Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Daily: There were buyers below the first pullback last week, but we just went sideways in a tight trading range. We may need a micro double top with Wednesday's high before a bigger reversal so we will probably go above Friday's high but may find sellers around Wed's high or the ATH for a reversal back down to the 2318 range low or lower. Al has mentioned a probable retest of the December 2016 close which has yet to be tested. Sometimes the market makes very exact measured moves. If the 2016 close is a very popular target, a new high of 2404.25 to the TR low of 2318.00 would put the MM down right at the Dec close. It's not likely to work out that way, but it is fun to try to reverse engineer the market sometimes
60 min: The market formed a wedge top last week and formed a 2 legged PB. Fri created a moving average gap bar long and DB with Thu for a test back up. We have resistance above at last week's high and the ATH. I expect sellers to come in around there.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
News:
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:45 Treasury Secretary Mnuchin speaks
ON: Market reversed back up almost to Fri's high and looks to open inside Fri's range. Very low ON vol. Recent days have been TR days. I expect more TR PA.
Bars
1 Bear trend bar close on low. May try to close gap below but I am not trading this yet. Most moves have reversed in TR PA recently.
2 There were BB 1 creating a doji rev bar with a small bear body. May have SA for more SW.
3 Another doji. L1 short below, but this is not a strong trend to be taking L1 shorts. Bar 2 may be an opening reversal, but poor entry bar with 3. SW more likely for now.
4 Bear entry bar for L1 below 3 but tail and close above 2=weak. Looks like bear leg in TR.
5 2 bar rev for H2 buy above but tail and TTR=low prob. May have sellers below for gap close below and test of 5 and 60 EMA's. Not much further down to those targets, though.
7 Got some very fast selling at the 10:00 report. Bear entry bar. Right at 5 and 60 min EMA. If reverse here, would form small wedge with 2 and 4. May get at least 1 more push down after strong bar 7.
8 Small doji inside bar for L1 short below. Support of EMA's and Fri's close may produce buyers soon.
9 Bear entry bar below L1 short. 7 bar bear micro channel. 1 tick away from Fri's close, but reversal here would be a wedge with bars 5 and 7. Prob need DB/second entry before rev up.
10 Big bull trend bar/2 bar rev but likely need to retest bar 9 close and form at least micro DB before rev up after tight micro channel. If price reverses down let's see what happens at bar 9 close. Do bar 9 STC bears exit creating a tail there or does price push down through.
11 Another 2 bar rev. L1 short. May have buyers not far below at Fri's close or low.
12 Bull outside bar. Micro DB with bar 9. Tails on top and bottom=more TR PA. Bar 9 STC bears did exit given the chance on bar 12.
13 Strong bull entry bar for wedge bottom, micro DB rev back up. I will watch strength of rev and possibly buy PB if looks strong. May try to form DT with bar 4 or 6 high and go SW.
14 3 CC bull bars. Prob BB. Not strong move yet so I am not buying yet.
15 4 CC bull bars. Prob BB, but may get deep PB. Poss DT forming with bars 3 or 5.
16 Bull BO, but just below Fri's high and BDBU=risk of failure. Stronger 12-16 makes me think bulls are in charge for now though. Prob BB.
17 Bear rev for failed BO of HOD. May get deep PB because of TR PA so far. May have changed character with bars 12-16 but I don't like bar 17. Tail at bottom weakens rev signal, but I am a bit confused with PA = TR PA.
18 Entry bar for H1 above bar 17 but tail and weak close right at high of prior bar. Weakening bull move. Target above is Fri's high but may find sellers not much above that point.
19 Small bull inside bar. May have sellers not too far above, though. Prob BB after 8 bar bull micro channel.
20 Weak entry bar for bear rev. Prob buyers not too much farther down around 17 low or EMA.
21 Sellers failing at bar 1 high, prior HOD. SB for 2nd entry BO PB long. OK buy above. I bought for move above Fri's high. I will watch closely for failure.
22 2 bar rev. Very bad entry bar for buy above 21. I will exit below if triggers. SB for 2E short below prior HOD.
23 Exited buy above bar 21 for -1.50 loss. TTR lowered prob but strong 12-16 and weak selling at prior HOD made me think upside BO was getting more probable. I still think upside BO will come at some point to find sellers above prior day's highs, but deep PB is possible and I did not want to risk it.
26 Wedge with 20 and 23, DB with 17 at EMA. OK buy above but may find sellers not far above bar 18.
Daily: Yesterday was another doji in a five day TTR still failing at the March 15 prior lower high. Given the doji signal bar and TTR, there is most likely SA and BB. If we are going to reverse down, we may need to go at least a little higher and form a better DT with last Wednesday's high.
60 min: Last Thu and Fri were 2 legs down from last Wed's high. The 2 legs down broke the uptrend and broke below the EMA. Monday was 1 leg up (subdivided in 2) and is forming a LH MTR. But we may need a PB and one more leg up today before a major reversal. I would expect the 2nd leg up to form a closer DT with last week's high.
ON: Low volume again. More SW TTR in the middle of Y's range. Looks like we will open inside the prior day's range again. I expect another TR open and more TR PA today.
Bars:
1 Doji bar in the middle of Y's upper TR. TR open. Prob sellers not far above.
2 Bear doji outside bar. Found buyers below 1 and at Y's close. Still LOM.
3 Bear BO, but still above Y's bar 79 HL. May find BB around Y's 79 low and 60 EMA.
4 Strong bear FT, but could be 2nd leg trap in TR at 60 EMA. But currently AIS and prob SA. But because of location and context, I don't want to sell here.
5 Bull rev bar but tail on top. Prob SA but risk of 2nd leg trap in TR and rev at 60 min EMA here. I am hesitant to sell because of those factors. May have to test below Y's low before buyers really come in though. We will see.
6 More FT selling. May find buyers around Y's low.
7 Bull rev bar, but prob sellers not far above. Given lack of great FT, likely bear leg in TR and will go above Y's bar 79 low. May find sellers there, around 50% PB and 5 min EMA.
8 Small doji bear inside bar. Likely buyers not for below, around 7 low or Y's low. Let's see what happens at the bar 6 close. Do BTC bears get out, causing price to reverse right there, or does price push through.
9 Price tapped the bar 6 close and pulled back up creating doji. Looks like bar 6 STC bears were disappointed and got out. Price may test back up here, but prob sellers not far above.
10 Minimal bull FT on bar 9 micro DB with 7, but prob SA around EMA and mid of day.
12 DT with bar 5, L2 short below, but doji and room above to EMA.
13 L2 below bar 12 triggered but weak entry bar. Last several bars are in a TTR. We are also low in Y's range. Prob buyers not far below.
15 DB with bar 7, but TTR. Prob sellers around EMA, 50% PB and Y's bar 79 low.
16 Wedge with bars 7 and 12. BO PB short below at EMA but doji signal bar and trend so far not very strong. Also low in Y's range. May have sellers below but may not go very far and buyers around Y's low.
17 Doji inside bar in TTR. Not good signal bar here. Indicating more TR PA.
Daily: Price is coiling in a TTR and continues to fail just under the 3/15 prior lower high. Price has failed up, failed down, failed up and is in what Al would call BO mode. Because of the doji's and the TTR, the next BO is still likely to fail, but one will soon succeed. Since the last failure was up, we may get a BO attempt down. This may fail, though and try to rev up to a new ATH. We have a 10:00 report today and a 2:00 Fed statement that can give the juice for the BO. I see the most likely event is a failed BO down and a strong rev back up from below prior lows or from the daily EMA's below. If price pushes down strongly without signs of strong buying, the bulls may be done till much lower.
60 min: Price coiled into a triangle the past couple days. We are in the middle of a TTR so the BO will more likely fail and rev than succeed. It may fail to the down side, find buyers below Y's low and then get one more push up to retest the 4/26 high.
ON: Price pulled back in a bear channel on low vol. Opening with a small gap down below Y's low. May get buyers around here for failed BO.
Bars:
1 Rev bar for failed BO below low of past 2 days, but doji so not strong signal bar.
2 Now bear rev bar for BO PB short, but bear doji now. Not a pretty open so far unless you are scalping.
3 Bull inside bar, H1 above for failed BO of low of past 2 days. May have buyers above to grind up but no urgency on bulls yet.
4 BO attempt found sellers creating rev bar but bull body. Still looks like LOM.
5 Bull inside bar for another H1 buy above. 3 CC bull bars, 5 bar bull MC. But doji's and weak. Still in a pretty small range. Upcoming 10:00 report may move things a little.
6 H1 buy above 6, but bear doji in weak move.
7 Bear doji outside bar in middle of TTR. Still LOM. Scalpers doing well buying below and selling above so far.
8 Strong bear BO below bar 1. But we are not far above low of 3 days ago. May push through but I am not wanting to sell here.
9 Bull doji FT. Not good for bears. But prob SA for at least another push down.
10 Looks like lots of bears just gave up, but did not yet get above 8 high. Some bears may still be holding if does not go further up. If test back down to 8 close, scale in bears may exit there if given the chance.
11 3 CC bull bars. AIL, but still below EMA and HOD. Prob BB, but I am not buying yet. BDBU is still TR PA, but bulls have advantage in location (in multi-day TTR) and current momentum, but we are now high in today's range which is a negative for the bulls.
12 Bear doji right at EMA. Prob BB after bars 9-11.
13 H1 buy above 13 but doji just below the EMA and HOD.
14 DT with 7 and micro DT with 12 at EMA, but middle of TTR. We currently look to be in a weak bear channel so prob buyers around the bar 9 low for a poss wedge bottom not far below.
16 Bull quickly gave up during this bar but buyers came in right at Friday's low creating a tail and close right at the bar 9 low.
17 Buyers did not hold. Bears getting urgency now. big tail still showing buying interest, though.
18 Small bull doji inside bar. Prob SA for at least one more push down after strong 14-17 BO. I sold above. There is risk for strong rev up soon for failed BO of multi-day range.
19 Bear doji for BO PB L1 short below.
20 Strong bull trend bar reversing up and closing gap below bar 9, weakening signs of strength for bears.
21 Bear inside bar for BO PB short below, but room up to EMA so may go there first. Likely buyers not far below for lower TR.
22 21 turned out to be a H1 signal bar, but we are just below the EMA where bulls have been failing all day.
23 3rd push up into EMA. Tight MC so prob BB and forming lower TR if pulls back here.
25 Exited below 24 for 2 point loss. Out of time. Got to go.
Daily: Yesterday was a failed BO of the low of the TTR of the past 7 days. We will now probably try to BO above. Yesterday was a H2 signal bar but it was a doji in a TTR full of doji's which lowers the probability of a successful BO. More likely sellers above at prior lower highs (from Monday or last Wednesday) or the ATH not far above.
60 min: Wedge (3 push) PB since 4/26 high, but not symmetrical. In TTR just below resistance of 3/15 prior high of 2387.75 where we keep failing. Likely sellers above, but chance for BO here.
ON: Price channeled up in 2 pushes but is reversing into the open. Looks like we will open just above Y's high but below the 3/15 2387.75 level.
Bars:
1 Bear reversal bar at res for failed BO above Y's high and failed BO above Y's channel into the close.
2 Bear FT, but just above the EMA and Y's close. May be OK STC but I am waiting.
3 Doji rev bar at Y's close and EMA, but prob SA after strong 1 and 2 for failed BO from Y's high.
4 Bear FT. Bears looking good, but may find buyers around Y's channel low around 2378.50.
5 More bear FT, SA.
6 Bull inside bar for 2 bar rev, but tail. Prob SA. I sold 2382.75 during the PB which would put my 4 point target just above Y's channel low. I usually wait to sell above the bull inside bar but a little FOMO got to me.
7 Strong bull FT. Not good sign for bears.
8 Don't like to see 3 CC bull bars against me. Exited at close for -1.75 loss.
9 Bear doji inside bar. Picture is getting a little confusing for me now=TR PA. Could have sellers here around 50% PB but may have BB after strong rev up.
10 Strong bull entry above 9. Open is target above. BDBU=BC=TR. Oh well, I was thinking poss bear trend earlier given context of failed BO above Y's high at res and strong bear bars.
12 Got to open in 3 pushes. May get PB here but prob BB after tight channel up.
13 Doji inside bar. Prob BB after tight channel up.
15 Bear entry bar for wedge top at the open. Buyers at EMA, mid and 8 high created a weak close. MM target from 6 low to 8 high is exactly at the HOD.
16 4 CC bear bars but TTR just above EMA and just below open and HOD. Not great prob for buying above or selling below.
Daily: Friday went right up to the ATH into the close to form an exact DT. Because it was right into the close, sellers did not get a good opportunity to come in yet at the high. This may be a buy vacuum into the close with sellers waiting at the ATH and above before coming in. There is also channel resistance around 5 points above the ATH. Price could BO into a strong trend up or down from here.
60 min: Friday broke strongly above the April high, but formed an exact DT with the ATH into the close. The push up was in 2 or 3 pushes depending on if you count the start on Wed or Thu. Either way, the strongest bar is the last bar of the move and may be an exhaustive buy vacuum/climax into the ATH. If we get strong FT, it may be the start of a BO and MM up. More likely, it should fail within a few bars/hours and PB to at least the lower wedge channel line or the low of the larger TR.
ON: We had a failed BO above the ATH and then a TTR for most of the morning. We will open just below Y's close. I expect some FT buying, but also a PB beginning by the 2nd hour.
2 Strong bear reversal off of Fri close. Let's see FT, PB may get bought for retest of high.
3 Strong bull rev bar at ON low for poss opening rev.
4 There were sellers above 3 instead of OR. L1 short below 4 strong bear bar. Bad FT after 2 makes me think this is not strong bear move. More like bear leg in TR. Price may coil here around the April high.
5 Doji entry bar for L1 entry bar, not good for bears. Micro DB with 3, but bad SB to buy above.
6 Small bear doji inside bar. May have sellers below, but I don't expect it to get to far.
7 Broke up instead of down from the micro DB. I expect a test of the open and price to continue to coil around 2394 April high.
8 L2 short below 8 but doji in TTR.
9 Strong bear bar for L2 entry but made DB with LOD/bar 3. Bears still not yet strong.
10 Small bull inside bar for DB with 3, but tail and TTR lowers prob of buy.
11 Small bear inside bar, iii. Bears still on L2 short below 8, but may exit and bulls may buy above. TTR so likely sellers not far above.
12 Another small bear inside bar, iiii. Very TTR so not great for stop entries even though small signal bar.
13 Bull doji outside bar . DB with 3 but TTR so low prob buy above. May go at least a little lower to 60 min lower TL. On second look, it hit the lower TL drawn on the 5 min chart to the tick. I see it as somewhat bullish that price is only going SW here rather than breaking down strongly.
14 ioi, small bear inside bar for wedge with 4 and 7 at EMA. But TTR and channel support makes me not want to sell below.
15 Strong bull bar, but right to top of TTR. May test open from here.
16 Bear inside bar for DT with 4. TTR so low prob short.
17 Got BO but right around 50% PB from Y's rally and now at my drawn 60 min lower TL. Given TR PA so far, risk for failed BO here.
18 Small bull inside bar for wedge with 3 and 13. Rev from 2nd leg down in TR. At 50% PB from Y's rally for test back up.
19 Not great entry bar for buyers above 18 but at least bull body. Signal bar for BO PB short at EMA but bull doji.
20 Bear inside bar for BO PB short at EMA, may get more down here.
26 Had to step away for a bit. We have had 2 strong bull bars up from wedge bottom 17, 21, 23.
27 Small doji on send retest of lower trendline. Prob BB after wedge bottom and strong rev up. First target above is 15 high. Likely reach open if TR day.
