Really frustrating day for me today.
I was bullish going into open. As I thought, ECB did not say anything new, and news at 5.30am caused just a small pullback. I was really thinking that we going to break through 18180 resistance.
But one thing to have a plan, and completely opposite is to act on it.
I also got blindsided a bit about thinking that we going to break overhead resistance today. Started to think that it was a sure thing.

First chart, showing missed opportunities and causing some serious frustration.


1) Price poked lower of the open, there was no sellers at that level, I even thought to myself, oh look, that is great buying opportunity, and 5 seconds later it moved up and I was cursing that I did not press buy button.
2) That would have been good place to scale out.
3) This sudden move down threw me off guard. It happened within a minute. I seriously started to question my bullish thesis here, thinking that we just rejected move above OR-H.
4) Hence I hesitated to pull a trigger here, expecting that it will poke lower. Volume profile as that point was also looking like it is going to poke lower. Instead prices reversed just as quick and went up without me.
5) That would have been a good place to add to long or enter long, but news were coming out in 5 min and I did not want to enter into news.

First trade:



1) Noticed that first touch of pivot usually acts as a good resistance\support.
2) At this point I thought that we going to move higher and re-test high of the day (btw, I was thinking that it would also have been great place to short if price would have went to high of day and failed to go higher).
3) A bit of hopium wrecked me up here. When I entered this trade, I had mental stop just at 140, but it touched it, hesitated, I also hesitated to pull trigger to exit (even though at this point my trade idea was wrong) and then blasted lower and I puked.

Second and third trade:


1) We moved all the way from high of day almost to the low of day. At that point I was quite certain that we going to poke lower and run stops.
2) Exited since we were about to re-trace.
3) Super tight moves and tons of volume. It felt like shorts were covering and new short maybe entering the market. OR-L was also right above. I figured it is low risk entry and it should start moving sharply lower.
4) It did not move sharply. It was stalling and frankly speaking I wanted to book some profits, as after previous two trades I was exactly at zero PnL minus commissions. My trade idea was saying that it should move strongly lower, it did not, so I closed it and was done for the day.


Good lessons learned today about sharp moves like this morning.
Also really sucks to miss on two 100 tick moves.
But I am glad that at least I finished net positive. It could have been worse.
Next time when getting frustrated like today, it is better to turn off monitor.

Yesterday in my prep for next day I got carried away thinking that I can predict what market can do.

So what I have for tomorrow.
First of all, no news of any kind.

Here is chart:


Seems like we have buyer and seller battling it out.
We have sellers at 18150, and buyer at 18050 level (red and green circles).
So my plan for tomorrow is to look for possible strength (possibility of breakout) and if not found, then fade those levels, expecting it to range between them.
Obviously if overnight session will gap above any of those levels, then those levels can become resistance.

Overnight we dropped lower. So my pre-market ideas from yesterday post went into trash.
My plan for today was to play long and expect that we would fill the gap.
Or look for strong sellers to push it lower.

Instead, I did not see strong sellers and I did not see strong buyers. No news day, no OTF it seems.
As I am writing this (8.30am PST - 11.30am EST), YM is STILL trading within opening range. Is this a holiday or something? Where is everybody?

First trade:


1) Was expecting it to test below OR-L, it tested it and rejected it right away, so I went long, expecting it to start moving higher now.
2) Instead it came to halt at VWAP, something that I did not want to see, so I bailed out.

Second trade:


1) It made it to OR-H, at this point it was moving so slow, that I figured there is high chance we will be trading in tight range today. Once it tested above and rejected it, I shorted. This time it went my way quicker.
2). I added when it tested VWAP from below. Originally wanted to scale out at -2SD, but it dropped quickly and then started to move higher, so I decided to book some profit real quick. Again, since I had a feeling that no OTF in market, there was high chance of reversal.
3) It did not move lower and my suspicion of reversal got much stronger, so I took small profit on my second part and exited.
It did test -2SD after that though.

Very slow action. With no follow through to momentum pushes.
Decided not to push my luck and not trade in the chop, and ended day earlier.
It is friday, opex day, no news -> so high chance of continuing chopping.
There will be better opportunities next week.

I wanted to post my thoughts after today's action while it is still fresh.
I need to make sure that someone's else opinion doesn't affect my own.
Listening and reading other's opinion that today going to be completely lame day caused me to completely give up on today instead of looking at what the market is doing and that gap fill has high potential.
When in the morning we did not sell off and ES was strong and oil strong, I thought that YM just gonna be stuck in range. Instead if went higher, touched S1, pulled back, and filled the gap, and then touched POC from yesterday.

So bottom line, after gap down, there was lack of follow through, that should have been a good tip off to high potential of exploring higher, since we failed to explore lower.

Volume profile for today surprisingly looks very trendy (multiple volume peaks).

My bias should remain overall bullish.

We still have area of potential support around 17900, that might be revisited, and we still have fairly strong resistance around 18150.

Note to self:
Keep your eyes open, look what market does, stick to your own opinion, set a point where thesis is broken and trade accordingly.

Did review of all my trades over weekend, and realized that I would have had better results if I would have been entering with two contracts. Instead I was entering wiht one contract hoping to scale in later on, but scale in is still very difficult for me.
So this week I will be entering all my trades with two contracts. That will allow me to take profits more effectively and always have a runner in case if I catch a major move.

Today's action.
We opened with the gap higher, we opened above what previously was an area of resistance.
Overnight moves looked very strong, so I was looking for strength.
But when market opened, there was none. It just moved sideways, very slow, and kind of showed that buyers were not all that ecstatic of those higher prices. At that point I started to think about shorting and aiming for gap close.

First trade:


1) Action higher just felt sluggish and slow. Entered short, with puke point above OR-H (if it would be strong above).
2) That would have been perfect entry, but that rejection also showed me that buyers are just not interested in higher prices. also RVOL was slightly negative. So I decided to add another contract.
3) Took profit a bit earlier, mainly because of full position and I wanted to lighten up a bit (fear). Original limit buy order was at OR-L.
4). EMOTIONAL EXIT. Very bad. I looked at ES, NQ, both were hitting HOD. Bond and gold were selling off hard. and CL was catching a bid. My eyes went O_O and I clicked close, thinking we are about to blast up on YM as well.


Second trade:


1) The fact that I exited earlier and priced returned back to OR-L and trading heavy there, meaning prices are getting accepted, I entered short again. It is kind of FOMO entry though.
2) That would have been much better entry, of VWAP rejection. Hindsight though.
3) Again, took profits a bit too early at pivot point, my original limit was at 18155, where we had HVN on previous days, but I know that sometimes we bounce of pivot points easily, so I think it was a good defensive profit taking.
4) This was a sign of potential reversal. Have seen it many times now. I was already looking for a potential exit, so probably should have taken exit there.
5) Instead took exit when prices started to move easily against me.
Someone with bigger balls than me could have added at -1SD instead, but I am not there yet.

It did go a bit lower after that, but after that stalled and returned back to VWAP.
As of now, it did not break through VWAP, and if I would still have been trading, probably going short of VWAP failure would have been a good trade. Potentially we still can fill the gap.

Area of resistance at 18150 still acts as resistance.
We gaped above it, but buyers did not push higher. Why?
Instead we pushed lower, below that area, and then repeatedly found sellers at that area.
Buyers had great opportunity to crush shorts, and instead did nothing.
Volume is lower than average. Another confirmation that higher prices are being rejected?

Based on that I am turning slightly bearish, looking for a potential re-test of 18050, 18000 levels.
There are major earnings coming out this week and next week, so we might potentially gap up or down.
Also Draghi speaks tomorrow, potentially can upset market.

Today I got schooled by market. Badly.
Below is what happens when you have very strong opinion about what market should do.
Going into today, I had very strong feeling that we going to push lower. As I am writing this, market did drop lower (closed gap that I was aiming for), but before that it went up and stopped me out badly.

Lessons learned:
1. Having strong opinion about what market should do is bad. Yes, I might be right at the end of the day, the only problem is that market can go opposite way just to test sellers\buyers and in the process can stop me out.
2. Going maximum amount of contracts also did not help. I became greedy. And I paid for that.

What will I do differently now:
1. I got rid of RVOL chart, it doesn't really help me, as I trade on shorter time frame.
2. Limit myself to 2 contracts only, still entering with two though.
3. No longer will be posting my view of what market should do. Instead, just keep on my longer frame chart areas of interest, and then let the market show me what it is doing. I am short term trader, trading order flow, having long term views of what market will do is not helping me.

Here is two trades from today:


1) This is where I messed up. I was SO SURE that market is going lower, that I became blind. Market dropped lower, encountered some volume, and then tested that area twice, without finding any more interest in it. Instead I went short in that area!
2) Added to my short. This is a valid entry though. Lack of interest at higher prices.
3) This is my warnings that I ignored. Higher prices started to attract volume. Also poke to VWAP did not attract any volume. I should have exited for small loss here at the latest!
4) Instead I started to smoke hopium, thinking that market HAS to go lower. Well. I paid for it.

5) After move higher, lower prices were not attracting much interest. Entered long. On a bar when I entered long prices lower actually started to attract volume.
6) Poked higher, no interest. But hopium was strong today.
7) Stopped out. And we dropped lower. Confirming my thesis for the day. Did not help me much to be right though.

Second day of getting to my daily loss limit.
What can I say, market is a great teacher.
1) Being in Alex's room is not helpful for me. Unfortunately. So that will be gone. His bias is affecting mine, and I am starting to trade his thesis, instead of trading mine.
2) Stops. When I enter, I have an area in mind where I do not want price to move to, as that would invalidate my trade thesis. Unfortunately, when price gets there, I am starting to think of way to find clues that price is going to reverse and not quitting when I should. Hopium is bad. So I will start placing hard stops. Yes, I can get stop run and it sucks, but it is better than turning small loss into big one.
3) Got rid of all additional charts that I have been adding slowly. Not helping, only provides mixed signals and keeping me in the losing trade. Back to basics, of having just two charts, one with footprint chart, and another one with 30 min chart with volume profile on it.

Here is a trade:


1) Poked lower, and found some activity there.
2) Moved up to OR-H, and retraced quickly from there. No interest. Entered short.
3) This was a warning. Price moved below VWAP but no interest there. If my trade thesis was correct, we should have moved lower by now.
4) This was my original area where I should have exited, as this completely invalidates my trade thesis.
5) Rejection above S2 pivot. Added to short. That was valid entry, with stop that should have been a tick above.
6) Another warning. We moved to VWAP and churned. This usually means retrace is imminent. But I ignored it, hoping that it will move lower.
7) Puked out at the worst possible place.
8) Mad trading right there. Got so mad! At least I exited right away.

Ugh. Another day of hitting daily loss limit and blowing up combine.
Not posting trades, they were simply dumb.

It was an interesting experience. Definitely showed lots of holes.
I think the main reason I blew up so fast is that I decided to enter with two contracts right away, while last week I was trying to scale in, also I probably was lucky as well. Now luck ran out, and so do profits.
Another issue is asymmetrical losses.
My daily wins are half of daily loss limit. That aint right. It should be double of that. Otherwise one bad day wipes out couple of days of profit.

So. Going to keep working.
Will be trading in my own combine (Sim, with same params as 50K combine).
Before thinking about giving myself funded account, I need to complete my own combine:
1. Do not exceed daily loss limit of 500. (more strict than TST)
2. Max drawdown for account is 2000.
3. Profit target is 3000.
4. Max contracts: 5
5. Winning days should be double of daily loss.

Here is combine screenshot for historical reference:

Going into today, I had bearish thesis, expecting resistance above 18150 to hold, since it did previous times. And if we were to break it, I think we should have done it early morning on GDP news.
Unfortunately my execution was poop, and I also took tons of heat (I don't know if I would have been able to withstand it if I was not trading in SIM currently).

I also changed my main chart. Removed footprints, since I am starting to think it just gives a lot of noise.
Added tick chart at the bottom.

I also think I have a serious issue with FOMO. Knowing that I would be right on the move and not participate would cause me a lot of emotional pain, and that is why I enter trades in some of the worst locations. Something that I need to think about.

Also need to define my risk better. It is easy to keep adding to loser, but if I would be wrong on my thesis, I potentially will have to walk away with serious loss (asymmetrical losses is my thing ).

Today's chart:


1) Since my thesis was short, I decided to enter one contract short just to have skin in the game. Now that I think about it, I think it was FOMO, which resulted in bad location. My resistance area was above 18150, that is where I should have been entering and adding. Though I do not know what to do in case if market would have just not tagged that area at all.
2) FOMO, thinking we are about to breakdown.
3) This was the only correct entry. It was in my resistance area, also just a bit later there was also tick diversion, and would have been even better entry. But how to scale in appropriately there?
4) Took partial profits, first one before S1, second one before ON_L.
5) One thing I noticed though in the morning, is that tick spend majority of the time in below zero area. Is this correct to assume that it was distribution? Someone was selling into rally?
6) Added at -1SD. But I think I should have added at first touch of -1SD right after the drop, not after we got extreme tick reading (-1000) and consolidated at the lows.
7) Added at VWAP, thinking that we have good potential to reverse and potential buyers exhaustion after extreme tick reading (+600).
8) One more add after third extreme positive tick reading and price barely making new high. Is that even correct logic?

I finished positive, but feels like it was more due to luck rather than good execution.

Practice, practice, practice.