankfully I was able to keep my losses small so even though I lost all 3 trades I took today, I'm only down ~0.70% for the day.
I honestly felt very nervous throughout this whole trade. The setup itself was good, but the entry point was not good at all
I know I had a bad entry point from the start and the market was balancing between 2 ticks from my stop and like a point below my entry, so that's never something I feel good with when I'm taking a trade with the trend.
One thing I haven't thought about much s the scale on the right hand side. The move off the open looked VERY strong as it was moving very fast, but this was just because my scale was a lot more zoomed in than usual as the last day was a very low range day. I need to keep this in mind so that I don't let something so silly cloud my judgment in the future.
I lowered my stop once the market started to go my way, as if I'm wrong I could see us hitting the 4865-4868 mark easily and there's no sense in losing more money than I need to if I'm wrong
Stop filled
Trade grade - Bad
Not in plan
Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51-49 gamble
Second trade of the day
So market moved up, then it started to balance near the top of 4870, we saw a decent amount of volume that was being sold at that time and it looked like a good entry
I got a good entry point, goods top, and the target was ~ safe.
The market started moving my way and I figured that if we do break the 70 area, we would at least hit the 75 area so there's no sense in taking a bigger loss if I'm wrong.
Good thing I lowered my stop, because all of a sudden the market moved all the way to 4880.
Trade grade - Excellent
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
What made it excellent was that I lowered my stop to avoid a bigger loss if I was wrong. This saved me some $ today
Third trade taken
Ok so my shorts haven't been so good, and I'm still feeling bearish but I'm not seeing signs of a range day, I'm seeing signs of a bull day so what do you do? You look for a pullback, you aim for a good entry on that pullback, and go long.
This is exactly what I did with my 3rd trade, but it didn't work out.
Trade grade - Good
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
Psychology goals today
0 FOMO trades- Failed
0 Emotional trades- Passed
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
Do not get greedy with your trades, any changes in targets must be because the market is signs of reaching there before taking out your modified stop, and not because you 'hope' the market will go there- Passed
Stick to your trade management rules- Passed
4 RTH trades maximum, but only take a 4th if you will guarantee a 0.75% day even if you lose. Do not 'look' for setups after the 1st or 2nd setup please- Passed
End of day screenshot
Overview
Overall my first trade wasn't good, it was a FOMO trade and not a good entry at all. I shouldn't have taken it but I was able to come back and take 2 good trades. I ended up losing those 2 other trades, but I'm ok with that because I feel I traded well on the last 2 trades, I'm not just not reading the market very well today.
Today is a very weird day, extremely low volumes but we see some big swings. I don't know if volume profile is useful at all on days like today. It didn't seem to help much at all to be honest.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Stop behind 4808 is ideal but will be very difficult to get
Aim for 4814 is safe, 4874 is stretch, 4866 is 3rd
~4880
LF Short
You want to gauge the strength of the bull move and see whether or not we will break this on first contact
Stop behind 4885 is ideal
Target 4861 is safe, 4856 is stretch, 3rd stretch is 4851, 4th stretch is 4843. Secure 18 pts of profit if going for the 4843 target and only if the market looks to be trending nicely
~4870 (ON High)
LF Short
Be careful about entering this preemptively
You are looking for some good reversal signs, exhaustion is not good enough to enter on this
Safe target is 4856, stretch is 4851, 3rd stretch is 4846 but guarantee 15 pts of profit before going for 3rd target
Be careful not to get greedy on this and watch the 60-50 area closely
~4870 (ON High)
LF Long
Be aware of a potential pullback at ~4880 or even ~4875
You must see some very strong bullish signs in order to take this
This is one of those setups that you are more than likely to avoid on first contact, but could be strong if we see a pullback after first touching the 4880 area
Safe target is 4883, stretch target is 4889, 3rd target is 4897 but guarantee 12 pts of profit before going for 3rd target
If we are seeing some bull trend day signs, then you may look to hold on to this for a bit longer, but be ready to exit at anytime ~4900 area
~4850
LF Long
PDL will be 4852 for RTH, so we might see some volume start to pick up around that area
Be careful of when and how this setup gets triggered. Do not blindly take it and it must be aligned to one of your scenarios above
This is one of those areas that showed some sup/res during the ON session but not enough to follow on its own
Safe target is 4864, stretch is 4869, 3rd stretch is 4874
Do not get too trigger happy with this
~4850
LF Short
Don't look for a breakdown setup here, only take this if we are pulling back from the 4840 area and there are some decent signs of a reversal
Market has to be looking to strongly break the 40 area if there's going to be enough profit for it to be worth the risk here
This could be a scale-in point if things look relatively bearish
Safe target is 4836, stretch target is 4831
~4840
LF Long
You are looking for strong signs of a reversal here
Can enter preemptively if the market type allows it
Stop behind the 4835 area is ideal
Safe target is 4854, stretch target is 4858, 3rd stretch is 4867, 4th stretch is 4874 but you must secure a 20 pt profit before aiming for the 4th stretch target
Expect a pullback ~ 4850 area, so don't move your stop too far up or it could get hit before continuing a bull move
Be careful about this on 2nd contact, make sure you take context into account and don't just hone in so hard on this that you miss signs we are in a bear trend day
~4830
LF Long
Exhaustion signs or strong reversal signs are good here
If a bear trend day has gotten us here, be hesitant about this
Stop behind 4824 is ideal
Safe target is 4844, stretch is 4848, 3rd stretch is 4857 but guarantee 15 pts of profit for this
~4830
LF Short
Breakdown trade here
OTF would drive this if it's going to happen
Watch target closely, hold until close to end of day but watch at 4820, 4810 and get out before 4800
Do not get greedy with your trades, any changes in targets must be because the market is signs of reaching there before taking out your modified stop, and not because you 'hope' the market will go there
Stick to your trade management rules
3 RTH trades maximum, but only take a 4th if you will guarantee a 0.75% day even if you lose. Do not 'look' for setups after the 1st or 2nd setup please
Show extra caution @ open as we could have another low range day if GDP doesn't move things much
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
I was absent from journalling today and yesterday after my morning routine.
I had a really bad day yesterday and all of my trades were either bad or really bad. I was emotional, I suffered from FOMO, and I felt I needed a break. The losses were small but since Wednesday I've gone on a 10-trade losing streak. Yes my edge doesn't usually get a big win%, but 10 in a row means there's something wrong with my psychology lol.
I took a break from trading today unfortunately, and I wanted to trade as the market started to drop in the morning but I was still too emotionally unstable to do so.
I've been very bearish on the NQ lately, so it sucks that the one trade it's good to be a bear, I'm not in the market
But there will be many other days I can take advantage of. I can sense myself getting into 'drawdown mode' and I need to make sure that this doesn't happen.
I still don't know if I'll trade tomorrow or Friday, but it's not because of a lack of wanting to...
I am still planning to post my monthly stats this month though.
See you soon!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Not a very good week for me. State of mind in trading is so important and I feel I ranked low on that. My trading showed it.
There are a number of things outside of trading that impact my trading, and I think I didn't prioritize them the way that I should, and just hoped they wouldn't hurt me in my trading. That wasn't the case.
Goals set for this week
Update your expectations around risk management rules, grading trades, and managing trades- Failed
Buy Jigsaw and start the learning process- Failed
Complete end of month review by Friday- Failed
Complete last Wednesday summary and End of week Summary on Monday- Passed
I'll be moving some of these goals to be completed by Monday!
11% win ratio is hard to achieve, yet I managed to do it
I hit my target once this week, and it was a big trade thankfully. But overall I took so many bad trades and it shows.
Out of those trades:
Excellent trades: 1
Good trades: 1
Ok trades: 1
Bad trades: 9
Really bad trades: 5
9 bad trades, and 5 really bad trades. Remember that these have nothing to do with whether they become winners or losers, but are based on whether I followed my plan, the signs were there, and followed by my trade management rules. Not the best way to end November and start December, so you'll need to make sure you are only taking Ok - Excellent trades from now on!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
5 out of last 6 weeks have been above ATR, and last week we were about 50% higher than ATR
There are a LOT of news and big indicators coming out next week and the week after. Will we see some players taking bets preparing for next week? or will this week be slow?
Italian referendum just happened, I don't know enough about it to get an idea of how that will impact the market but it's going to be something to learn more about this week
Tuesday - International trade, productivity and costs, factory orders
Wednesday - BoC announcement, Post Close - Japan GDP
Thursday - Post Close - China CPI
Friday - Nada
As for corporate news from the NQ components I follow:
Wednesday - Costco Earnings
Expect every day to be a slow range day, but be prepared for things to change at any moment's notice. Do not go in at any open expecting huge swings, as we have had low range on a daily basis
Goals for this week
Update your expectations around risk management rules, grading trades, and managing trades by Monday
Re-read your psychology prep every hour while trading - set Outlook alarms
You have been lacking in the psychology goals aspect, you are aiming to get 100% on all of these by the end of the week. Do whatever it takes to accomplish this. Remember, your goal is long-term growth and not short-term profits.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Consider the bright side - you had a terrible week but only lost some 2% in the process. Even in the worst of cases that gives you another 50 weeks to figure things out
Seriously, applause your risk management. I remember one particular "terrible week" that burned onto my brain. And burned an 80% hole in my account at that time.
Major tech stocks are up but not more than 0.70% pre-open
Banks are in the green as well
News
10- ISM Non Manufacturing Index
Listen closely for Italy and Trump/China news
Scenarios
Open up with some uncertainty, eventually make way towards the 4780 area, we see a pullback there but break it on 2nd contact, we then trend until 4800 where we see the trend exhaust itself and a reversal play come in to drive the market down to 4780-4760 to close
Market opens up bull and we slice through the 4780 on first contact, we see a pullback around 4800 but we continue until ~4815 before reversing
Market opens up bear and moves down to the 4740 area, we find some support there and continue bull but we struggle ~4780 area, IF we do break it, we don't break the ~4800 area
Market opens up bear until it finds a support zone above 4740 (could be the 50), we trend bull for the rest of the day or until we find a strong resistance area and we trend between those 2 points
We open up strong bear and we see a bit of pullback ~4740 area, we continue the bear trend after a pullback to 4750-4750 and we trend bear until ~ 4725 area
Continue bull move and trend bull for the rest of the day
US market corrects ON session, trending bear for the day
Re-read your psychology prep every hour while trading - Set outlook alarms
Remember, you are going in assuming that things will be slow, don't go crazy on FOMO just because things are moving fast. You are however pretty prepared for things to go off on either side.
Cheers!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Thank you so much for this. I tend to blow bad things out of proportion and sometimes I need a reality check. While a bad week psychologically speaking, 2% is 2% and with that kind of risk management on my bad weeks, I have a long time to change things around
This career is about all the individual and the perspective of the individual, so it's refreshing to hear an outsider's perspective that challenges my current outlook. Specially when my outlook is much darker than the current reality.
This comment was great to wake up to. Hope things are looking well for you!
Cheers.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Decent day, a few ticks made a big difference today. I could've ended more positive than I did, but it is what it is. Sometimes these tick differences will be on my side.
First trade taken
Short off the open, expecting a break down at ~ 4760 area
Unfortunately the target that I moved down to was missed by 3 ticks. Instead of walking away with a 17 pt trade I walked away with a 2.75 pt trade. Oh well, can't let that get to me though.
Trade grade - Ok
It may or may not have been part of the plan
Some signs were there
Decent (but not good) target and/or stop
Second trade taken
I got signs that the market could reverse or it could continue. We were either seeing a pullback on the 24hr and we will continue bull, or we were seeing a pullback on the RTH and we will continue bear. I decided to take the 2nd setup but to take smaller risk than usual. I got a good entry and I set my risk above the current RTH high. I was happy with this 'good' setup.
It didn't work out, but I didn't lose much. R/R was ~5:1 so it was a great setup to take
Trade grade - Good
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
Third trade taken
So I'm looking at my scenarios and Scenario #3 is on point. I choose to take the setup that aligns and I'm expecting the 4780 area to be broken, but maybe not on first contact. However, if I can get myself a good entry point before the pullback, I've got a good setup.
Trade grade - Ok
It may or may not have been part of the plan
Some signs were there
Decent (but not good) target and/or stop
Despite being a good trade $-wise, my entry point was not good so this is qualified as 'Ok'
Fourth trade I wanted to take - Not filled I wanted to take the continued bull trade on the pullback, but I juuuust missed the entry by a couple of ticks. It would've been a winner, but sometimes you miss it by a few inches
Fourth trade taken So on 24hr and on RTH it looks like we have hit the high. Scenario #3 is still looking really good as we couldn't break through the 4800. Unfortunately we didn't get high enough for me to want to enter into a short trade at ~4800 so I'm looking for a potential breakdown around the 4775 area
The trade looks good, and I messed up on my entry point. Not a big deal but if I could've gotten a better entry this would've been a great trade.
Aim for the 2 best trades of the day. Only take a 3rd and 4th if you would still be up 0.75% despite a loss- Failed, I need to tweak this a bit though as the only way I can take a 3rd trade is if I hit my target on one of my trades and it will restrict me too much
Do not look at your P&L until the end of the week- Failed, I wanted to see if I could take a 4th trade
Re-read your psychology prep every hour while trading - Set outlook alarms- Failed, I was busy clearing snow stuff this morning so I felt I could pass up on this, excuse or not, it is still a fail
Overall a positive day, and made some improvements psychologically.
I didn't trade as good as I could have, but I traded good enough that it's a better performance from last week.
See you tomorrow!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
