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🎯 Prediction Markets

Complete guides to trading event contracts on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Beginner-friendly foundations, strategies, market structure, and risk management for binary outcome markets.

43 articles · Community-cited
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2026 FIFA World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Trade Soccer's Biggest Event on Kalshi and Polymarket
Prediction-markets

2026 FIFA World Cup Prediction Markets: How to Trade Soccer's Biggest Event on Kalshi and Polymarket

Overview The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in Los Angeles, and prediction markets are running a parallel tournament that's gotten genuinely interesti...

9 citations v1 Jun 4, 2026
Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Cross-Platform and Same-Event Opportunities
Prediction-markets

Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Cross-Platform and Same-Event Opportunities

Arbitrage is the practice of exploiting price discrepancies for the same asset in different markets. In prediction markets, this takes two main forms: 1. Cro...

11 citations v4 Jun 13, 2026
Behavioral Biases in Prediction Market Trading
Prediction-markets

Behavioral Biases in Prediction Market Trading

Behavioral biases are systematic patterns in human decision-making that deviate from rational probability estimation. In prediction markets, where your edge ...

5 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Binary vs Scalar Prediction Markets: Different Contract Structures Explained
Prediction-markets

Binary vs Scalar Prediction Markets: Different Contract Structures Explained

The vast majority of prediction market contracts are binary: a single YES/NO question with a $1.00 payout for the correct side. But a growing category of con...

5 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Blockchain-Based Prediction Markets: How Polymarket Uses Smart Contracts and USDC
Prediction-markets

Blockchain-Based Prediction Markets: How Polymarket Uses Smart Contracts and USDC

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market by volume, built on an entirely different technical foundation than regulated U.S. platforms like Kalshi....

5 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
CME Group Event Contracts: Binary Yes/No Trading on Economic Data, Bitcoin, and S&P 500
Prediction-markets

CME Group Event Contracts: Binary Yes/No Trading on Economic Data, Bitcoin, and S&P 500

Overview CME Group launched event contracts quietly. Most futures traders missed it. The marketing was buried in press releases, the product pages were confu...

8 citations v1 Jun 6, 2026
Corporate Earnings Event Contracts: Trading Quarterly Results on Kalshi and CME
Prediction-markets

Corporate Earnings Event Contracts: Trading Quarterly Results on Kalshi and CME

Overview Earnings season runs four times a year and every time it does, futures traders watch the same ritual: NVDA gaps $40, TSLA rips 15% after-hours, AAPL...

11 citations v2 Jun 9, 2026
Crypto and Technology Event Contracts: Bitcoin Price, AI Milestones, and Tech Outcomes
Prediction-markets

Crypto and Technology Event Contracts: Bitcoin Price, AI Milestones, and Tech Outcomes

Crypto and technology event contracts represent one of the most active and rapidly evolving categories in prediction markets. Polymarket, as a blockchain-nat...

4 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Event Contract Settlement Mechanics: How Kalshi Resolves Markets
Prediction-markets

Event Contract Settlement Mechanics: How Kalshi Resolves Markets

Most new traders focus entirely on the question "will this event happen?" -- the probability side of prediction market trading. They spend hours studying pol...

14 citations v3 Jun 1, 2026
Event Contracts on Robinhood: Prediction Market Trading for Retail Investors
Prediction-markets

Event Contracts on Robinhood: Prediction Market Trading for Retail Investors

Robinhood launched event contracts in partnership with Kalshi in late 2025, bringing prediction market trading directly into its existing retail brokerage ap...

10 citations v24 Jun 19, 2026
Fed Policy Prediction Markets: Trading FOMC Outcomes on Kalshi Alongside CME ZQ Futures
Prediction-markets

Fed Policy Prediction Markets: Trading FOMC Outcomes on Kalshi Alongside CME ZQ Futures

This article covers the mechanics, probability mapping, and practical strategy for trading Kalshi's FOMC binary contracts alongside CME ZQ futures. It's writ...

11 citations v1 Jun 17, 2026
Geopolitical Event Contracts: Trading War, Sanctions, and Diplomacy on Prediction Markets
Prediction-markets

Geopolitical Event Contracts: Trading War, Sanctions, and Diplomacy on Prediction Markets

Overview Geopolitical events are the one category where the market can be completely wrong for days before reality forces a correction. Elections have pollin...

10 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Getting Started on Kalshi: Account Setup, Funding, and First Trade
Prediction-markets

Getting Started on Kalshi: Account Setup, Funding, and First Trade

Prediction markets are the newest frontier for retail traders in the United States, and Kalshi is the platform leading that frontier. As of 2025, Kalshi oper...

6 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Getting Started on Polymarket: The Decentralized Prediction Market for Crypto-Native Traders
Prediction-markets

Getting Started on Polymarket: The Decentralized Prediction Market for Crypto-Native Traders

Polymarket is a prediction market that runs on the Polygon blockchain. Unlike Kalshi, which is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, Polymarket uses smart contracts ...

5 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Hedging Futures Catalyst Risk with Event Contracts: A Practical Guide
Prediction-markets

Hedging Futures Catalyst Risk with Event Contracts: A Practical Guide

Overview Every futures trader eventually faces the same problem: you have a position you believe in, but a scheduled macro event is about to create binary ri...

11 citations v1 Jun 7, 2026
How YES/NO Event Contracts Work: Contract Mechanics Explained
Prediction-markets

How YES/NO Event Contracts Work: Contract Mechanics Explained

A YES/NO event contract is the fundamental unit of prediction market trading. Every contract answers a single binary question: will this specific event occur...

6 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Implied Probability in Prediction Markets: How Prices Become Probabilities
Prediction-markets

Implied Probability in Prediction Markets: How Prices Become Probabilities

The central insight of prediction market trading: contract prices are probability estimates. A YES contract at $0.72 says the collective intelligence of all ...

6 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Introduction to Prediction Markets: Trading Event Contracts on Kalshi
Prediction-markets

Introduction to Prediction Markets: Trading Event Contracts on Kalshi

Prediction markets are one of the most intellectually honest financial instruments ever created. Unlike stocks, where you're betting on a company's future ea...

15 citations v4 Jun 11, 2026
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Choosing the Right Prediction Market Platform
Prediction-markets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Choosing the Right Prediction Market Platform

Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as the two dominant prediction market platforms as of 2025-2026. They take fundamentally different approaches to the same ...

6 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Liquidity in Prediction Markets: Depth, Spreads, and Market Impact
Prediction-markets

Liquidity in Prediction Markets: Depth, Spreads, and Market Impact

Liquidity is the ability to enter and exit positions at predictable prices without moving the market against yourself. In prediction markets, liquidity deter...

5 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Market Making in Prediction Markets: How Professional Traders Set Prices
Prediction-markets

Market Making in Prediction Markets: How Professional Traders Set Prices

Every time you buy or sell a prediction market contract, someone is on the other side of that trade. In liquid markets, market makers This article explains m...

4 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Multi-Meeting Rate Path Trading: Combining SOFR Futures with Kalshi Event Contracts
Prediction-markets

Multi-Meeting Rate Path Trading: Combining SOFR Futures with Kalshi Event Contracts

Overview Most traders who follow Fed policy gravitate to one of two instruments: CME Fed Funds Futures (ZQ) or Kalshi event contracts. Both encode the same p...

7 citations v1 Jun 18, 2026
News Trading on Prediction Markets: How to React to Information in Real Time
Prediction-markets

News Trading on Prediction Markets: How to React to Information in Real Time

News trading in prediction markets means entering or exiting positions based on new information -- before the market fully incorporates that information into...

5 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Polymarket UMA Oracle Deep Dive: How Decentralized Markets Resolve and What Traders Need to Know
Prediction-markets

Polymarket UMA Oracle Deep Dive: How Decentralized Markets Resolve and What Traders Need to Know

Overview Here's the uncomfortable truth about prediction markets: your winning trade is only as reliable as the system that decides whether you actually won....

10 citations v7 Jun 17, 2026
Portfolio Construction for Prediction Market Traders
Prediction-markets

Portfolio Construction for Prediction Market Traders

Most prediction market guides focus on how to evaluate individual contracts This article applies portfolio construction principles to prediction market tradi...

3 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Position Sizing for Binary Event Contracts: Kelly Criterion and Fixed Risk Approaches
Prediction-markets

Position Sizing for Binary Event Contracts: Kelly Criterion and Fixed Risk Approaches

Position sizing is where most prediction market traders lose money -- not because their probability estimates are wrong, but because they size positions with...

9 citations v10 Jun 8, 2026
Prediction Market Account Management: Deposits, Withdrawals, and Taxes
Prediction-markets

Prediction Market Account Management: Deposits, Withdrawals, and Taxes

Opening a prediction market account is easy. Managing it well -- that's where most people trip up. You've got to understand deposits, withdrawals, identity v...

10 citations v10 Jun 16, 2026
Prediction Market API Trading: Automating Event Contract Strategies on Kalshi
Prediction-markets

Prediction Market API Trading: Automating Event Contract Strategies on Kalshi

Overview Most prediction market trading is manual. You open Kalshi, check a market, place an order, and check back hours later. That works fine if you're tra...

11 citations v1 Jun 12, 2026
Prediction Market Fees and Costs: What You Actually Pay on Kalshi and Polymarket
Prediction-markets

Prediction Market Fees and Costs: What You Actually Pay on Kalshi and Polymarket

New traders focus on getting the probability right. Experienced traders focus on getting the probability right and understanding the full cost of being right...

6 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Prediction Market Microstructure: Order Books, Matching, and Price Formation
Prediction-markets

Prediction Market Microstructure: Order Books, Matching, and Price Formation

Prediction market microstructure is the study of how trades are executed, how prices are formed, and how information flows through event contract markets. Fo...

11 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Prediction Market Order Types: Limit Orders, Market Orders, and Order Book Mechanics
Prediction-markets

Prediction Market Order Types: Limit Orders, Market Orders, and Order Book Mechanics

Prediction market order books function like any electronic exchange: buyers and sellers post bids and asks, and when they cross, a trade executes. But the bi...

5 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Prediction Market Perpetuals Beyond Bitcoin: Trading ETH, Altcoins, and Equity Perps on Kalshi and Polymarket
Prediction-markets

Prediction Market Perpetuals Beyond Bitcoin: Trading ETH, Altcoins, and Equity Perps on Kalshi and Polymarket

The CFTC's May 29, 2026 approval of BTCPERP on Kalshi was the regulatory opening, not the destination. Within six days, Kalshi launched Ethereum perpetuals. ...

12 citations v1 Jun 8, 2026
Prediction Market Tax Treatment: Section 1256, the 60/40 Split, and What Futures Traders Need to Know
Prediction-markets

Prediction Market Tax Treatment: Section 1256, the 60/40 Split, and What Futures Traders Need to Know

Prediction markets sit at a tax crossroads most traders walk into blindly. Trade on Kalshi or CME and you're holding Section 1256 contracts -- the same favor...

10 citations v4 Jun 17, 2026
Prediction Markets as a Futures Trading Edge: Using Event Contract Probabilities to Improve Sizing, Timing, and Catalyst Risk
Prediction-markets

Prediction Markets as a Futures Trading Edge: Using Event Contract Probabilities to Improve Sizing, Timing, and Catalyst Risk

Overview Prediction markets have crossed a threshold most futures traders haven't noticed yet. Kalshi is valued at $11 billion. CME's event contracts crossed...

10 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Price Discovery in Prediction Markets: How Collective Intelligence Sets Prices
Prediction-markets

Price Discovery in Prediction Markets: How Collective Intelligence Sets Prices

Price discovery is the process by which markets aggregate information from many participants into a single price that reflects collective probability estimat...

11 citations v4 Jun 1, 2026
Reading Resolution Criteria: How to Avoid the Most Costly Prediction Market Mistake
Prediction-markets

Reading Resolution Criteria: How to Avoid the Most Costly Prediction Market Mistake

Resolution criteria are the legal contract you're trading. The title of a prediction market contract is a summary. The resolution criteria are the actual bin...

5 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Risk Management for Prediction Market Traders
Prediction-markets

Risk Management for Prediction Market Traders

Every asset class has its own risk profile. Stocks can fall 50%, bonds can default, options can expire worthless. But prediction markets have a characteristi...

7 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Trading Economic Event Contracts: Fed Decisions, CPI, and Jobs Data on Kalshi
Prediction-markets

Trading Economic Event Contracts: Fed Decisions, CPI, and Jobs Data on Kalshi

Economic event contracts are among the highest-quality prediction markets available on Kalshi. Why? Because: 1. Clear data sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Cen...

9 citations v10 Jun 1, 2026
Trading Political Event Contracts: Elections, Policy, and Government Outcomes
Prediction-markets

Trading Political Event Contracts: Elections, Policy, and Government Outcomes

Political prediction markets have moved from obscurity to mainstream in a compressed four-year window. What began as niche academic experiments and offshore ...

6 citations v1 Jun 1, 2026
Trading Prediction Market Resolution: What '90%' Really Means and How Contracts Actually Settle
Prediction-markets

Trading Prediction Market Resolution: What '90%' Really Means and How Contracts Actually Settle

Prerequisites This article builds on the fundamentals of prediction market trading. Before diving into settlement mechanics, review Introduction to Predictio...

10 citations v1 Jun 15, 2026
Trading Sports Event Contracts: Game Winners, Series Outcomes, and Player Props
Prediction-markets

Trading Sports Event Contracts: Game Winners, Series Outcomes, and Player Props

You spotted a key starter listed as questionable with an ankle sprain. Game winner YES is sitting at 58 cents on Kalshi. You buy 50 contracts. By tip-off, th...

12 citations v3 Jun 1, 2026
Value Betting in Prediction Markets: Finding Mispriced Event Contracts
Prediction-markets

Value Betting in Prediction Markets: Finding Mispriced Event Contracts

Value betting is the practice of identifying contracts where the market's implied probability differs meaningfully from the true probability -- enough to ove...

5 citations v2 Jun 1, 2026
Weather and Climate Event Contracts on Kalshi
Prediction-markets

Weather and Climate Event Contracts on Kalshi

Weather prediction markets are one of Kalshi's most distinctive offerings, giving traders the ability to take positions on objectively verifiable meteorologi...

11 citations v9 Jun 18, 2026
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